Coming off a really nice night over on DraftKings and FanDuel on Tuesday, I’m excited to dig right into this behemoth 12-game slate and see if I can provide my Awesemo people with a repeat performance. So let’s jump right to the NBA DFS picks and strategy for Wednesday, and I hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards.
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You Best Like Your Lineups, and You Best Not Freak Out About Ownership
Unlike today where a lot of lineups were filled with guys you’d think were spawned out of a random name generator (Anthony Gill, anyone?), you’ll probably know everyone in them tomorrow. To take that a step further, on a slate with more than 10 games, you best like your lineups. I simply mean that if you’re uncomfortable with anything you’ve put together, change it up because it shouldn’t be that hard. Of course, there will be frisky sub-$4,000 value that emerges which could help jam multiple studs into your NBA DFS lineups. But for the most part, the super thin plays you’re forced into on a three-gamer should be gone.
That’s because increased slate size leads to increased opportunities for value to emerge, especially in the year 2021, where things are changing constantly. There are also far more viable pivots among high-end plays, where simply going up or down $100 can lead to a low-owned play with comparable upside. For instance, De’Aaron Fox, Malcolm Brogdon and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are $8,700, $8,600 and $8,500 on DraftKings, respectively. Coming off Monday’s 60-spot and a questionable Domantas Sabonis, I would expect Brogdon to carry the most ownership of those three at the position. But right next to him in both directions are high-upside pivots at almost guaranteed single-digit ownership.
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Plus, would Brogdon’s ownership really get too out of control anyways? There are so many plays at every price tier of every position, so ownership naturally spreads itself out on these bigger slates. Of course, if we had someone like DeMarcus Cousins and his laughable $6,000 DraftKings tag on this slate, he’d still be mega-chalk. But even he would see some reduction to the 70-plus percent ownership he was boasting Tuesday. It would be hard for him to reach those levels Wednesday if only because there are significantly more options to choose from. So don’t freak out about ownership either, as there should be plenty of opportunities to get different without having to try too hard.
This was all a fanciful way of trying to hammer home one major point: Just play the good plays on slates this size. It shouldn’t be too hard at all, so don’t overcomplicate things. If you like everyone in your lineup, you’re doing it right. If not, you better be trying to jam in three $10,000 studs or you’re doing it wrong.
Heat of the Moment, and the Wizarding World of Bradley Beal
Let me preface this by saying I have no idea what’s going to happen here. I’ve had a sick sixth sense about injury news since entering the NBA DFS space, and I couldn’t be further from having a read on the statuses of Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Gabe Vincent for Wednesday. To further complicate matters, Avery Bradley is now questionable to return if he can pass health-and-safety protocols, so that’s another body that might muck up value for Miami.
However, regardless of how this situation pans out, there should be interest in a $8,600 Bam Adebayo. No question, Nikola Jokic has been revelatory on the defensive end during this young season. But depending on how this injury news shakes out, there is no hope for the Heat in this spot without a big line from Adebayo. He’d instantly become one of my favorite plays on the slate should Herro and Dragic take a seat, as I can’t imagine any other main beneficiary for that extra usage.
One other team I have my eye on for Wednesday is the Wizards. After letting down the entire NBA DFS industry on Tuesday by mustering up only 88 points as a team, they’ll face off against the Pelicans in New Orleans on the second half of their back-to-back. History supports this being a spot where teams rest Russell Westbrook, so be prepared to head right back to the well with the Wizards. Bradley Beal would once again jump off the page at the shooting guard position, especially on FanDuel where you have to roster two. But he still sits in a class of his own at the position on both sites, especially with the stark decrease to James Harden‘s production since Kyrie Irving‘s return. Beal might be my one exception to ownership tomorrow; no matter how high it gets, I plan on being over the field.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups
- It is hard to talk through every scenario of every game the night before with so much news left to unfold. Luckily, the Deep Dive written by Awesemo’s own Adam Scherer, will do just that for you tomorrow. It’s simply the most comprehensive game-by-game guide in the NBA DFS industry, and it’s completely free this year. Use that to your advantage.
- Devin Booker is sitting again for the Suns, which opens up opportunity for Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton to run the show. Both feel like they will be appropriately popular plays for tomorrow.
- Just play Brandon Ingram and Joel Embiid.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
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