As of writing, we’ve had some interesting news break and I’m sure more will come with a big eight-game Friday NBA DFS slate in front of us. We’ve got some nice game totals, some hugely important injuries, and a lot of matchups to dig into. I’ll take you through what I see based on our current ownership projections, lineup news, and my research thus far, and tell you whether to switch to a low-owned spot or hedge with where the rest of the field is shaking out. Let’s get to it and break down tonight’s fantasy basketball slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
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HEDGE: Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns
-The Rockets get a 5.8 point boost on their season average while the Suns get a 1.1 point drop on theirs in a game with a 224.5 combined total
–James Harden is expected to be the highest owned player in this game at 21% ownership and that number will go up now that Chris Paul has been ruled out for rest. Harden could spike a serious upside with the matchup now that he’ll have all the time handling the ball. Let’s not forget his 1.78 FPPM and run of gigantic games without Paul thus far this year (though now not having Harden will likely immediately make your lineup more contrarian)
-It’s a nice spot for Clint Capela but he hasn’t spiked much upside recently and his price is up due to his consistency. There are better center plays out there but his 12% expected ownership is fair, especially with some more chances of pick and rolls with Harden thanks to Paul missing
–Eric Gordon is cheap enough and shoots enough, especially with Paul out, to spike upside. I’m not dying for him by any stretch but he’s another “if the price works, sure” guy. Ditto PJ Tucker in a “revenge” spot where he hasn’t done much previously
–Devin Booker interests me the most on Phoenix – he’ll likely have to shoot the Suns into this one and will potentially see some more time at point thanks to Tyler Johnson being ruled out. He has just 5% expected ownership
–Kelly Oubre interests me a little with his price coming down. I can see him having a nice day alongside Booker and that stack with Harden is interesting
–DeAndre Ayton looks fine and his price is down after disappointing as a chalk play vs Utah. This is a slightly better spot but not a great one so it’s mostly a price based play
SWITCH: Portland Trailblazers at New Orleans Pelicans
-The Pelicans get a 6.8 point boost while the Pelicans get a 1.8 point drop in a game with a slate high 234.5 combined total
-Given the total and pace, the Blazers’ side strikes me as underowned overall. Jusuf Nurkic is the closest to a reasonable ownership at 20% projected. Nurk’s price is up after a solid but unspectacular performance as chalk due to deduced minutes in a blowout win and while there’s risk of that again, it’s a nice spot for him where he’s averaged 37.9 FP on the year
–CJ McCollum looks like a play with even more ceiling based on what he’s shown recently, putting up 21 and 24 shots in two games vs. comparably paced teams in LAC and OKC. He put up 53 FP vs the Clippers last game and there’s nothing too worrisome for him here
–Damian Lillard at 9% ownership seems way low. We’ll have some nice PG plays on this big slate but without Jrue Holiday the Pelicans have little chance of slowing Dame down. The real risk for Lillard is his usage not being high enough with how he’s deferred in many games this year
–Al-Farouq Aminu looks fine as a value guy with questionable upside (though he’s been over 33.5 FP in both games vs. NO this year and has a history of success vs. them, with even better performances last year) while Enes Kanter showed the damage he can do in 20 minutes with 32 FP vs. the Clippers. Both guys are in play but not guys I’m dying to get to
-The Pels’ side is mostly a mess still; I could see wanting to go to Elfrid Payton after two straight games with 51+ FP and triple doubles in both. It’s a pace-down game, which those last two vs MIL and ATL were not, but the 9% ownership for Elfrid seems more than fair
–Julius Randle just has not been getting there recently with a solid but not spectacular usage rate, four straight games under 40 FP in which he’s shot reasonably well but not rebounded at his usual rate. Playing him seems like a move to make if fading Elf because those rebounds have to go somewhere
–Frank Jackson is shooting 18-20 times a game and Darius Miller is a nice value guy with limited upside so they’re both lightly in play for me
SWITCH: Detroit Pistons vs LA Lakers
-The Pistons get a 6.6 point boost on their season average while LA gets a 9.3 point drop on theirs in a game with a 216.5 combined total
-The Pistons have been BAD recently, two straight blowout losses and some issues before that where they barely escaped the Bulls. Blake Griffin has looked injured or heartbroken or like he ate a bad burrito for pretty much the last month with only two games over 40 FP since the All-Star break. I’m willing to go to him here and come close to the field’s 26% expected ownership with his price down but it feels extremely bad
–Andre Drummond feels less bad. He’s had two down games thanks to the Pistons being a dumpster fire but a skeleton crew Lakers team who was already bad rebounding is the recipe to get back on track and slightly less ownership than Blake feels good
–Reggie Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury but he had a 37% usage rate last game in 24 minutes while Blake continued his bizarre malaise and put up just nine shots. Reggie is more playable in lineups without Blake but the pace here makes both viable. And if Reggie misses, Ish Smith is the smash of the day
–Luke Kennard is alright at his price. That’s about all I can say for him
–LeBron James is expected to be out due to the back-to-back so there’s going to be a ton of usage floating around. It seems most likely to me that Kyle Kuzma soaks a lot of it up. He’s at a reasonable price and unashamed to shoot
–Rajon Rondo has scored 1.2 FPPM in court time without LeBron (up from 1.02 FPPM generally) and with his price down, I’m into him as a contrarian play under 10% ownership
–Javale McGee has also seen a big uptick without LeBron, going to 1.31 FPPM from 1.17. He should be called on for decent minutes due to Drummond and only played 19 yesterday thanks to the blowout
–Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has shot 11 and 12 times in the last two and he’s a candidate to push some more usage too. He’s $3,700 on DraftKings and has averaged 30.9 FP in those two games
-I’m prepared for this game to get weird so I wouldn’t be too surprised if this ends up a spot where we see more Mo Wagner or Johnathan Williams but with the limited minutes yesterday for the starters on LA, I think playing them could be a low-owned situation with some upside
HEDGE: Philadelphia 76ers vs Sacramento Kings
-The Sixers get a 5.7 point boost on their season average while the Kings get a 2.2 point drop on theirs in a game with a 232 combined total
-This is a potentially destructive spot for Joel Embiid whose price is down under $10K on DraftKings and now gets a team with a slate-worst 48.7 rebounds per game allowed and a pace-up with just 17% expected ownership. It’s a substantial nine point spread here and the Kings are on a back-to-back so there’s some blowout risk but if Sacramento keeps it close, the Sixers could crush
–Ben Simmons looks solid here with the pace and rebounding. I have no issue with him other than this being the first time all of the main Sixers cogs are available for a game in a while so usage may be tight
-I’d go with Tobias Harris over Jimmy Butler at the same price given the passiveness the latter has shown in full-unit situations. The rest game may result in Butler coming out more energized but Tobias projects for a quarter of Butler’s ownership
–JJ Redick is also in play given the high 34.3 three point attempts Sacramento allows. He’ll be a forgotten man for the defense with all these guys back in there
–Buddy Hield got back on track with a 52 FP day where his shot finally fell. He’s shooting 20-24 times a game recently so he can spike that ceiling at any time and while his high usage on a back-to-back could be tough on him, he’s in a nice spot again
–Nemanja Bjelica started for the Kings and that situation gave Harrison Barnes and Willie Cauley-Stein more opportunity and rebounds respectively to not have Marvin Bagley or Bogdan Bogdanovic starting. I have no problem going to both at under 5% ownership, especially in a game stack
-Bagley and Bogdan both seem to not be seeing enough minutes if their role remains the same with Bjelica starting and would be out of my player pool as a result
–De’Aaron Fox is the highest expected owned King at 18% and I’m buying in with his price down despite three straight games over 42 FP, two of which over 47.25 FP. I’m loading up on this game or ignoring it in lineups
HEDGE: Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets
-The Wizards get a 3.1 point boost on their season average while the Hornets get a 3.7 point boost in theirs in a game with a 232 combined total
-This was a nice matchup a week ago and I’m ready for more of everyone relevant. Bradley Beal’s price is down a little after one slightly down game vs Orlando in which he put up a paltry 45.5 FP, very shameful. But here’s his run besides that courtesy of our friends at Fantasy Cruncher:
Point being: Brad’s a beast. His one down 41.5 FP game there (besides the 20.25 All-Star game performance) did come vs. Charlotte but I don’t think he’ll shoot 4-for-21 again. I’d at least match the field’s 18% expected ownership
–Tomas Satoransky looks fine here but I’m feeling a little less than the field’s 21% ownership expected for him. He had a solid 34.25 FP vs Charlotte last time so he’s fine but on a slate of this size that ownership is a lot for him
–Trevor Ariza is questionable with a sore right knee after a dreadful 1-for-6 5.25 FP day vs Orlando. If he’s out, more minutes on the wing would make Jeff Green and Jabari Parker more interesting but if he’s in, I’d give him a shot in the hopes of a bounceback
–Bobby Portis had a nice 41.75 FP day vs Charlotte last week but ceded minutes to the hot Thomas Bryant last game vs. Orlando as he put up a double-double. Portis is solid but some exposure to Bryant to cover the outcomes where he steals minutes may be a wise move with Portis expected to be almost 20% owned
–Marvin Williams is one of the expected highest owned in the game at 30% and it looks like a good spot for him returning to the lineup from illness after putting up 48.25 FP last time they played a week ago. He projects well for me again but 30% ownership feels like a point chase worth having a little less of with him unlikely to have a 30 point, 7-for-10 from deep day again
–Jeremy Lamb putting up 50 FP like he did last time vs. Washington seems like a more likely outcome. He’s no sure thing but his price allows upside with a nicely paced game
–Willy Hernangomez is THE expected highest owned in the game with 40% expected for him and his 24 minutes last game with Cody Zeller out were fairly promising. Bismack Biyombo saw just seven minutes there so Willy’s minutes do seem safe…though this also seems like a spot where the Hornets could go to Frank Kaminsky if Willy isn’t thriving
–Kemba Walker had a decent but somewhat disappointing day as chalk vs Washington last time but his 67.5 FP day vs Houston showed his upside. His price is reasonable so I’d go back to him again despite his recent disappointment in the same spot
–Nic Batum’s been super steady recently, over 30 FP in six out of his last nine games. He looks fine here but with less volatility in either direction than the other guys
SWITCH: LA Clippers vs Chicago Bulls
-The Clippers get a 4.3 point boost on their season average while the Bulls get a 4.8 point boost on theirs in a game with a 228.5 combined total
–Zach LaVine and Otto Porter are probable for this one after both practiced and with both at under 10% expected ownership it’s a nice spot with some upside for both guys
–Lauri Markkanen is still not cheap enough for me with what we’ve seen from him recently. He’s not crashing boards and his jumper is flat but he’s still the projected highest owned player on this side. Some exposure is fine because he should bounceback at some point (or be motivated in front of certain people in the Staples Center crowd) but it hasn’t looked good with him for a while now
–Kris Dunn’s upside should be stripped out by LaVine’s return, though the price is fine enough. I’d prefer Robin Lopez with the nice center matchup but his price is still a little high to feel comfortable
–Danilo Gallinari looks like a strong play to me after a rest day and just 11% ownership is nice with where his price is
-It looks like a decent spot for Patrick Beverley but his usage isn’t there enough to trust. If he works from a price point, sure
-Both Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams look appealing to me here but I’d be reluctant to play them together with how they haven’t gotten there in concert in a while with their shared bench minutes. I’ll have some exposure to both but I’d slightly favor Lou because of how he should be able to heat up with the Bulls allowing very generous shooting from the floor
–Landry Shamet is a playable punt with the Bulls giving it up easily from three. His three point attempts have been down recently but he’s shot upwards of 10-12 times from deep recently
HEDGE: Emmanuel Mudiay and New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
-The Spurs get a 2.3 point boost on their season average while the Knicks get a 4.1 point drop on theirs in a game with a 215.5 combined total
–Dennis Smith has been ruled out and Emmanuel Mudiay should have the first unencumbered role on the Knicks in a while. At $4,200 on DraftKings he’s a very nice value who should pick up popularity throughout the day and I’d give him some exposure close to the field
-That should also stabilize Damyean Dotson’s usage. His price is up but he’s shown 47 FP upside and has been over 32.5 FP in three out of his last four while shooting 19 and 16 times in his last two
–DeAndre Jordan got a surprising 35 minutes vs Indiana and if he gets that vs. San Antonio, he could be interesting again. It’s the Knicks though so there’s precious little trust for anything you see
–Derrick White’s on a solid roll with five out of his last six over 34.5 FP. He does have some downside but his usage is growing and he can pick up peripherals in this spot so I don’t mind him at under 5% ownership
–DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge look solid too; DeRozan has put up 47.5 and 53.5 in his last two while playing 36 and 38 minutes while Aldridge has put up 60.75 and 43.25 in his last two while playing 38 minutes in both. The Spurs are in playoff mode
–Rudy Gay is expected back and that could result in a slight downgrade in usage for DeRozan and White but there’s room for these guys all to have success relative to their prices if the Knicks keep it close
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