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The NBA Slate Starter: NBA DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Wednesday, 3/31

Eric Lindquist

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NBA best bets, betting odds, picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Jazz today with expert advice from Awesemo's betting tools & simulations.

Tuesday was another wild one, as Paul George was ruled out post lock once more (and this time accompanied by teammate Marcus Morris). Only difference from Monday is the Clippers failed to come through this time, leaving a lot to be desired in their stunning loss to a miserable Magic squad. While Russell Westbrook and Gordon Hayward certainly came through as chalk, an early John Collins exit led to some big Hawks stat lines that became necessities to win the day. I had none, so on to tomorrow we go; let’s find a few NBA DFS picks and strategies to take down some tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Be sure to check out the Slate Starter podcast, featuring yours truly and Rynpak, to get the first look at the slate and make NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!


NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | March 31

And All That Jazz

There is another double-digit number of games on tap this evening, which means a plethora of value options will no doubt open up as the day goes on. There is guaranteed to be news that makes jamming in studs exponentially easier, and the slate will change its complexion more than a few times. However, it will be tough to beat the early infusion of value received late Tuesday night when Donovan Mitchell was ruled out for tonight’s game due to a personal matter.

That makes the Jazz the team t0 target right from the get-go on this slate. The two go-to plays in this situation have historically been Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson, and there’s no doubt they’ll garner some scary-large ownership this time around too. And rightfully so, as they’re priced below $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and certainly see the biggest minutes increase in Mitchell’s absence. Plus, Clarkson sees his usage increase from 28.1% to 30.4% with Mitchell off the floor, while Ingles’ boost comes in the assist rate department where his 22.8% assist percentage becomes 24.9% in Mitchell’s absence.

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But my favorite play from this team tomorrow is unquestionably Mike Conley, who is priced all the way down to $6,000 on FanDuel and an even lower $5,800 on DraftKings. He sees the exact same 1.09 DraftKings points per minute rate on the season with or without Mitchell on the floor, but the minutes should certainly be in store for a bump. Plus, fellow Awesemo analyst Greg Ehrenberg talks a lot about a player’s historical pricing, and this is the first time all season Conley has had a sub-$6,000 price tag. That makes now the time to jump in, although he too should carry a crazy amount of ownership in this uptempo spot versus a Grizzlies team ranking sixth in pace this season.

Lastly, one can certainly turn to Rudy Gobert as an elite play as well, who sees 0.10 bump to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the floor this season. He has eclipsed 40 fantasy points his last two despite seeing under 30 minutes due to blowout victories, and now he gets a matchup opposite Jonas Valanciunas that he’s fared well in twice already this season. Without Mitchell present, expect Gobert to make that three straight; he makes for one of the better tournament center plays on DraftKings.


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Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

  • I could have written an entire section on the impending Bulls news but took the layup with emphasizing the core Jazz players. But let it be known: If there is no word on Zach LaVine‘s status pre-lock tomorrow, this could be another Clippers-like situation where the top values on the slate goes way under-owned. I already have interest in Tomas Satoransky, Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic, but all three elevate to priorities should LaVine sit.
  • Andre Drummond is $5,200 on FanDuel and not even in the player pool on DraftKings. That’s where the analysis ends, as it’s hard to fathom that type of incompetence; get ready for some early season DeMarcus Cousins-esque ownership on him tomorrow.
  • Kristaps Porzingis has been too good of late, so apparently DraftKings felt the need to drop his price $200 after another solid outing. Take the discount, as he provides a ton of upside for just $7,900.
  • It might sound boring to reiterate how important it is to stay ahead of news in NBA DFS, but it’s simply that essential. As always, follow the Newzgod and all of his news endeavors at the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle. He’ll be the first on the scene for all the injury and lineup information you need to stay ahead of the game.
  • James Harden against the Rockets? Just play James Harden.

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