NBA Switch And Hedge: With No Kawhi Leonard, It’s Another Night For Kyle Lowry And The Raptors To Shine Vs Sacramento

With a bit of a wonky day of games with the holiday yesterday, we’re back to a standard smallish Tuesday slate with some important news already breaking. Kawhi Leonard is resting thanks to a back-to-back set and more pressing game with divisional rival Indiana tomorrow, Dennis Smith is expected to return for Dallas after weeks of “illness” and trade rumors, and the Suns are without both their primary bigs yet again for a return game vs Karl-Anthony Towns. I’ll take you through all the current news out there and its ramifications and break down how I’m seeing things with the help of our ownership projections and rankings to guide us to glory on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

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HEDGE: Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and Pascal Siakam vs Sacramento Kings

Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out as of writing this in a potentially high scoring matchup vs Sacramento at home with the Raptors on a back to back with another game tomorrow vs division rival Indiana. With Kawhi now out, this is another Kyle Lowry situation where he tends to excel even when he’s playing poorly and lethargically, as he did last time Kawhi sat vs Phoenix and Lowry still got to 42.25 fantasy points despite 4-for-15 shooting. Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam immediately become more playable as well now with Kawhi sitting but their 30% ownership projected could start to get scarily high when our ownership numbers update as a result of this news trickling down. It’s likely to be a very chalky situation on this Toronto side overall but one that doesn’t seem wise to fade entirely. You can attempt some lineups with Fred VanVleet or lesser guys like Norman Powell and Greg Monroe thanks to the pace and usage vacuum opened up by Kawhi’s absence but the remaining big three for Toronto are by far the most appealing pieces.

The Kings are on the second half of a back-to-back and they mostly played terribly as a group in a blowout vs Brooklyn outside of Bogdan Bogdanovic, who went for 50 fantasy points and projects for almost 40% ownership as one of the most popular plays on the slate. Pivoting to a bounce back for the starters, most of whom played under 29 minutes, could be an interesting move here if the Kings can stay in this one with them projected as an 11 point underdog on the road. De’Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Buddy Hield are all projected to be under 10% owned but all three will likely need to chip in big time to keep this one competitive, even with Kawhi not active. A game stack is now officially pretty appealing and achievable with Kawhi out and if the ownership numbers don’t come up on Sacramento, loading up on Kings not named Bogdan could be a good way to differentiate while still rostering the likely highly popular Toronto threesome.

 

SWITCH: Phoenix Suns without DeAndre Ayton and Richaun Holmes vs Minnesota Timberwolves

It’s a home and home matchup for the Suns after they lost to these Wolves over the weekend and once again Dragan Bender will pick up the start with both DeAndre Ayton and Richaun Holmes sidelined for the team’s return to Phoenix. There’s certainly some risk in Bender, averaging just 0.67 FPPM this season and an up-and-down performed in the past, but with him looking like a decent value, I have no issue with him as long while keeping a close eye on his ownership which will assuredly rise with the injury news on a slate deeply lacking in injury news. Quincy Acy also saw 19 minutes last game due to the lack of available bigs for Phoenix and he’s a play to consider as a pivot though he’s an even less efficient per-minute player with less upside. The other starters didn’t seem to benefit much from Ayton’s absence but this could be a better spot for Devin Booker and TJ Warren; the latter is at a far more appealing price but going to Booker after a down game last time out at only 21% projected ownership interests me quite a bit with the ceiling he no doubt has here. Kelly Oubre has been on a run of steadiness recently and been around 29/30 minutes outside of massive blowouts so he should be in consideration as well even though his rising price may limit his upside a bit at this point.

Karl-Anthony Towns should feast again vs these Suns barring something going wonky for him today after a 30 point 13 board effort vs Phoenix last time out while a bounceback for Andrew Wiggins seems possible though his usage is trending back downwards, perhaps a concern with Wiggins expected to be almost 30% owned. Derrick Rose has directly taken shots away from Wiggins over the last few games and I’d be more inclined to go to Rose at substantially less ownership for just $500 more on DraftKings. Jeff Teague is a low-owned play with some assist upside here if things break his way but I’d prefer the other three guys with Towns, Rose, Wiggins, Teague currently looking like my priorities in that order. For the amount of ownership anticipated for Phoenix, there should be more on the Wolves’ side.

 

HEDGE: Luka Doncic and Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers

Luka Doncic is an interesting player to debate now that Dennis Smith is back in the lineup; the popular notion is that Smith’s existence on the floor affects Luka’s opportunity with the loss in ball-handling and usage taking just enough off the table for him to be successful. But some of that viewpoint does date back to earlier in the year when Luka was still getting his NBA footing. Dating back to December 15th, Luka has averaged 1.28 FPPM in 175 minutes with Smith on the floor vs 1.43 FPPM in 424 minutes with him off. So there is a tangible drawback to Luka, just perhaps not as large as one as it seems. With 26% of the field expected to be on Luka, that seems like a spot to hedge in case his run, which resulted in his first triple double of his career yesterday, continues despite Smith’s availability. Smith himself is projected for the same amount of ownership and I’m less interested there, though some exposure makes sense in case he comes out guns blazing with all the trade rumors and unrest swirling around him. DeAndre Jordan has scored 48 and 54.25 fantasy points this year in games vs his former team so while I’m not sure I want to get to the 43% ownership projected for him – especially with the Thunder’s Steven Adams a slightly less owned pivot at $200 less on DraftKings – I think he too deserves a chunk of ownership dedicated his way. These guys are all at nice prices, ditto Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews, so in a slight pace-up where Vegas projects the Mavs for 3.4 more points than their season average, there are a few ways to slice things that could be helpful for a lineup build.

The Clippers’ side strikes me similarly with Danilo Gallinari ruled out; I’m not terribly confident in Patrick Beverley or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander following up the big game Beverley had vs San Antonio with Gallo and Lou Williams sidelined while Williams’ return should also mean that Shai won’t see 17 and 15 shots he’s had in the last two games. I’d rather go to Montrezl Harrell again who’ll get the return of his second unit pick and roll buddy in Sweet Lou and projects around comparable ownership to Shai and Pat Bev. Both Lou and Tobias Harris are interesting plays given that they’re both projected for around 8% ownership but are far more likely to contribute to the outcome of this game than the higher owned Beverley and Shai.

 

HEDGE: Steven Adams and Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trailblazers 

Steven Adams projects to be another highly owned player tonight at 35% projected ownership but one whose price would make him pretty appealing. There’s some risk for Adams, namely that he may spend more time attempting to keep Jusuf Nurkic at bay than actually picking up rebounds or numbers for himself, but some exposure under the field does seem logical in lineups where attempting to pivot off of the higher owned DeAndre Jordan. I’d slightly prefer Russell Westbrook to Paul George in this matchup and with both guys under 20% ownership, that seems about fair to me given the down pace situation vs Portland. It’s not a great spot here but some exposure to those two given their ceilings or Adams and Jerami Grant as decent value plays without super high upside seems like a good idea on a four-game slate.

Nurkic has had some success vs Steven Adams in the past, at least as much as one can expect, and he’s not a terrible play here albeit one I’m not dying to match the field’s 30% projected ownership on. You could talk me more into Damian Lillard with his price at a season low $8100 on DraftKings with him likely needing to shoulder a good bit of the load to keep this one competitive. Some of the other game environments here look more appealing given the defense on both sides and pace down for the Thunder but with a slate of this size, forcing some exposure to this game with smaller game stacks does seem logical with a few of the players still having an upside as high as anyone on the slate.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and tune into Live Before Lock for a classic edition with me and Josh Engleman later today on the Awesemo YouTube.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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