The NBA Slate Starter: NBA DFS Strategy for DraftKings + FanDuel | Thursday, 5/13

Good thing we covered the Lakers – Rockets game so in-depth on yesterday’s Slate Starter article, as it was unquestionably the game of the night for fantasy goodness with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Christian Wood all sitting. While there was definitely some fantastic cheap value in the early window as well, the late-night hammer saw both short-handed teams combined for some truly outrageous performances across the salary spectrum. Combined them with Russell Westbrook, and it was guaranteed money. But that’s already in the past, so it’s time to find some more solid NBA DFS picks and strategies for NBA DFS lineups and keep it rolling for Thursday’s nine-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Be sure to check out the Slate Starter podcast, featuring yours truly and Rynpak, to get the first look at the slate and make NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!

NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | May 13

The Major Bulls and Kings Question Marks

There is another large nine-gamer on tap for Thursday, and the playoff picture is becoming much clearer as the days go by. In order to determine the motives for every team involved in tomorrow’s slate, let’s take a peek at the current standings:

At first glance, the Bulls and Kings are the only outsiders that are “mathematically” live to sneak into the play-in tournament. But if you’re wondering why “mathematically” was put in quotes, it’s because both teams have less than a 0.5% chance to move up to the 10th seed. That means, for all intents and purposes, their respective seasons are over.

With that in mind, here’s the debacle gamers face: Do they play their games today as if they’re still live, or are do they start to pack it in and baby their regular starters? And if there is not word from the head coaches as to their plans (likely), or if there isn’t a bunch of news that involves the word “rest” that would basically spell out their intentions for them, do we play their starters with confidence that they’ll get their full allotment of minutes? This is a question we’ll be asking a lot the next three days, especially because motives will be so clear cut for that final 15-game slate of the season on Sunday.

For my money, the Kings and Bulls will almost certainly play their games straight up. The Wizards and Spurs, the current teams in possession of the 10 seeds in their respective conferences, both played and lost on Wednesday night. The Wizards are out of action, so that means the Bulls should have no issue rolling out Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic for their regular allotment of 36 minutes against a crippled Raptors team. And the Spurs get a tough road matchup on the second half of a back-to-back against the Knicks tonight, so they’re very live to lose and technically keep hope alive for the Kings.

That is all music to the ears DFSers, as the Kings draw an incredible game environment against a Grizzlies team that needs a win badly themselves. They are currently the No. 9 seed and pushing desperately to sneak out the No. 8 seed since that gives them two cracks at reaching the playoffs instead of needing to win two in a row. So while there is no total out as of writing this, expect it to sit north of 235 considering both teams are top 10 in pace and the Kings are dead last in defensive efficiency, making it one of the top games on the board to target players from.

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Buyer Beware With Some of the Raptors Value

Now that we’ve addressed the two fringe teams, let’s discuss a truly terrible team with nothing to play for on Thursday in the Raptors. This is the first time in the past eight seasons they won’t be involved in postseason play, and it’s pretty apparent judging by the number of studs they are resting:

With basically their entire starting five inactive, the Raptors will project out as incredible better point per dollar options on this slate. It is hard not to agree with that, though, as they appear to be have only eight active players for tonight’s game versus the Bulls:

FanDuel is equally as enticing to fire up Raptors, as Khem Birch is the most expensive piece on the team over there too, at only $6,000. This gives us all the salary relief we need on this slate to comfortably jam in the studs up top, and that’s without factoring in the value any of the other 17 teams could provide at a moment’s notice. Be sure to check Awesemo’s projections early and often tomorrow, as knowing which Raptors are being prioritized by the best NBA DFS players in the industry is a huge edge to be had on this slate.

But just to play devil’s advocate for just a second: it’s hard to be thrilled with what we saw last game out of Nick Nurse’s rotations (courtesy of PopcornMachine.net):

Given, Chris Boucher played an absurd 37 minutes despite not having played in the past three weeks, and now that court time must be filled by the likes of Freddie Gillespie and Yuta Watanabe. But considering how spread out the minutes were — and how condensed the usage should be to Gary Trent, Malachi Flynn and Khem Birch, some of these ancillary pieces might not have the ceilings we’re looking for compared to what their ownership will be. So while this team is unquestionably short-handed enough to make every active player worthy of a roster spot, finding paths to get off low-usage chalk where the minutes are being spread around equally might be a slate-winning move.

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• NBA DFS Strategy: How to Build Winning GPP Lineups | DraftKings + FanDuel
• NBA DFS Strategy Guide for Daily Fantasy Sports From Alex Baker, the World’s No. 1 Player
• Stokastic DFS on Youtube

Final Thoughts for NBA DFS Lineups

• Joel Embiid sat out on Tuesday’s slate with a non-COVID illness, and he’s very live to do so again tonight. Considering they draw the miserable Magic for their final two games of the season, we should be on high alert for the Sixers to coast their way into the weekend and take care of business then to secure the No. 1 seed.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo and Domantas Sabonis make paying down at power forward on this slate really difficult to want to do. In a matchup sporting a 237 total and a game featuring major playoff implications, there could be fireworks in this one.
• Just play Nikola Jokic.

[NBAPAGE]