NBA DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy 4/20

It had been a long while since deep diving on a player in the Slate Starter was all for naught, but that’s certainly the case from yesterday’s article with Bam Adebayo. His absence, Jimmy Butler‘s absence and seemingly half the team’s absence resulted in some fantastic Heat value. As brutal as that can be to break down players who end up getting ruled out, it will certainly happen more and more as the regular season winds down. Stay tuned to the NewzGod’s fine work at the @AwesemoNBA Twitter feed at all times, and keep apprised of all the injury news before anywhere else. With that said, let’s target a few NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel that not only play, but help take us to the top on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

Be sure to check out the Slate Starter podcast, featuring yours truly and Rynpak, to get the first look at the slate and make NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!

NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | April 20

The DeAndre Jordan Conundrum

As the regular season inches towards the finish line, expect the teams with title aspirations to be resting players as much and as often as they can. Sure, playoff seeding is important too, but health for the likes of the Lakers and Nets trumps all, as it’s impossible to win a championship without their superstars in tiptop shape. That’s why Kevin Durant is slowly acclimating back to game shape and getting the quick hook whenever something as simple as a thigh contusion like he sustained on Sunday takes place. He has already been ruled out for Tuesday, resulting in a Vegas line that has the Pelicans listed as 2-point home favorites.

Considering Durant played only four minutes of that 109-107 loss to the Heat on Sunday, there is a pretty great box score to draw assumptions for who to play on Tuesday night — or at least that was the hope until there was one glaring omission on the PopcornMachine.net game log:

That’s right, DeAndre Jordan did not play. Apparently after a poor start against the Hornets where the Nets won by 15 and yet Jordan went for a -14 as a starter, he fell out of favor and didn’t touch the floor whatsoever against the Heat. That is a surprising development considering LaMarcus Aldridge’s recent retirement and no other true center on the roster. And while plus/minus is normally a noisy statistic, look at the far right column courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com:

NBA DFS daily fantasy basketball DraftKings & FanDUel picks, strategy, analysis

In 13 of Jordan’s last 14 games he’s appeared, the Nets have lost ground with him on the floor. That is absolutely astounding because 1) Nets are a very good basketball team and every player should be backpedaling into some plus outputs by default, and 2) the Nets were outright winners in 11 of them.

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Now, here’s the conundrum: No matter how out of favor Jordan is, one would have to assume he will be forced into duty on Tuesday with Nicolas Claxton entering the league’s health and safety protocols. But it is anyone’s guess what that run could look like in a reserve role, and no matter what, Jordan will still garner crazy high ownership whether he’s starting or not at his super-low $3,900 salary on DraftKings. That makes this one of the most pivotal spots to get right on the slate. As a non-starter Jordan could legitimately go for 40 fantasy points in 22 minutes, 15 fantasy points in 12 minutes, or not see the floor whatsoever, and none would be a surprise.

Fortunately, this Nets – Pelicans game is one of three games locking at 7:30 p.m. EST, so that starting lineup should be known well in advance of lock. And if Jordan is in it, there should be no reason to think he can’t rostered ad nauseam on DraftKings (borderline unnecessary still at $4,600 on FanDuel). But if he’s not in it, there could be some uncomfortable, make-or-break decisions on Tuesday. That’s why it’s imperative to catch all of our shows at the Awesemo YouTube channel where they’ll surely be breaking this situation down in depth leading up to lock.

Mo Bamba, Mo Problems

One of the more interesting teams to dissect for NBA DFS purposes these past few weeks has undoubtedly been the Magic. With the upheaval of their roster, a bunch of injuries nightly and an abundance of usage up for grabs, they have been an important team to get right over these past few slates. One of the top Magic targets in recent slates has been Bulls castoff Wendell Carter, who received elevated minutes and opportunity at the center position with the absence of Mohamed Bamba. He went off for an average of 41.1 DraftKings points per game in his last two outings.

But with Bamba now back, it’s hard to imagine a world where Carter will be prioritized with any sort of volume at the center position tonight. In fact, despite multiple absences yet again for the Magic tonight, it’s hard to imagine getting to too much of either. That is an actual bummer since they average the most DraftKings points per minute on the team over the past month (Bamba 1.32, Carter 1.12). But the reality is they simply cannibalize too many minutes from one another to make either a priority play, especially with the presumed ownership they’ll still garner. Check Awesemo’s ownership projections and Boom/Bust tool early and often tomorrow to double-check such assumptions, but both feel like uncomfortable rosters on tonight’s slate.

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Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

The Derrick Rose career renaissance is in full bloom. The Knicks are in the midst of a six-game winning streak, and Rose stands out as a particular strong value piece for the DraftKings slate at only $5,100. Seeing 35 minutes last time out was a sizable jump from recent games, and while overtime surely inflated that court time, it’s nice to know he could be capable of that sort of run once more.
The Enes Kanter versus Hassan Whiteside decision ought to be a super important one on FanDuel tomorrow. Depending how ownership pans out, plug in the more popular play for cash and the less popular one with slightly more tournament exposure.
Just play Brandon Ingram.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.