NBA Switch And Hedge: The Rockets With James Harden and New Signee Kenneth Faried May Be Must Plays At Philadelphia

It’s a holiday day with much of America off somewhere celebrating the legacy of an all-time inspiration and difference maker in Martin Luther King Jr. But the world of daily fantasy sports doesn’t stop so there are tons of huge contests out there to help you pass the free time. I’m focusing on the four-game DraftKings main slate due to the timing of the early slates but there are still a bunch of wrinkles to exploit and emphasize here that I’ll walk you through in today’s Switch and Hedge.

On a day with a bunch of wacky slates all over, it’s a good time to try out a premium account here at Awesemo.com. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman and rankings from Fast Eddie Fear, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you 50% off the first month of any membership (including ones that have Fantasy Cruncher) so go sign up now!

SWITCH: Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers 

The game with the highest combined total, a nice pace-up for the Rockets that’s the biggest on the slate, and two players who deserve to be as chalk as chalk can be. First up is Kenneth Faried, projected to be owned by half the field due to being the minimum price on DraftKings and reportedly expected to move into the lineup “with significant minutes” after being released from the Nets to join Houston. Faried has averaged 1.12 FPPM in his stints this season and packs the potential of a poor man’s Clint Capela with his mad man rebounding and ability to finish lobs at the rim; if he gets up to 20 minutes or so, he could easily smash value in a way that makes it easier to pay the price for James Harden at 30% ownership. Especially on a slate of this size, I don’t see how you’d not have Harden in your lineup vs a Sixers team that’s given up many a big game to high usage guards AND also puts opponents on the high a slate high 25.2 points per game. Eric Gordon looks a bit too underowned at 2% projected ownership given the solid usage rate he’s returned to the lineup with thanks to the lack of bodies left on the Rockets’ side. I’m not as into Austin Rivers but with him seeing upwards of 45+ minutes in games recently (due to OTs), he’s certainly got a shot at doing something, ditto PJ Tucker who’ll lose a bit of shine to Faried’s addition but should still see a solid run of minutes. Hell even Gerald Green seems to be getting enough opportunity that he could be a nice low owned value. I see nothing wrong with loading up on configurations of these guys because this seems like the game most likely to have outlier performances with fairly reasonable prices along with them.

Jimmy Butler’s status is a key to watch with him currently questionable due to a wrist injury. If he were to sit, you would see more ballhandling time for Ben Simmons, currently projected to be the highest owned Sixer at 39%, as well as potentially a decent opportunity for Furkan Korkmaz if he’s added to the starting lineup as he has been sans Butler in the past. If Butler is active, he looks like as appealing of a play as Simmons to me relative to their prices, perhaps slightly moreso for value. Joel Embiid can certainly feast here with no true center of use available for the Rockets, though he’s also questionable currently with the back issues he’s been dealing with. I’m not buying into a highly chalky Wilson Chandler and would prefer finding value elsewhere, but he looks like a decent enough low floor play for a four-game slate.

 

SWITCH: Al Horford vs Miami Heat

I don’t understand why Al Horford currently projects to be one of the higher owned guys on the slate with 33% ownership expected but I am certainly not too into it. It’s not a great matchup vs Miami in most respects and Horford hasn’t hit a game where he’s hit value vs Miami since the 2016-17 season. I’d much prefer going back to Kyrie Irving after the nice run of games he’s had since the Celtics started to implode a bit with his last game; Irving was down a bit on the second half of a back to back in Atlanta and he’s shown 7x upside recently even at his current price. Marcus Smart is an interesting play coming off his early ejection but besides that I’m not dying to scrape the barrel here with the Heat holding opponents to 43.9% from the floor.

Josh Richardson intrigues me a little as a play to run it back with thanks to him being at a pretty nice price on DraftKings and overall if you wanted a contrarian Heat game stack there are some solid values here thanks to the matchup with Boston and scattershot rotations for Miami. Justise Winslow could get something going today with him shooting over 15 times when getting his full run recently. Dwyane Wade is on a solid run of form too with two straight games of 27+ minutes and over 34.5 fantasy points. There’s certainly some risk here, and I’m less comfortable with that risk with someone like Hassan Whiteside than the other guys I mentioned, but there are some interesting relatively contrarian options here that could differentiate a lineup and have some upside if the minutes break beneficially.

 

HEDGE: Rudy Gobert vs Portland Trailblazers

Rudy Gobert has continued to smash since the entirety of Utah’s point guard kabal went out with injuries, four straight games of over 52 fantasy points, and with him putting up 51.5 fantasy points on Christmas Day vs the Blazers, he’s a guy worth forcing into lineups, particularly if the currently questionable Ricky Rubio were to miss after practicing in full this weekend. There isn’t a ton else to love in this game – you could talk me into flyers of Jae Crowder and Derrick Favors with the former a little more interesting from a tournament ceiling perspective – but with how strong Gobert has been recently, even with how a true point guard’s return may affect his potential, I wouldn’t want to completely miss out on him with 20% of the field expected to own him.

The Jazz’s defense has improved exponentially of late so I’m not as concerned with Portland’s side. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Damian Lillard project for around 20-25% ownership and I could see wanting some exposure there out of fear of missing out but I’d rather look to some other more obviously appealing spots.

 

HEDGE: DeMarcus Cousins and Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers

It was an enjoyable time seeing DeMarcus Cousins back out there vs the Clippers and while he didn’t have a monster performance, the minutes he got (and ones he lost due to foul trouble) are what make him an appealing option here worth matching the 21% projected ownership for him. There’s a decent chance this one gets away from the Lakers with them greatly depleted with injuries to their lineup and the Warriors a 12 point favorite despite the road game but the hope is that Boogie sees enough time to do all the things he showed in that first game but with slightly more minutes. It seems unlikely that Boogie can continue putting up the 2.07 fantasy points per minute (or 36.7% usage rate) he showed in that game but a few extra minutes could even it out enough to make him viable. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson also look pretty solid from a value perspective while I’m a bit less into Kevin Durant and Steph Curry despite their prices being down given the decent probability of the blowout and Cousins taking just enough usage off the table to make it hard on them.

Josh Hart should see more time after being the first man in when Lonzo Ball went out vs Houston over the weekend, though Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram should see the bigger benefits in terms of usage and playmaking respectively. Hart’s an interesting play at 4% projected ownership but not one I’d want to lock in by any stretch because of how low his usage is. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope saw 40 minutes in the Lakers’ OT game vs Houston and he is a passable option who can be useful but won’t necessarily have enough usage to exceed value in a meaningful way. Lance Stephenson and Ivica Zubac could be needed here in the second unit for the Lakers to have a snowball’s chance in hell of staying in this one and Stephenson is probably worth some exposure to with 23% of the field expected to be on him. I’m not in love with the options here with my concerns of them just getting shut down and smoked but it probably begins with Kuzma for me and everything else I mentioned is secondary and only mildly interesting.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.