NBA DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy 5/21

Wednesday was a successful one for the Awesemo crew, as a number of avatars littered the leaderboards in the biggest tournaments across the industry. Daniel Gafford was the Captain you needed for the bink, paired along with all three studs that put up poor fantasy performances by their standards, but still the top numbers in the game. Looking over the results, there was a path to a solo win had anyone plugged Cassius Stanley in the flex, but sometimes it’s impossible to land on the absolute optimal lineup in these single-game contests. Still, that is without a doubt the goal for Friday, so let’s try and find the right picks and DFS NBA strategy that could do just that on DraftKings and FanDuel.

[NBA-PLAY-IN]

NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | May 21

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The Stephen Curry Conundrum

There is one final play-in Tournament game tonight between the Grizzlies and the Warriors, with the winner securing the No. 8 seed and a series date with the top-seeded Jazz. Coming off a hard-fought loss, it will be fascinating to see how the Warriors responds a lesser foe in the Grizzlies. And as for Memphis, we’ll see if Jonas Valanciunas can go full-beast mode for a second-consecutive outing, which will most likely be required to pull off the upset.

But let’s be serious, the main attraction this evening is Stephen Curry, who put up 37 real points and 50.25 DraftKings points on the wings of 12-for-23 shooting (6-for-9 from 3). While there are no projections available yet the night before, Curry is no doubt going to be the highest-projected player on the slate by a considerable margin. What is fascinating, however, is the gap between him and Valanciunas isn’t as wide as it should be on either DraftKings or FanDuel:

nba dfs daily fantasy basketball draftkings fanduel expert projections predictions nba playoff western conference play-in tournament Stephen Curry

The gap of $1,400 wouldn’t be substantial on a multi-game slate, so it’s certainly not enough on a one-game Showdown slate. And the mere $500 disparity on FanDuel is atrocious considering Curry has averaged 1.5 DraftKings points per minute over the course of the season, 1.6 over the past month with Kelly Oubre out and could be in line for legitimately 44 minutes in this do-or-die game. It is not that Valanciunas is a poor fantasy player whatsoever, as he is tops on the Grizzlies at 1.33 DraftKings points per minute on the season. Plus, he is seeing some increased run that has only bolstered his fantasy production, putting up six consecutive games of at least 46.5 DraftKings points. But this is Curry we’re talking about here, which means this minor disparity in pricing is going to lead to an insane amount of ownership going his way.

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So the real question is, are there any realistic paths off Curry in builds on DraftKings and FanDuel? He is certainly not cost-prohibitive, so whether Captaining him (which is substantially easier to do at that spot than Russell Westbrook was on Thursday) or flexing him on DraftKings, it’s going to be a cinch to do. He is also far from foul prone, averaging the fewest number of fouls per 36 this season (1.9) than he has any other year of his career. And it’s needless to talk about his shooting because everyone is aware he’s one of the best to ever do it.

That is why it seems apparent that, although Curry will be the highest-owned player on this slate by a considerable margin, it’s impossible not to be even more bullish than the public at these obviously mispriced salaries. Plus, it’s so hard to get away from raw points on any single-game contest, let alone the NBA, where studs have a level of consistency other high-variance sports do not. Consult the Boom/Bust tool tomorrow (which had Gafford as its highest-leveraged player in yesterday’s game, by the way), and if you can, try to make educated pivots based on ownership and leverage. But no matter what, it is very difficult to imagine a world where Curry isn’t in every lineup.

Close Games Help Predict Other Close Games

While every game in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament was extremely uncompetitive, the Western Conference had its first two matchups deciding by 4 points or less. That means that should Grizzlies – Warriors stay close, there is some quality information regarding each team’s postseason rotations. Let’s take a look at who touched the court and for how long with the help of PopcornMachine.net:

nba dfs daily fantasy basketball draftkings fanduel expert projections predictions nba playoff western conference play-in tournament Stephen Curry

What sticks out most of all is that the eight-man rotation for the Warriors saw everyone play 20 minutes or more, while the Grizzlies’ 10-man rotation was really only six, considering the extremely short stints of De’Anthony Melton, Xavier Tillman, Tyus Jones and Grayson Allen. That instinctually makes me want to over-invest on any of the 14 main rotational players in this game that end up under-represented in Awesemo’s ownership projections. Barring something truly unforeseen, this do-or-die scenario will most likely have both coaches running out the exact same rotations tonight. So build with any of the super cheap Grizzlies at your own risk or with potential blowouts in mind, but they’ll most likely be passes on this end.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

Just play Draymond Green. A lot.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.