NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Today's Expert DFS Plays

With a seven-game slate on tap for tonight at SuperDraft, it feels good to be back in the saddle after the All-Star Break. If you’re looking for some tips on how to make the best NBA SuperDraft lineup picks this evening, our projections point to some clear studs and duds.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Jae Crowder will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Mar. 12

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

Joel Embiid (1.1x)

After getting the night off on the front end of Philadelphia’s back-to-back, Embiid should be well prepared to take on the Wizards tonight. The game has the slate’s highest projected total (234.5) too. That makes sense, as both teams have been playing at top-five paces over their last three outings. Embiid should score a boatload of points tonight, especially at this multiplier.

Nikola Vucevic (1.25x)

The Magic are also on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, but Vucevic’s multiplier has been set high enough to compensate. It helps that the Magic are riddled with injuries right now, so Orlando will have to entrust Vucevic with even more of the offensive workload than usual.

Russell Westbrook (1.2x) and Bradley Beal (1.25x)

Our projections love the Wizards’ star players on this slate. And given how fast-paced tonight’s game should be, that shouldn’t be surprising. These teams combined for 277 points when they last met in January, and the duo accounted for 58.8% of Washington’s total score. With their multipliers in the 1.2x range, both Westbrook and Beal make fantastic assets for your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Jimmy Butler (1.2x)

The Heat took down the Magic last night, and Miami is now 8-2 over their last 10 outings. Butler has been a key contributor to this hot streak, especially since the Heat haven’t had Bam Adebayo for their last two. With Adebayo still out, Butler is a fantastic play at a multiplier this high.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top five low-value players for tonight’s slate. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or above 1.65x.

Michael Carter-Williams (1.8x)

The Magic are severely depleted right now. Cole Anthony, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross all missed yesterday’s matchup, thrusting Carter-Williams into a 30-minute role, in which he posted 17 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists. Look for him to put up similar numbers tonight if Orlando remains without several key guards.

Jakob Poeltl (1.65x)

With LaMarcus Aldridge on his way out, it’s Poeltl’s time in San Antonio. Poeltl didn’t do much in his first start following the All-Star Break — he recorded just 6 points and 5 rebounds — but he did play 32 minutes, the third most on the roster. He should be in line for more production against a depleted Orlando squad.

Keldon Johnson (1.7x)

I have mixed feelings about Johnson. On the one hand, he was on a clear minutes limit the last time San Antonio took the court, as he only played 22. On the other hand, he could easily see more usage tonight, and this multiplier could make him a slate-winning asset. Johnson has now played three games since recovering from COVID-19, and it could be worth it to take a shot on him in case he returns to his normal higher-usage role tonight.

Shake Milton (1.8x)

The 76ers should get Embiid back tonight, but Ben Simmons will remain out until at least Saturday. That will leave them short-handed at guard, which is good news for Milton. He didn’t do a ton of damage without Simmons last night, as he recorded just 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists. However, he could easily bounce back tonight — especially if the Wizards can do a better job of keeping up with the 76ers than the Bulls did.

Dennis Schroder (1.7x)

Schroder has looked great over Los Angeles’ last four games, as he has averaged 19.8 points, 2.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists through that span. I expect him to have a decent enough night against the Pacers to easily hit value against this multiplier.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fade Picks

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Tyrese Maxey (1.75x)

Maxey has a lower multiplier than Milton, yet he played only 5 minutes last night. That’s almost 20 fewer than Milton. If you’re looking to capitalize on Simmons’ absence, you should avoid Maxey and play Milton instead.

Taurean Prince (1.75x)

Prince is the second-lowest-ranked player with a multiplier set at 1.75x or below, per our projections. The Cavaliers and Pelicans have one of the slate’s higher projected totals (229.5), but Prince’s multiplier isn’t set high enough to compensate for his meager 23.6 minutes per game.

Joe Ingles (1.65x)

Our projections also aren’t keen on Ingles, especially since he has played 30-plus minutes in just one of his last five outings. Ingles’ multiplier is set a touch too low for his rotational role, and I don’t expect Utah to leave him on the court for very long in what should be a blowout.

Montrezl Harrell (1.6x)

Harrell has a tough matchup against Myles Turner tonight, and his multiplier just hasn’t been set high enough to compensate. I’m also unsure what the Lakers are doing with him right now, as he failed to play 20 minutes in his two most recent games with LeBron James on the court.

Kelly Olynyk (1.4x)

Olynyk looked fantastic last night, but the Heat usually don’t leave him on the court for 35-plus minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat scale back his usage on the wrong end of a back-to-back, and that would be bad news at a multiplier this low.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.