SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks: Friday's Best Value Plays & Fades

Tonight offers us an interesting nine-game NBA slate at SuperDraft, and if you’re seeking out some lineup advice, I’m here to break down the action and SuperDraft NBA fantasy picks for you.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Danuel House will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Feb. 12

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top-five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

Damian Lillard (1.2x)

Lillard has the slate’s highest projection tonight, and he should anchor your lineups from his guard position. He comes with a rock-solid multiplier, and as we’ve seen with the Blazers since Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum went down, this team revolves around Lillard. He should have another great night even if the relatively low projected total (222.5) holds water.

Nikola Vucevic (1.3x)

Our projections love Vucevic here. He’ll take on the Kings tonight in a game with a respectable total (223.5), but it’s the litany of injuries to the Magic that give him the most value. Orlando will need to lean on Vucevic until they can get healthy.

Kawhi Leonard (1.25x)

I absolutely love Leonard tonight. This game has the slate’s third-highest total (229.5), and Leonard has had to step up in Paul George‘s absence. Leonard has gone for a double-double in two of his last three (all games without George), and the one time he missed out on double-digit rebounds, he still posted 36 points.

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LeBron James (1.1x)

This isn’t the greatest matchup to target, as the Lakers may not need to score a ton of points to beat the Grizzlies. The game’s total (219.5) isn’t particularly high either. But even at 36 years old, James possesses slate-winning upside, and our projections expect him to get the ninth-most points tonight.

Luka Doncic (1x)

The Pelicans allowed two players (Zach LaVine and Coby White) to hit a combined 17 3-pointers against them on Wednesday. I expect the Mavericks to attempt numerous shots from 3-point land, and Doncic could be a prime beneficiary of the Pelicans’ weak perimeter defense.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top-five low-value players for tonight’s slate. Only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify.

Hamidou Diallo (1.7x)

Diallo has been a staple of this column over the past week, and with the Thunder still struggling with injuries, it looks like he’s here to stay. The Thunder have already ruled George Hill, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Theo Maledon out for this one, which leaves Diallo in a high-volume role against the Nuggets.

Enes Kanter (1.65x)

Our projections also love Kanter, whose multiplier hasn’t fully compensated for his role following Nurkic’s injury. Despite the unappealing total, our model projects Kanter as the fourth-best player on tonight’s SuperDraft slate.

Cole Anthony (1.8x)

Anthony missed last night’s game against the Pacers after he injured his shoulder on Tuesday. If he can play tonight, he should get extra minutes due to Orlando’s laundry list of injuries, and that puts him in a fantastic spot at this multiplier.

Darius Bazley (1.7x)

With Oklahoma City’s roster so banged up, just about all of their available players will have value at their set multipliers. Bazley is no exception, and he has played 40-plus minutes in his last two games.

Jordan Clarkson (1.65x)

I haven’t featured any players from what the betting totals point to as tonight’s highest-scoring game. With the Jazz – Bucks total (234.5) so high, you should find a player or two from that game to target. Our projections like Clarkson, whose high multiplier should offset the fact he must play off the bench.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fades

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Cedi Osman (1.75x)

Osman ranks as the worst player with a multiplier at 1.75x or above. His multiplier fails to compensate for the fact that he is averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game over his last three.

Bobby Portis (1.7x)

Despite the high posted total, Portis ranks as the worst player at 1.7x or above. Though he has certainly flashed upside this year, tonight’s matchup with the Jazz and Rudy Gobert scares me off him.

Eric Bledsoe (1.65x)

Bledsoe’s multiplier isn’t enough to compensate for his role in New Orleans’ rotation at guard. He played just 17 minutes on Wednesday and just 23 the night before.

Keldon Johnson (1.55x)

Johnson ranks as the worst player with a multiplier set at 1.55x or above, and even though the betting lines point to a reasonably high total (225.5), I would err on the side of our projections and avoid him here.

Dejounte Murray (1.35x)

Our model is also out on Murray. His multiplier seems too low, honestly; Donovan Mitchell (1.4x) has a higher one. You can find better value elsewhere on tonight’s slate.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.