NBA Switch And Hedge: The Jazz Look Ready To Become An Offensive Juggernaut As They Host Golden State

We’ve now seen all the teams in the NBA play and it’s a good time to start making some inferences on where things may be going for a bunch of our favorite squads this season. Teams like the Jazz and Kings seem to be equipped to run the floor more than their reputation indicates while teams like the Magic may not be providing the rotational guys we’ve known and loved for years the same opportunities they had under their new regime. Things change fast in the league and it’s my hope this column every weekday will help you stay ahead of the curve.

And another thing that would help you stay ahead of the curve is to sign up for a premium account here at Awesemo.com to help prepare yourself for every NBA slate. Between the top player in DFS’s rankings and ownership projections, plus projections from our Josh Engleman and Fast Eddie Fear, you’ll find a lot of ways to move above the field with the information provided. Promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE will get you a half-month free on any membership so go sign up now.

I think there’s a sneaky shootout spot in Utah and there are some really unexpected teams projected to pick shockingly high ownership due to their matchups tonight so we’ve got a lot to unpack. Tune in to the Live Before Lock show with me and Fast Eddie at 6PM today on the Awesemo YouTube channel for more but here are all the things you need to know until then.

Charlotte Hornets (109.5 implied points) at Orlando Magic (107.5 implied points)

The Hornets were led by Kemba Walker’s scoring outburst in their season opener and it seems like he’s going to be one of their more bankable stars this year. Kemba’s price took a big jump after he scored 41 points versus Milwaukee and I’m not terribly confident you can bank on him putting up 13 threes and 37% usage rate every time out in new coach James Borrego’s offense. I’d be inclined to think Nic Batum sees his usage creep up a bit, ditto Jeremy Lamb who found himself riding the pine down the stretch for Malik Monk. Cody Zeller was not a great play in the opener despite a low price and he also didn’t see the floor in the 4th quarter with the Hornets opting for more athletic groups with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Willy Hernangomez at center. This matchup with Nikola Vucevic should benefit Zeller more, though it’s hard to trust him without knowing how Borrego will deploy his bigs. I don’t trust the run for Malik Monk yet fully but he’s in another good spot versus a team who played their opener at a pretty decent pace. At his price, I could see wanting to hope the best but only if he doesn’t end up with a ton of ownership projected.

Orlando gets another home game to start the year after Aaron Gordon was the only starter to really see a ton of run down the stretch, picking up 38 minutes while fellow Magic stalwarts Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, and DJ Augustin were not quite as involved. Gordon is a part of the future after signing his big offseason extension while the other Magic players have natural replacements in house or coming down the pipeline and even though the minutes should be more predictable for those guys, Gordon’s role definitely seems the safest thing to bank on based on the priorities evident in their first game. Terrence Ross looked fully recovered from the injuries that knocked him out last year and he’s someone to watch for minutes as well with Ross picking up more run than Fournier. It could just be a “hot hand” situation for new Magic coach Steve Clifford as he feels out his new team but it’s worth monitoring as the Rosses and Mo Bambas sneak minutes away from the guys who’ve been very bankable in previous years.

New York Knicks (107.3 implied points) at Brooklyn Nets (111.3 implied points)

The Knicks played at an exceedingly high pace, the fastest in the league, in their matchup with the Hawks to start the season. The Hawks are more committed to a top pace than the Knicks seem to be so we should see that regress a bit but it does seem likely that the Nets will be facing a bit of a pace up. Enes Kanter and Tim Hardaway should continue to soak up the usage here but their prices are on the rise and that worries me a bit. Hardaway isn’t projected for a ton of ownership thus far in our ownership projections so I could still see paying for him given his scoring upside in a matchup where there won’t be a ton of defense. Trey Burke was decent despite not getting fourth quarter run as the Knicks blew out the Hawks and I might be inclined to have some exposure to him despite his price going up a bit. Burke’s usage doesn’t seem likely to be as high as when he fought for a spot on the team last season but he is still an effective per minute player who’s getting more efficient with his scoring. Keep an eye on Allonzo Trier too, a player who seems due for a larger role as the Knicks’ likelihood of tanking increases as the season goes on. His bench minutes have been really effective but I wouldn’t want to trust him yet as he solidifies his role in the rotation. Noah Vonleh is another bench guy who crushed during his time on the court versus the Hawks but I’m also not sold on his role yet relative to the guys we know need to get minutes here.

The Nets played at a slower pace than the Hawks in their season opener vs the Pistons and there were some interesting notes from their rotation, namely the role of D’Angelo Russell after a chalky situation in which he didn’t see the floor in the 4th quarter thanks to Spencer Dinwiddie’s effectiveness. I like Russell after any spot where he lets a bunch of people down and a paced up matchup versus the Knicks could be really helpful. Allen Crabbe is probable to return to the lineup and a pace-up matchup which should have some three pointers flowing plays right into his hands, particularly at his $4,200 price on DraftKings. Caris LeVert loses a little appeal for me with Crabbe back as Crabbe tends to have a negative impact on his fantasy points per minute while there is a positive correlation between Crabbe and Russell with D’Angelo picking up 1.17 FPPM in games with Crabbe versus 0.94 FPPM without him. We’re currently projecting a hefty bit of ownership on Crabbe so leveraging him into Russell could be logical. Jarrett Allen also deserves some recognition after a monster opening night in a matchup he’s excelled in before versus Detroit. Allen flashed a surprising three point shot and even though his usage should take a hit with Crabbe’s return, I’m a bit interested in him at what should be very low ownership.

Boston Celtics (102.8 implied points) at Toronto Raptors (105.8 implied points)

It’s an ugly Vegas total game in Toronto for two teams who should be at the top of the pecking order for the Eastern Conference crown by year’s end and as a result I’d prefer to key in on the primary rotational fixtures here. Kyrie Irving’s price is way down after a downer opening night and this seems like a good matchup for him to reassert himself versus Kyle Lowry, particularly with the likelihood of Kawhi Leonard defending Jayson Tayum. Jaylen Brown picked up as many minutes as Tatum in the Celtics opener and even though he should draw a comparably tough defender in Danny Green, I’d expect Brown to be a more compelling shot at hitting value if Tatum falters versus Kawhi. Everything else here seems iffy to me. Contrac year Terry Rozier seems like it’ll be a thing but it’s hard to imagine him hitting the ceiling you need in tournaments if he yields even a few minutes back to Kyrie. To me this seems like a Kyrie or bust game and he’ll find some ownership despite the low point total.

Kawhi Leonard is expected to be the highest owned Raptor in this matchup and after putting up just under 44 fantasy points on 22 shots in Toronto’s opener, that certainly seems well-deserved. He is projected for quite a bit of ownership given his price and he seems like a decent bet to hit 5x even if it’s hard for him to do much more than that. Kyle Lowry had an incredibly efficient season opener but his usage took a hit with Kawhi in the lineup. This could certainly be a game where he asserts himself more while being less efficient, though he’s likely to see a defender other than Kyrie to try to make his day tougher. I don’t mind Lowry here as a pivot to Kawhi if his ownership stays as high as we currently project. Jonas Valanciunas can always have some interest to me if he’s priced where he is; Jonas has tournament winning upside even if he does only get 20 minutes like he got in the opener. Everything else here seems iffy to me, particularly with coach Nick Nurse expected to tinker with the starting lineup after starting Pascal Siakam and benching Serge Ibaka vs the Cavs. There are going to be better paced, higher scoring matchups to look at.

Atlanta Hawks (103.3 implied points) at Memphis Grizzlies (110.3 implied points)

The fastest paced team in the league thus far gets a matchup with the slowest paced team in the league thus far, an interesting “crappy unstoppable force meets awful immovable object” scenario. Trae Young has taken a dip in price after he faltered vs the Knicks and this does seem like a spot to go back to him, though his ownership right now looks like it’ll be an ungodly high 30%+ for a rookie whose shooting efficiency is questionable at best. Taurean Prince seems a little more bankable as he carries a similar usage rate to what he had last year on a team running even more. Prince was a stellar under the radar play a lot of the year and I don’t mind him tonight. Alex Len would also have some interest to me after a disappointing opener, though I’m not sure I love his ceiling if Marc Gasol is active after currently holding a questionable tag. Kent Bazemore can be a consideration too as the lowest owned guy getting big minutes in this rotation but I never trust him to do anything so, you know, he can be a consideration for you mostly.

The availability of Marc Gasol is key here as his absence affects the Grizzlies materially, particularly in a matchup where the Grizzlies should be getting as paced up as they can get. If Gasol is out, JaMychal Green seems like a potential lock of the night and Mike Conley gets more appealing to me, ditto Jaren Jackson. If Gasol is in, Gasol becomes a strong play and everyone else goes down a bit. Chandler Parsons was a bit of fool’s gold in the opener picking up the start but he’s another guy who sees a pretty decent boost in points per minute with Gasol off the court. There’s going to be something useful in this matchup but I think we need the official lineup before trying to guess, particularly if the Grizzlies pick up as much ownership as we’re currently projecting.

Cleveland Cavaliers (107.8 implied points) at Minnesota Timberwolves (115.8 implied points)

Kevin Love and the Cavaliers looked serviceable but not spectacular in their opener versus Toronto and Love got a decent bit of run despite coach Ty Lue’s concerns about his conditioning after an injury sidelined him in the preseason. Love posted a gaudy 32.5% usage rate vs the Raptors and that kind of outlay means he could crush here in Minnesota. Cedi Osman has been priced up after a monster opening performance and I actually think he’s still a rock solid play despite that jump. Osman is showing he can put up a ton of stats in a variety of categories while being integral to what the offense does and that’s the kind of role I gravitate towards with the kind of points per minute upside he’s shown, especially if Larry Nance remains out and frees up the rebounding that Osman flashed. Rodney Hood, George Hill, and Jordan Clarkson get enough minutes to hit value but if you trust them, you’ll be the first person to do so. It’s a risky play with them always but this matchup does seem like one where their scoring prowess will be an asset. Tristan Thompson also seems like a guy who should feast versus the very soft Karl-Anthony Towns. Again, that’s another situation that I’d only be comfortable with if Larry Nance remains out though.

Minnesota also should get a charitable matchup vs a Cavs squad who was very close to getting run off the floor by Toronto in their opener. Karl-Anthony Towns’ stat line in the first game looked pretty brutal but it’s worth noting that he was hindered by some foul trouble in the matchup that also kept him from rolling. His usage continues to be a concern though with Jimmy Butler in his ongoing F-U campaign, though. Butler returned and immediately looked at his usual form versus the Spurs and I’ve got no issue deploying him here despite him being more appropriately priced. He won’t have a crazy high ceiling but his floor should be rock solid getting defense from guys like Hood. Andrew Wiggins took a ton of shots in the opener and contributed a little more in other categories besides points but I’ll need to see more of him before fully trusting him. He seems like a decent play at low ownership and if I continue to like him a little, I’ll likely just try to get slightly above the field on Wiggins since we know his many downsides. Jeff Teague was remarkably efficient versus the Spurs and while I don’t mind him here, I do think the usage should go in other directions with winnable matchups for guys higher on the pecking order than Teague. It’s a good spot for these Twolves and they currently project to be underowned for their expected point total and matchup.

Sacramento Kings (111 implied points) at New Orleans Pelicans (121 implied points)

The Kings starters had a frisky showing versus the Utah Jazz that their bench completely let go by the wayside and in a matchup with the highly paced Pelicans, they’re currently expected to pick up far more ownership than you’d ever expect from a Kings squad. Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox, and Nemanja Bjelica will all be in the mix for me after all four posted solid usage rates and performances versus a Jazz team they really had no right to look as good as they did against. If the Kings continue to get the amount of ownership expected with several starters above 15% and some closer to 25%, I wouldn’t go as nuts on them as I may otherwise but this spot and team total look really killer with how concentrated the Kings’ minutes were in the opener.

The Pelicans get a matchup with a Kings team who played down pace this season to hide some of their defensive warts but seems like they may be more willing to run with the growth of their young players. And all the Pelicans do is run so it’s a perfect marriage for a game stack. Jrue Holiday’s role seems to have taken a slight hit with Elfrid Payton’s addition as well as the ball dominance of Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle but he remains capable of a big game at any time. He’s currently projected for an asinine 40% ownership in our projections though and that would make me think elsewhere might be wise. Payton is also projected for an ungodly amount of ownership after not really getting priced up following his season opening triple double and while that should make him easier to fade, he is in a really appealing situation even if he doesn’t cruise quite as much as he did versus the Rockets. Mirotic and Randle’s prices have both jumped but with their usage rate and stat stuffing ability, both guys remain very interesting parts of this offense who also project for far less ownership than their teammates. Anthony Davis is obviously the most bankable guy here though; the Kings have limited the damage versus the Pels in the past by slowing down the game but if they do continue to run, Davis will have their way with everyone they could possibly throw at him.

Indiana Pacers (106 implied points) at Milwaukee Bucks (109 implied points)

The Pacers dominated the Grizzlies in a super slow-paced affair to start the season and they should have to run at least a bit more versus Milwaukee. Victor Oladipo currently shakes out to be one of the lower owned players on the slate at his price and this could easily end up a game where he goes wild in a matchup with a fellow Central division superstar in Giannis Antetokuonmpo. Oladipo tends to show up for these “measuring stick” games against other studs (he posted a 44% usage rate in Indiana’s last matchup versus Milwaukee) and any sort of game stack here could pay low-owned dividends. I’m mostly avoiding the Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis conundrum even though I see no fault in trying to figure that out; Turner’s much-ballyhooed “breakout season” seems closer than ever with his physical improvements but Sabonis clearly seems to be the better player every time they hit the floor.

Giannis let me down just a bit in his opener vs Charlotte after getting himself into foul trouble following a torrid start in which he almost had a double double in assists and rebounds in the first half. I worry a little about the pace here but Giannis seems like a viable pivot to Anthony Davis if you fear a blowout there or want to find a way to cram both stars in. I have planted my flag as this being Giannis’s MVP campaign year and even though the Pacers’ pace worries me a bit (ironically enough) I think he’s got 70+ point potential in every matchup. Khris Middleton continues to be reliable at his price while Eric Bledsoe could go off any night as long as he doesn’t get too expensive. Ersan Ilyasova is a decent value play, though his minutes were inflated a bit by Giannis’s second half foul trouble, and Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez are similar low ceiling, not terrible floor plays.

Golden State Warriors (110.3 implied points) at Utah Jazz (107.3 implied points)

Golden State gets a matchup versus a Jazz squad who’s been sneakily ratcheting up their pace in the preseason and in their opener versus Sacramento. And I think there’s some potential in this game being a very under the radar source of value if our current ownership projections hold up. Steph Curry versus Ricky Rubio, Kevin Durant versus Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, or Derrick Favors, Klay Thompson versus Donovan Mitchell, these are all very very winnable matchups no matter how the switching or double teams pan out. I’m substantially less interested in Draymond but all of these guys make a good degree of sense to me with them all expected to have under 10% ownership.

The Jazz also should be able to get a lot of what they want versus the Warriors and Donovan Mitchell should be a main beneficiary after resuming his 32% usage rate in Utah’s opener. Mitchell can fill it up and loves the bright lights so I’m open to a bit of him even with his price kind of high. Ricky Rubio jammed his thumb and was limited as a result versus the Kings and this may be a good place to give him another shot as a result. He had one monster 49 fantasy point game versus Golden State last year and Rubio can be a point per minute beast if things get rolling downhill for him. Joe Ingles also looks like a decent play given his role, though his efficiency makes me worry a little that we could see some regression to his fantasy performance. I don’t love Rudy Gobert in these kind of high scoring matchups and at his price it’s hard for me to get there even though he did look good playing at pace versus Sacramento. If Rubio sits for some reason, Dante Exum would be a strong fill-in play but otherwise I’d likely stick to Mitchell and a sprinkling of Rubio, Ingles and Gobert on this side.

Oklahoma City Thunder (106.5 implied points) at LA Clippers (107.5 implied points)

The Thunder had some good moments and bad moments in their opener vs the Warriors and their outlook for tonight largely depends upon Russell Westbrook’s still unclear availability. If Westbrook is active, everyone gets bumped down the playability rankings besides him. If Westbrook sits, Paul George remains a viable play despite a price jump and Dennis Schroder should get a long look too. Steven Adams is a credible play regardless of matchup and something tells me he would have no time for Boban Marjanovic’s bullshit if the Clippers trot him out for extended minutes again. Overall though, this is one I likely won’t decide on until we have concrete Westbrook news because the Thunder prices are all the way up reflecting a Westbrook absence right now instead of him posting his usual 35% usage rate while stat hunting across the board.

The Clippers get another tough matchup to start the year after Boban Marjanovic was really the lone bright spot in the opener versus Denver. Marjanovic’s minutes seem shaky at best so I’d have a hard time banking on him other than a dart toss in a mass multi entry GPP and Tobias Harris really seems like the lone guy here I would trust. Tobias picked up 40 minutes in the Clippers’ opener and despite a lower than expected usage rate he still seems like the guy most integral to what LA is trying to do. Lou Williams should be able to do Lou Williams things versus the Thunder’s iffy backcourt defense and his price is super appealing on DraftKings and I’d say the same for Danilo Gallinari too. Montrezl Harrell may not get enough minutes but he should also be able to rip the Thunder’s bench with his putback and dunk attack as long as he avoids Steven Adams in the middle. If Westbrook plays, his usage may create more opportunity for Patrick Beverley, a player with a track record of success versus OKC during his time on Houston. Overall though, I think this would be a Lou Will/Gallo spot for me because the prices just make sense.

There we go, our first week of Switch and Hedges in the books. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys on Live Before Lock for more hoops analysis.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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