It’s our first big slate of the daily fantasy NBA season after a couple of fun appetizers last night and there are a ton of interesting options on tonight’s 11-game slate. There’s no greater joy in the world than sitting back with League Pass and catching up with all the players you know, love, and have cursed the name of after betraying you and your wallet and I’m excited to get that thrill tonight. For the folks among us who do the research and preseason legwork like hopefully many of you guys reading this, the early parts of the season can be the best time to strike and pick up some victories before the data accumulates and everyone catches up. I’ll do my best to dig deep and help give some of that guidance that could put you ahead of the fields.
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Today I’m breaking down all of the games as I see them but also digging a little deeper on the pre-season paces that I’m buying into and ones that seem like traps to avoid. Strap in, give a read, and tweet me @ChrisSpags before I go Live Before Lock with Fast Eddie Fear tonight at 6PM Eastern on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Milwaukee Bucks (109.5 implied points) at Charlotte Hornets (107.5 implied points)
The Bucks under new coach Mike Budenholzer seem primed for a leap this season (one reason I picked them to reach the Finals in our beat writer conversation with the Detroit News’ Rod Beard) and Giannis Antetokuonmpo seems the most primed to benefit from the ascendance. Giannis flashed his 70+ fantasy point upside during the preseason and with a game that should be uptempo against a Hornets squad under new coach James Borrego who played at the 9th fastest pace in the preseason. Budenzholer has also upped the pace of the Bucks thus far, leading to a potentially under the radar spot to extract real value. Coach Bud’s system also creates more three point opportunities for guys like Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and very affordable new signing Brook Lopez. This is an offense who will put up points in real life and fantasy and I’m going to buy in heavily on them before everyone catches up.
Charlotte also has some interesting pieces under the aforementioned new coach James Borrego that could be interesting, particularly in this matchup with the Bucks. Cody Zeller jumps out as very underpriced given his new starting role and the fact that he’s been an effective per-minute player throughout his career. Kemba Walker seems a bit overpriced to me on DraftKings but I’ll still have some interest in him given what should be a crucial role in this new offense that showed high usage and some decent efficiency in the preseason. Nicolas Batum should also be interesting with him likely at the healthiest he’ll be all year and a reasonable price. Jeremy Lamb should be in the starting lineup alongside Batum and Walker with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on the bench to start the season; Lamb has some upside when he gets minutes but he may not see as much usage game-to-game as he did as a primary offense creator on the second unit.
Brooklyn Nets (103.5 implied points) at Detroit Pistons (108.5 implied points)
The Nets will be without Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll, something that has historically boosted Caris LeVert to 1.02 fantasy points per minute. LeVert was cited by Rod Beard as a potential breakout candidate and this is a stellar spot to get him going versys a Pistons team who reportedly will try to move the ball more with new coach Dwane Casey. D’Angelo Russell will see even more usage than his usual 33.1% rate with those two high usage players out of the lineup, an interesting spot for him given how his price sits below most of the high upside point guards. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson didn’t see action this preseason while working through some injuries and he too would be a big beneficiary if he’s in the starting lineup, though his minutes may not get as high as LeVert or Russell given his lack of game shape. I’d be inclined to go elsewhere at center than Jarrett Allen given the variety of high upside options there but he too should have an interesting opportunity; last season, one of Allen’s breakout games was against Drummond and he put up 37 fantasy points in 33 minutes versus him just this preseason.
Andre Drummond should feast against a Nets team who’s done nothing of note to fix their leaky interior that gave up the most rebounds to opposing teams last season. Centers vs the Nets is a trope DFS players deploy for a reason and Drummond fits that criteria better than anyone with the added bonus of him taking three pointers when defenses slack off him now. Blake Griffin looked good in the preseason and he too is a guy who’s likely as healthy as he’s going to get this year. I like both him and Drummond though their prices on DK seem a bit high. Reggie Jackson isn’t going to be minutes limited after being capped this preseason and he’s a viable play if he works from a salary perspective. Ish Smith has been super effective in the preseason and also has been dispatched to take more three pointers. He’s cheap on DK but you’d likely need to see more of Dwane Casey’s possible Ish-Reggie backcourt that he’s expected to deploy at least occasionally:
A few quick things from Pistons practice today:
Dwane Casey says no minutes restrictions on Reggie Jackson & Blake Griffin now
He liked the Jackson-Ish Smith combo in Friday's win.
"We'll see that lineup some this year."— Keith Langlois (@Keith_Langlois) October 14, 2018
Memphis Grizzlies (100.5 implied points) at Indiana Pacers (106.5 implied points)
The Grizzlies actually played at a faster pace than the Pacers in the preseason, though that could normalize a bit as they hit the regular season and the normal rotations. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley would be the first places to look here and Gasol in particular seems like he’d be a stellar matchup against this Indiana group. I’d love Gasol and Conley to a lesser extent if they were a bit cheaper but at their current prices both strike me as playable and Gasol could be a really sneaky play with where his price is relative to other popular centers. I’d also keep an eye on the starting group closer to lock; if Chandler Parsons ends up in the starting unit given some of the health improvements he reportedly made this preseason with the help of Eric Gordon he would interest me a little too.
The Pacers will go as Victor Oladipo does this season and he’s priced about where he should be. I’d have no problem playing him in the matchup despite the Grizzlies’ rugged defensive reputation. Myles Turner just got paid with a gaudy extension but I’m not crazy about his prospects going against a cagey player like Marc Gasol. Domantas Sabonis should see more run than he did last season but he seems expensive for a guy who’s not actually a starter. Thad Young and Darren Collison could be decent low-owned flyers here and Collison in particular will be a player I likely have some of to afford some of the higher priced players out there. I’m curious to see Tyreke Evans’ usage in a regular rotation but I’m not too excited about him until I see him getting minutes and the ball in his hands with the starters and in crunch time.
Miami Heat (106.3 implied points) at Orlando Magic (104.3 implied points)
The Heat have looked like a very competent and deep team in the preseason and one of their key players, perhaps surprisingly after last season, will be Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside matches up well with Nikola Vucevic, a rare situation where both players bring out the best of each other due to their playing styles, and playing him may be an asset against the biases of people holding last season against him (this Ringer article about Whiteside and the Heat is a great read). Whiteside does get some minutes taken from him by the arguably more effective Bam Adebayo but if he gets rolling those fantasy points could accrue fast. Goran Dragic will likely continue to be up and down and I’m not dying to play him at his DraftKings price given some of the other guys in that range. Kelly Olynyk should continue to start with James Johnson sidelined; he’s always got tournament winning upside and he’s played well next to Whiteside in the preseason. Watch out for Rodney McGruder too; he carved out a role for himself in the preseason and seems to have really developed into a fine per-minute player who plays a lot like a higher energy Josh Richardson.
Based on the preseason pace, the Magic would actually be in for a substantial pace-up in this matchup with the Heat, an interesting proposition for Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic given their usage rates and ability to rack up rebounds and peripheral stats. The Heat may slow down a little without the freewheeling nature of preseason but any increase on their pace that was closer to the bottom of the league last season would be interesting for both the Heat players and their opponents. Evan Fournier is at a good price and DJ Augustin is pretty cheap for a guy who probably takes more usage than he should and will start the year at point for the Magic. There’s a lot to like on this Magic side that will likely go underappreciated next to the New Orleans-Houston matchups on this slate.
Cleveland Cavaliers (101 implied points) at Toronto Raptors (113 implied points)
The Cavs will be led by Kevin Love this season in a spot where I’m sure he’d love to show that he’s still the star teams were fighting over in the trade market just a few short seasons ago. Love has played well versus Toronto in the LeBron Era and with more usage and facilitating on the table for him, he actually may pay off despite an uncomfortably high price. Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood both looked decent in the preseason while George Hill is expected to start the season with Collin Sexton coming off the bench…I’m not sure I’m trusting any of those guys with my life but I’d likely go Clarkson > Hill > Hood out of that group. I am very into Cedi Osman at his price; he’s been a strong per-minute scorer and looked solid in the preseason as he racked up stats across the board. Osman will be one of my most played value guys tonight, without question.
Toronto played at a top 10 pace in the preseason under new coach Nick Nurse and it’s easy to see them maintaining that with the group they have. And given the matchup, I’m not opposed to going with Kawhi Leonard even though I thought I’d feel more of a “wait and see” approach with him. I do think he’s closer to a 5x bet than 7x value return, particularly with some blowout risk indicated by the Vegas totals, but there’s a chance this is the cheapest you’ll get Kawhi this season and that’s noteworthy. Kyle Lowry is a solid play in this matchup and he has some upside with how the offense should shake out, particularly if they do end up playing at an improved pace. Jonas Valanciunas should be under consideration in this matchup given how he’s feasted against Cleveland in the past, even if he comes off the bench like he did for parts of the preseason. I’m not a big Serge Ibaka guy and don’t trust his usage or ability even in a winnable matchup versus Cleveland. His price is solid but I think you’d find much safer and higher upside options elsewhere.
Atlanta Hawks (105.3 implied points) at New York Knicks (108.3 implied points)
Here’s another game where I expect much more pace than people might be aware of. The Hawks are going to run and gun under new coach Lloyd Pierce and Trae Young’s playing style of “chucking up everything” will make him compelling as a fantasy player and an asset for opposing teams. Alex Len will have a tough matchup with Enes Kanter but one where there’s no John Collins or Dewayne Dedmon to take away his minutes or boards. Len has always been great as a per-minute player and his price definitely allows him some upside even in a tough matchup. Taurean Prince can be forgotten by a lot of players but he’s been really good for stretches and with a team that’ll create more possessions and scoring opportunities. Kent Bazemore is not my kind of dude but he too could be decent in this offense and matchup.
I think Enes Kanter is going to plant a flag of dominance in his season opener at MSG and the matchup couldn’t be more perfect for him. The Hawks will miss a lot and not be super competitive for offensive rebounds, two things which play right into Kanter Kanter’s 20/20 statline hands. Kanter doesn’t have Kyle O’Quinn taking him off the floor so his only fear is foul trouble at this point. Trey Burke didn’t pick up a ton of usage in new coach David Fizdale’s offense this preseason but he is the starter in a paced up matchup and I’ll have some interest in him as a result. Burke can put up a ton of real life and fantasy points and if this matchup plays out like I think it may, he’ll definitely put some shots up. Tim Hardaway Jr. will also see some usage; Burke and Hardaway both saw over 1.02 FPPM when on the court together with Kanter sans Kristaps Porzingis last season. Frank Ntilikina will start the season with Kevin Knox coming off the bench and I’d have some exposure to both guys. Knox will still get time to do his thing with a very reasonable price and Frank can rack up a ton of peripheral stats and even get some scoring going in a matchup with the Hawks.
New Orleans Pelicans (112 implied points) at Houston Rockets (120 implied points)
Here we are, the game everyone will likely go nuts over with ownership and deservedly so since there should be a ton of scoring and pace on both sides. The Rockets are simply not going to be as good of a defensive team as they were last year with the losses they sustained in free agency and New Orleans should be potent enough to keep up with them even if they were. Anthony Davis is the first guy to look at and it certainly would be a feather in Davis’s expected MVP candidacy to ruin the season opener for last year’s MVP on the road. Jrue Holiday has had some monster games versus Houston and he’s a more affordable high-ceiling option on this side as well as one who may be overlooked next to David, James Harden, and Chris Paul. Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle will likely see comparable amounts of run and while I’d likely favor Mirotic in this matchup, Randle can get going in any situation if he gets into the runaway train mode that he does from time to time. Randle might actually be more interesting in this second unit where he can control the offense and take what he wants. I’m not sold on Elfrid Payton’s role in this offense yet but he’s priced to move on DraftKings. Despite Payton’s many discussed flaws, he’s scored 1.05 FPPM in his career and just getting time on the floor in this matchup may be all he needs to be useful.
James Harden and Chris Paul are both two of the top plays on the slate and I have no issue playing them as much as you want. I also see a whole lot of value in Clint Capela in a matchup with a Pelicans team who’s been killed on the boards and plays with a ton of pace. Capela’s in a tough price group with Whiteside, Kanter, and Vucevic but all of those guys seem like tremendous options. Carmelo Anthony will be on the floor and get some shots up…his price is really appealing but it’s hard to trust Carmelo providing anything than 15 points on middling shooting. I’d still have some exposure to him just for the price. PJ Tucker and Eric Gordon could both be strong plays too though obviously the usage/minutes equation gets a little tighter there.
Minnesota Timberwolves (104.3 implied points) at San Antonio Spurs (106.3 implied points)
Karl-Anthony Towns was really disappointing in the preseason and I’m not sure a matchup with the Spurs is where I want to pay a premium to see him get back on track. Jimmy Butler is expected to play, albeit likely on some sort of minutes limit, and that seems to be a bit of a drain on Towns’ upside barring Butler’s tirades suddenly providing KAT with an epiphany about how to win as much as the guy who’s never made a conference final. Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins are both less interesting due to Jimmy’s involvement while Taj Gibson is the only guy who should see a boost from Butler getting him involved and creating spacing that helps Gibson’s success. But it’s still a game against the Spurs so Gibson is kind of a meh option. Derrick Rose is very cheap and should see extra minutes with Butler getting up to speed but he likely won’t see enough run to do a ton of damage.
Minnesota played at a top-5 pace this preseason after playing much slower last season, something to note in case there is a game plan reason Tom Thibodeau has opted to push the ball. If so, that makes LaMarcus Aldridge even more appealing than he already is as the lynchpin of an offense who’ll need him to be at his best to give this team a shot at jelling with both of their starting point guards going down with injuries. Pau Gasol may be see some more playmaking opportunities as well and with him likely at his freshest and least likely to be conserved by Gregg Popovich this early in the season, I could see Pau having a big game here that no one’s on. The Spurs are not a popular fantasy play and this matchup could have some under the radar options to exploit. I’m less sold on DeMar DeRozan’s efficiency focused role relative to the “gun at will” spot he had in Toronto (where he still disappointed in fantasy a decent amount of the time). If DeRozan goes off from his first game, great but I likely won’t be as receptive to his new situation as I am Kawhi Leonard’s.
Utah Jazz (106.5 implied points) at Sacramento Kings (98.5 implied points)
The Jazz played at a top-7 pace in the preseason, something that would be a far cry from their bottom 5 pace last season. Sacramento boosted their pace in the preseason from a bottom of the league effort last season so it’s possible that this one gets a little looser than expected (though I’m nowhere near as confident in that as the Milwaukee-Charlotte or Atlanta-New York matchups). Rudy Gobert should feast regardless of the situation and would benefit if the game does pick up tempo given the extra shots at boards and blocks. Derrick Favors crushed Sacramento this preseason and while he’s impossible to trust, coach Quin Snyder using him in different lineup groups could unlock some extra fantasy usefulness. Joe Ingles had a great preseason and this matchup versus a Kings team who gives up one of the best 3PT percentages on the slate plays right into his hands. Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell are solid plays that I’m not quite as enthused to pay the price for while Jae Crowder could be a sneaky value play if he can get enough minutes. This game will go overlooked because of the teams involved and there’s some leverage there as a result.
Sacramento versus Utah is not quite as sexy of a spot and it resulted in a gigantic preseason blowout just a few days ago. I don’t love a ton on Sacramento’s side but Frank Mason in a spot where he’s expected to move into the starting lineup to start the season would have some interest to me. Marvin Bagley did damage versus Utah in that blowout mentioned above and he’s really cheap, though likely coming off the bench with unsecure minutes. Nemanca Bjelica may be a sneaky play after looking good in the preseason and when previously given starting opportunities, though it’s hard to guess his minutes load if he comes off the bench. There’s something to unearth on this side despite an ugly matchup but it may be not be worth digging in the trash to find it.
Denver Nuggets (113.5 implied points) at LA Clippers (112.5 implied points)
The Nuggets bring one of the deepest teams in the NBA to the table this season and thank the good Lord there’s no more Wilson Chandler there to muck things up. The Clippers and Nuggets have played at similar paces in the past and in the preseason so there’s no natural advantage there but these Nuggets will likely score at will versus the Clippers. Nikola Jokic is a great pay-up option who may get some easy putbacks versus the Clippers and his ability to put up numbers in every category make him really appealing in the matchup. Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Will Barton will all see some usage as well and it’s not crazy to imagine they all get going to varying degrees. I’d probably be inclined to play the cheapest one as a result. Paul Millsap has seemed healthy this preseason and he’s got a ton of upside in every spot if he sees enough minutes. The Clippers really don’t have anyone to match up with him. Trey Lyles has been good picking up some of the abandoned Chandler minutes but I’m not sure if he gets enough run to hit value at a somewhat aggressive price point for a bench guy.
Tobias Harris was the unquestioned star of the preseason for the Clippers and put up a ton of shots while also adding value in a bunch of other categories. I don’t love his price on DraftKings but he should still have solid upside despite it being slightly elevated. Danilo Gallinari is another guy to play now while he’s healthy because he’s been a great player when he’s actually on the court. Gallinari and Harris looked like a potent duo in the preseason and Gallo averaged over 1 FPPM versus this Denver team in a game where Harris sat out. At his price, he’s definitely got potential. Lou Williams will have a shot to fill it up in his bench role and even Patrick Beverley might be able to get going at his price. Marcin Gortat’s minutes are questionable even as a starter but I’d imagine they’ll want him out there at least attempting to make things difficult on Jokic. He’s under $5,000 on DraftKings and if he gets 25 minutes, he could provide a decent return. I’d avoid Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for now despite an appealing price; there are too many minutes to suss out in that backcourt with Beverley, Lou Will, Avery Bradley, and likely some Milos Teodosic.
Dallas Mavericks (107 implied points) at Phoenix Suns (108 implied points)
That’s a noteworthy total for this game between two teams who seem like they’d be inclined to run despite the fact that both played at bottom of the league paces in the preseason. The Suns’ drop in pace with new coach Igor Kokoskov is particularly noteworthy after the team ran the second fastest pace last season. That gives me a bit of pause here but given the team totals, the Mavs should be considered at a few different spots. Dennis Smith and Luka Doncic both looked solid in the preseason and versus a defensively deficient Suns backcourt they should be able to do what they want in the matchup. Wesley Matthews should get some consideration given the usage hole that Harrison Barnes’ injury absence leaves behind but Dorian Finney-Smith was actually a better per-minute player with Barnes out last season. I’d have a little interest in Finney-Smith given his DraftKings price. DeAndre Jordan may have his hands full with DeAndre Ayton in the long awaited Battle of the DeAndres but he should be able to rip a ton of rebounds in the matchup as well as benefit from what should be a ton of slash and kick dishes from Doncic and Smith.
Devin Booker is expected to return from his hand injury and he’s the first place to look here given his outrageous usage rate. Booker’s return and his role in the offense are going to be interesting to see with the Suns likely using him and Josh Jackson as the primary ballhandlers. There’s probably too much uncertainty for me with Booker coming off an injury that could affect his shooting but I’m definitely curious to see how it shakes out. DeAndre Ayton will have a tough time in a matchup versus a very similar player in DeAndre Jordan and I’d likely be inclined to pay a little more for the established centers in better matchups above him. But Ayton should be able to get going and if this game does become a bigger shootout than expected, Ayton can rack up boards, putbacks, alley oops, and blocks in real short order.
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There we go, 11 games packed to the brim with interesting stuff to watch out for. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys in a couple hours for the Live Before Lock with Fast Eddie.
