Tuesday was a tough slate that proved to be impossible if you didn’t have Jayson Tatum‘s nuclear performance in your lineup. With the number of pay-up options yesterday and yet no clear-cut value, it was a real bummer for none of the super cheapies to come through. And a special shoutout to James Borrego, who started Bismack Biyombo with the sole intention of playing him just three minutes before getting the team’s collective doors blown off. He must have missed the note it was a must-win game and he didn’t have to start players he doesn’t actually want to play. At least it’s a new day on DraftKings and FanDuel, so let’s find ourselves some actual good NBA DFS picks and strategies that can help us make up for Tuesday.
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NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | May 19
There’s Stephen Curry, Then There’s Everyone Else
Wednesday’s two-game slate starts at 7:30 p.m. ET with Spurs – Grizzlies, but everyone knows the main attraction doesn’t go off until 10 p.m. ET when the Warriors take on the Lakers at the Staples Center. There is no doubt commissioner Adam Silver and a bunch of his fellow executives are patting themselves on the back right now, as this game was a near-perfect outcome for the first year of their play-in tournament trial run. With two of the most relevant teams of the 2000s squaring off with three of the most prolific superstars taking the court, there is no doubt this will be appointment viewing for us all.
And from an NBA DFS perspective, there is also no doubt that Stephen Curry will be far and away the highest-owned spend-up on the slate. While there’s uncertainty as to the health of LeBron James and Anthony Davis — not to mention how Andre Drummond sharing rebounds alongside them could cap their upsides — Curry carries no such question marks. He has the greenest of green lights in the Association, as evidenced by his 12.7 3-point attempts per game en route to the 2020-21 scoring title. He has far more minutes certainty than the Lakers studs. And since Kelly Oubre’s injury on April 27, Curry sports a 38.1% usage rate alongside 1.60 DraftKings points per minute.
In other words, it’s impossible to imagine not getting tons of Curry on tonight’s slate. Keep in mind the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, as there is no doubt the ownership will be there and gamers must be sensitive to his leverage score compared to both James and Davis. But on raw points alone, he’s going to look better than either Lakers stud, and that’s before factoring in his cheaper price tag than Davis on both sites and the possibility he could play six to eight more minutes than James should this game stay competitive.
Be sure to check in with our NBA experts and get the best NBA DFS advice today from our Awesemo Strategy Show.
Build Some Tournament Lineups With Extreme Game Scripts In Mind
Tuesday was quite a rude awakening to postseason basketball for many. And while it would be easy to blame bad luck and a porous Hornets defense for a lot the tournament troubles, there’s one major mistake that was made in hindsight: Not enough emphasis on potential game script. While the Caris LeVert absence certainly led to decent outings by the duo of Doug McDermott and Justin Holiday, neither made their way into the optimal lineup on DraftKings or FanDuel. Same can be said for the high-owned Celtics tandem of Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier, whose performances (and more importantly, usage) were rendered meaningless by Tatum’s outrageous outing.
Instead, it was super-low owned plays Malik Monk and Goga Bitadze that were part of the optimal lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel. And while both seem like outlandish plays in a vacuum, the two paired together actually makes quite a bit of sense, as both would be major beneficiaries if the game resulted in a 30-point plus blowout like it did. And if you predicted a lower-scoring Celtics – Wizards game than expected, landing on Ish Smith as the only salary saver from that game made a ton of sense, too.
So how can we apply some of the lessons from Tuesday to our lineups going forward? It’s simple: On these shorter NBA DFS postseason slates — and especially on Showdown slates — build some tournament lineups with extreme game scripts in mind. Which Spurs would benefit most from a massive blowout? Or how about, who can really put up fantasy points should the Warriors and Lakers shoot out and blow out in similar fashion to the Hornets – Pacers game, where 261 total points were scored? These are the sorts of ways we can land on low-owned pieces organically without being stupid, as sub-10% owned pieces tend to bust at an alarming rate on two-game slates. And as we learned last night, you only need to nail the right crazy game scripts once in order to win some life-changing money.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA Lineups
- At first glance, the Spurs stick out as severely-underpriced on DraftKings tomorrow. Get ready for some serious Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poetl discussion especially.
- FanDuel has no such team that jumps out, and in fact looks to have pretty efficient pricing. That should make tournaments extremely fun over there, as there should be plenty of different viable ways to build your lineups.
- Just play Jonas Valanciunas.
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