It was a fun monster slate yesterday with a lot of guys who looked like strong plays in this very Switch and Hedge paying dividends for some folks. Today with much less options on a four game slate, we’re going to have to dig deep to find an edge. I’ll give you the key plays I see on tonight’s slate as well as some lower owned pivots to make as we try to pan for gold in fantasy basketball for DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
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HEDGE: Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets
This looks like a better spot for the Rockets’ side than the Lakers, particularly for the higher priced guys, but you’ll obviously need some exposure to this game with the highest team total on the slate. James Harden hasn’t been as steady of an upside play as he was last year but I imagine wanting more than the 30% projected ownership he currently has given the Rockets getting a 6.3 point boost on their season total from Vegas and the Rockets having the highest implied total on the slate. It also seems like a solid Clint Capela bounceback spot after Jusuf Nurkic kind of dominated him last game vs Portland. And I think Chris Paul was actually the biggest beneficiary of Eric Gordon’s addition to the starting lineup with how he was able to get more time dominating the ball on the second unit when Gordon and Harden sit. Paul actually had more upside than he showed last time vs the Blazers with him only shooting 2-for-12 despite the 51 fantasy point effort. The staggering of lineups and how that opens things up would give me some interest in all of those guys in a pace up game. On the Lakers’ side, LeBron James and Lonzo Ball project to be comparably owned and they both look solid while Josh Hart and JaVale McGee look like solid value plays with perhaps limited ceilings (though weirdly Hart has had only good games above 25 fantasy points vs Houston in the four times he’s seen run vs them). Kyle Kuzma has also put up 40+ fantasy points in his last six games and his price has not been bumped to reflect that yet and he’s always underowned, projected for just 14% ownership today. In summation: There are a lot of ways to stack this game but trying to fade it seems like a bad idea.
HEDGE: DeAnthony Melton vs the Mavs
This won’t be the fastest paced matchup on the slate but I find it hard to get away from DeAnthony Melton at his price given his run of minutes and how effective he’s been. Melton remains too cheap here and there are a fair amount of pieces I like on the Suns side including him, TJ Warren (whose price is down despite returning to form and playing a good run of minutes before the Spurs ran away with it in a blowout last game and he’s projected for the least ownership of the group at 19%), and Josh Jackson. A game stack with the Mavs makes some sense though the choices there are a little less obvious; I like Luka Doncic but I worry his usage comes back to normal in a slower paced/less revenge minded spot than the one yesterday with the Hawks. This is a spot to watch for news as well with both Wesley Matthews and JJ Barea banged up in that front half of a back to back; their absences would open up more usage and run for the remaining Mavs (same applies for Dennis Smith, currently questionable to return today). Harrison Barnes might be the play here with his price down and his shot attempts there to offer some upside vs a team allowing 48.6% shooting from the floor.
HEDGE: Nikola Vucevic vs the Bulls
Nikola Vucevic projects to be one of the higher owned players on the slate in this game vs the Bulls in Mexico at 38% expected ownership but he’s in a solid spot tonight vs these Bulls. After two straight blowouts cut his minutes, it’s unlikely that the dysfunctional Bulls do the same (and the Vegas total makes it unlikely the Magic run away either). Aaron Gordon is a cheaper and lower owned pivot and the Bulls’ poor three point defense could let Evan Fournier get going in his return after a one-game absence. I also want to game stack here because there isn’t much ownership on the Bulls’ side but the minutes have been getting a little more narrow with guys like Bobby Portis and Kris Dunn returning to the lineups. The Magic are not too great of a defensive team so it’s possible we see Zach LaVine or Lauri Markkanen get hot and stay on the court and at their prices, both guys could have serious upside. But there is risk here with so many guys who love shooting the ball needing to see court time and the unpredictability of drill sergeant coach Jim Boylen and perhaps more likely one of the Bulls ends up reenacting Marissa Cooper’s experience in Tijuana in The OC than it is one of them having an outlier day.
SWITCH: Los Angeles Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs
It’s a decent team total in this game, just three points less than the far chalkier Lakers-Rockets game, so I’m trying to force myself to like the matchup between these two teams. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan offer some upside in a game where they’ll likely be needed more than they were last time when an outlier performance by Bryn Forbes was enough to put away the Suns, ditto Rudy Gay. Danilo Gallinari is at a decent price to run it back with and while Montrezl Harrell suffers a bit without Lou Williams to help him get touches where he likes but his price is coming down and he still has a ceiling that could absolutely break the slate if he gets rolling. In a night of ugly games if Lakers-Rockets goes sideways, getting just better than value performances with the chance of them moving higher if the game stays close down the stretch could be a way to get ahead of the field.
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Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into DK Live’s The Sweat to catch me dishing out some NBA picks today. Look forward to seeing you guys then and good luck out there tonight!
