NBA DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy 3/18

Never thought I’d be so happy about breaking even on Wednesday, but after my brutal stretch to start the week, it felt more like a win. It was nice to hit on near-100% levels of James Harden and Kevin Porter Jr. on FanDuel, and I could have had some sweats had I followed my instinct to jam some more Robert Williams into my life. Still, my two bets hit, as the Warriors covered -12.5 and the Nets won outright despite being underdogs once Kyrie Irving was ruled out. So despite not being purely fantasy-related, I’m happy to ride a tiny bit of momentum into Thursday. With that said, let’s find some NBA DFS picks and strategies to utilize on this six-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Be sure to check out the Slate Starter podcast, featuring yours truly and Rynpak, to get the first look at the slate and make NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!

NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | March 18

My Favorite Game is WHAT?

One of my favorite things about writing this article the evening before is I have no true projections to base a lot of my takes on. That gives me an opportunity to avoid groupthink in a way that can be difficult when certain players pop at the top of Fantasy Cruncher the next day. And while I may not have all my minutes allocations done before I go to bed, I certainly have a rough idea of what studs I’ll be targeting and where a lot of my value will be coming from. Normally it’s not too hard to find; target the most injury-laden team or highest-total game there is and you’re most likely right.

With that said, I’m fully aware how insane it might sound that my favorite game tonight could very well be the lowest-totaled one on the board: Magic – Knicks. Every Knicks guard has some sort of injury designation that leans towards them being out besides Frank Ntilikina (no thanks) and Alec Burks (oh no). The Magic have three massive question marks in Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier. Plus, there are obvious studs in Nikola Vucevic and Julius Randle to be targeting should all that injury news break in their direction.

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I do hate this game locks at 7:30 p.m. EST, and there is a sizable gap between the first three games and the three night games tipping off at 10 p.m. EST. If late news breaks that opens up value, I’m sure I will be kicking myself for wasting roster spots because I prioritized plays in a game with a 200-ish total. But still, what makes this game so intriguing to me is I feel like I’ll know what to do with it no matter what. If Immanuel Quickley gives it a go, he will be playable everywhere. If Ross and/or Fournier end up active, all systems will be go for them. And if everyone sits, stars-and-scrubs up the entire festivities.

There are obviously a number of other places we can turn to on this slate. Mike Conley was already ruled out for injury management, so I’m expecting some increased interest in Jazz pieces. We should also have the Clint Capela news that has made John Collins a plug-and-play of late, although he has seen a price bump this time around. But the security in minutes on the Knicks side due to the Tom Thibodeau effect, plus the easy stay-away nature of the Magic side should everyone play, makes this an intriguing spot for such a slow-paced game.

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The C.J. McCollum Effect on Damian Lillard

Tuesday was unprofitable for me due to one reason and one reason alone: I was low on Damian Lillard. Going against everything I thought I knew about NBA DFS, he had by far his best game in a month despite the return of sidekick C.J. McCollum and his 28% usage rate. Sure, the matchup against the Pelicans was elite. And sure, it’s Lillard, who can pop for ceiling games whenever. But the way he went about his 50-point, 10-assist, 75 DraftKings points performance was shocking if only because McCollum played more minutes than I expected (26) and actually put up his exact season usage in his first game back (28%).

In hindsight, there were two major mistakes I made in this scenario:

1) Salary didn’t matter on that slate due to so much elite value. Lillard was still the highest-projected guard I had, so not getting to his 16% ownership on DraftKings or even sniffing his 30% ownership in the $3.33 on FanDuel was, for all intents and purposes, dumb.

2) Even though I’d prefer the 1.45 DraftKings points per minute he has averaged in his 1,022 minutes with McCollum off the floor this season, Lillard is still averaging 1.28 in 351 minutes alongside him. That gives him a 46.08 projection in 36 minutes of a neutral matchup, and the Pelicans (second-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA) are certainly not a neutral matchup.

So how do we deal with Lillard on Thursday? It sounds gross to say, but barring a plethora of value emerging, I’m going to have to stomach another fade on DraftKings. He received a price bump up to $11,000, and I can simply prioritize LeBron James for $300 less. There is also tighter pricing over there, so hitting on your studs carries extra weight.

For FanDuel, it will completely depend on ownership for me. My assumption is it’ll be inflated due to Tuesday’s massive outing, but you never really know until that initial run in the morning. There is only one other player in his price range — Russell Westbrook — and paying $100 more against the Jazz isn’t in my plans. That should make him pop up in at least a few lineups for me. However, there is a massive discount to roster Trae Young at $8,800 or Chris Paul down at $6,900 against the Timberwolves. So as much as I might regret it, Thursday will probably have to be another light Lillard day for me.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/18/2021″ team=”suns”]

Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

While I don’t have that Magic – Knicks line yet, I have the Jazz – Wizards line, which comes in close to yesterday’s at 235. Still, unless there’s injury news from the team out of the nation’s capital, it is basically the inverse of their spot in Wednesday’s fast-moving Kings matchup, and I’ll be going elsewhere.
Moses Brown was a smash beyond smash on Tuesday at massive ownership. He remains a discounted $4,300 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel, but Al Horford is off the injury report as of writing this. Should Horford give it a go after two days of rest, it would be a tough ask to roster him. But if Horford ends up sitting again for whatever reason, expect another 50%-plus ownership day for Brown.
Just play DeVonte’ Graham.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.