With a seven-game slate on tap for tonight at SuperDraft, we have plenty of matchups to parse through to find value. Almost every game has a projected point total above 220 — except the Jazz and Heat — while the Hornets and Warriors are projected for the most points. Here’s a breakdown of values and fades to help you find the best NBA SuperDraft lineup picks possible for this slate.
If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Jae Crowder will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.
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Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays
Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.
Damian Lillard (1.1x)
Our projections love Lillard tonight despite the tough matchup. Well, perhaps it won’t be that tough of a matchup after all — the Lakers may rank first in defensive efficiency on the year, but they’re a mid-pack team over the last three games. Although the point total (223.5) is a bit low for the slate, it’s still far enough above 220 to justify targeting.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (1.2x)
The Thunder will play the Hawks in the game that’s tied for the second-highest projected point total (226.5). Atlanta’s porous defense should allow Gilgeous-Alexander and company to capitalize with a boatload of points, and our projections are all over him at this multiplier.
De’Aaron Fox (1.25x)
The Kings have struggled defensively of late, and their game against the Pistons has one of the slate’s higher totals (225.5). Fox will need to score a bunch to make sure the Kings stay in this one.
Zach LaVine (1.25x)
The Bulls and Suns are projected for a decent total (225.5), and LaVine’s multiplier is high enough to compensate for Phoenix’s defense and slow pace of play.
LaMelo Ball (1.25x)
The Hornets and Warriors are projected for the slate’s highest total (234), and Ball has a solid multiplier for the matchup, especially compared to Curry (1x).
NOTE: If you need a forward, Jerami Grant (1.4x) doesn’t qualify as a low-multiplier play, but he ranks highest in our NBA SuperDraft lineup projections for tonight’s slate.
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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays
I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top five low-value players for tonight’s slate. Usually only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify, but I’ve changed that to 1.6x due to the lack of compelling options with higher multipliers.
Mason Plumlee (1.6x)
Our projections love the Pistons tonight. They may not have a single player with a low multiplier, but two of their starters qualify as high-multiplier plays. Plumlee has seen his role expand since Detroit decided to move on from Blake Griffin, and he is averaging 12.7 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists over his last six appearances. Expect another double-double from him against Sacramento’s exploitable defense.
Marvin Bagley (1.6x)
Sacramento’s vulnerabilities cut both ways. On the one hand, Detroit’s players are smart targets; on the other, Sacramento’s players are too because they’ll have to compensate. Our projections love Bagley here, and he sits between superstars Kawhi Leonard and Trae Young in our projections.
Darius Bazley (1.6x)
If Gilgeous-Alexander is a good target, Bazley could be too. He failed to score a point against the Spurs on Wednesday, but he did record 10 rebounds. Atlanta’s defense ranks far below San Antonio’s in defense efficiency, so Bazley shouldn’t get shut out again.
Saddiq Bey (1.8x)
Like Plumlee, Bey has seen more minutes following Detroit’s decision on Griffin. He has averaged 12.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game over his last six appearances. At a multiplier this high, that screams value.
Robert Covington (1.7x)
Los Angeles’ defensive regression improves the value of Portland’s high-multiplier players. Both Covington and Gary Trent Jr. (1.6x) should be reliable contributors on SuperDraft this evening.
Five SuperDraft NBA Fade Picks
Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.
Nemanja Bjelica (1.85x)
With the Kings getting Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes back from injury, they haven’t needed to use Bjelica. He hasn’t played in three games. He ranks the lowest of all uninjured players with a multiplier set at 1.85 or above.
Justise Winslow (1.55x)
Memphis just pulled off a thrilling upset win over the Clippers, but Winslow played only 22 minutes and recorded 9 points and 6 rebounds. That’s not terrible, but that production won’t cut it at a multiplier this low.
Kendrick Nunn (1.6x)
The Heat won’t need to lean on Nunn as much with Goran Dragic working his way back into the lineup. Nunn recorded just 7 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds in his last game for Miami. That isn’t enough to justify rostering Nunn at this multiplier.
Donovan Mitchell (1.3x)
Mitchell is the lowest-ranked uninjured guard with a multiplier at 1.35x or above. You should pivot to one of the higher-value options highlighted in the first section instead of featuring him tonight, especially since his game’s posted total (217.5) is the slate’s lowest.
Mike Conley (1.55x)
Conley may have a higher multiplier than Mitchell, but he ranks lower in our SuperDraft projections. Again, there are better games and guards to target on this slate, so don’t force someone from the matchup between the Jazz and Heat into your lineup.
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