It’s Friday and we’re going out big with some early super popular value plays as well as some potential slate-breaking games in the late night hammer spot with Golden State vs the Clippers and New Orleans vs the Blazers. Which spots should you hedge due to ownership and which should you switch to in order to try to get ahead of the field? I’ll talk about all the main things I’m looking at for tonight’s fantasy NBA slate in a quest to help guide you to glory on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
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HEDGE: Ante Zizic at Utah Jazz
With no bigs of any competence or consequence left, Ante Zizic will be needed big time in this game vs the Jazz and their gigantic Frenchman Rudy Gobert who’s been smashing recently inside since all the guards for Utah went out. Larry Nance and Tristan Thompson are unavailable today so Zizic will get unencumbered opportunity to succeed tonight at a tremendous value and he may even see blowout run given that there is nobody who can even pretend to be a big on the roster outside of him and Channing Frye. As the guy projected to most popular play on the slate currently I’m going to match the field and maybe exceed it a bit at 34% projected ownership. I’m also not necessarily opposed to Alec Burks in his first game back in Utah after being traded with him projected for under 10% ownership currently but no one else here grades out particularly well; maybe Rodney Hood with him posting a 33% usage rate the last two games also in his first return to Utah.
The Jazz are a 15 point favorite so it’s a little tougher to trust their side without believing in some Cavs to keep it close. But the aforementioned Gobert could be in a smash spot with a poor shooting team who’ll give up some rebounds with no defensively sound big to limit him; the pace-down spot isn’t ideal but he can make it work, ditto Derrick Favors as a pivot with his backup center minutes. Donovan Mitchell’s usage has been there even though he hasn’t had as big of an outlier game as he did initially when all the guards went out. And Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles look fine enough with Crowder more of a boom-bust play while Ingles feels a bit more cash-y with how he hasn’t really crushed recently in any matchup.
HEDGE: Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets
Aaron Gordon projects to be another of the higher owned guys on the slate at 26% expected ownership; he had a down game vs Detroit but before that had three straight games where he returned value and his $6,400 price on DraftKings looks pretty appealing. Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic don’t look too shabby either despite being close to the higher end of their price ranges; Vegas gives the Magic a 5.2 point boost on this game so there should be some more opportunity go around in a situation that’s technically a pace-up for the slow paced Magic. I’m not buying into Jonathan Isaac as much with him projected to be a value play owned over 20%; the minutes, usage, and peripherals haven’t really been there enough for him to trust.
Jarrett Allen is on a nice run over his last two games though it’s safe to wonder if he may cede some minutes back to Ed Davis today after Davis logged just 7 and 14 in his last two games vs teams in Houston and Boston who require more mobility from the big. It’s less likely to need Allen’s defensive versatility here so while I will have some Allen exposure, I find it hard to give him the lock button treatment. D’Angelo Russell interests me too after last game was a Spencer Dinwiddie spot following him getting called out by Kenny Atkinson for slumping but ultimately whichever of those two are the hot hand will see the most run. And Joe Harris is a mid-priced flyer I never really mind; he doesn’t have a ton of upside but he usually won’t kill you.
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SWITCH: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
It’s another gaudy total above 240 points for the Warriors and we just saw them live up to that lofty number in a game vs the Pelicans a few days ago. There is some concern with the prices and the usage of the Warriors’ side with DeMarcus Cousins picking up his first start of the year; Cousins is expected to have the highest ownership with 19% but with him potentially having a minutes limit and, of course, sharing shots with some high usage scorers, there’s some risk at going too heavy on him. I’ll have some exposure to Cousins because how could you not? But Klay Thompson looks like a better play to me at his price and paying for Steph Curry or Kevin Durant doesn’t seem like a terrible idea even if either guy will have a hard time hitting a ceiling game with so many mouths to feed with their prices so high.
Montrezl Harrell interests me the most on the Clippers’ side and matching the field or maybe exceeding it at 19% projected ownership looks good to me. You’d likely need Tobias Harris or Danilo Gallinari, maybe both, to excel for the Clippers to stay in the game, ditto Lou Williams. Overall trying to load up on this game using some of the value out there is a nice late-night hammer to have in your back pocket and I’d definitely want to force some ownership with the slate high pace and total we’re getting here.
SWITCH: Portland Trailblazers vs New Orleans Pelicans
Here’s the second highest paced game on the slate with a Vegas total of 233 not putting them too far behind the Warriors-Clips game. Portland gets a 5.8 point boost on their season average from Vegas as well so with their prices down a bit, this is another spot to consider game stacking with some of the value out there. Damian Lillard’s price is down but his usage has been up recently; he’s also been up and down vs the Pelicans historically with some monster games and some duds but the pace-up environment and slate high 33.6 threes per game that the Pelicans allow should play into his hands. I also have no issue with Jusuf Nurkic here with some comparable centers having big days vs the Pels recently; he’s definitely got upside at his price in a fast paced environment.
Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic look the best to me from a value perspective; Mirotic has had big games vs Portland in the past and he looked rounded back into form vs Golden State last time out. Anthony Davis looks like a super appealing option with a history of torturing these Blazers; without James Harden on the slate, he looks like the stud of all studs and he’s projected for under 20% ownership. Davis has scored over 72 fantasy points in three out of his last four games and he torched Portland in the playoffs last season en route to New Orleans’ first round sweep. Going to Julius Randle could be an interesting contrarian play if ownership shifts towards Mirotic throughout the day with people catching onto his last box score but currently he looks like a decent play who may lose minutes to Mirotic depending upon who gets hot.
HEDGE: San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
This is another game that’s worth matching the field on with a nice team total that people will likely miss amidst the more obvious spots with Warriors-Clips and Pels-Blazers. Both LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan look like decent values in a pace-up spot vs Minnesota and with both coming off a dud, it’s possible they come in even lower than the 17 and 19% ownership they’re projected for currently. Bryn Forbes could also be a little sneaky here with him the designated swing three point shooter in a game vs a Wolves team that allows opponents to shoot a slate high 37.4% from deep (and the same could apply for Marco Belinelli or Davis Bertans off the bench but with their minutes a little less secure).
Karl-Anthony Towns has not been good vs the Spurs this year or much overall but at home he could be a decent contrarian play. Jeff Teague also interests me a little and it seems like there may be a good chunk of ownership on Andrew Wiggins with his price coming down even though that still doesn’t feel like a great situation with Wiggins’ inconsistent nature.
SWITCH: Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat
This isn’t a terrible appealing game with a low combined total and both teams projected for three point decreases by Vegas relative to their season averages. But I think there could be some contrarian value here if the game does get a little loose with both Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond having had monster games vs Miami together earlier this year. Hassan Whiteside could see additional minutes due to the matchup with Drummond and Justise Winslow has quietly had a couple of really big games recently even though his price is up too high for comfort. If Josh Richardson were to miss the game, you would see some more concentrated usage for Winslow and Dwyane Wade. Overall I would watch the news in this one closely and maybe force in a couple of lineups with Griffin and Drummond because people will not be on this game but there are some guys at reasonable prices with huge ceilings here despite the poor total.
SWITCH: Kyrie Irving vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are starting to take a downturn and with Kyrie Irving hitting a season high in assists last game after all his semi-delusional public lamenting about how he’s now LeBron and the young Celtics are him, I’m interested in a VERY contrarian Kyrie here. Irving is projected for under 5% ownership and it’s an ugly pace-down spot, the lowest pace on the slate. But I think some exposure to him could make sense if the game stays competitive with additional playmaking needed just to score vs the defensively stout Memphis squad. You could run it back with a priced down Marc Gasol who has not looked right recently but has a history of crushing Boston if you want to get extra spicy but Kyrie is a guy I’ll have a little of because I really liked what I saw in that Toronto game for him.
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