NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Today's Expert DFS Plays

There is an exciting six-game slate on tap tonight at SuperDraft. While the world of sports media turns its attention to the March Madness tournament later this week, there still is exciting professional action going on, including a marquee matchup between the Lakers and the Warriors. If you’re looking for some tips on how to build a winning NBA SuperDraft lineup, here are some studs to pick and duds to avoid for the evening’s slate.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Jae Crowder will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Mar. 15

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

LeBron James (1.05x)

Tonight’s slate has some odd totals. The evening’s two highest-scoring games will not tip off before the featured games at SuperDraft, which leaves us with five matchups with totals in the 220s. That means we’ll focus on the projections here, and James ranks third best. The Warriors don’t field a strong defense, and they’ll have to play on the tail end of a back-to-back, which will only exacerbate their weaknesses.

Nikola Jokic (1x)

Jokic doesn’t have a multiplier, but he is the heart and soul of Denver’s offense, so he really doesn’t need one. The Pacers give up a surprisingly high number of points to centers despite having Myles Turner, and you should feel comfortable about featuring Jokic at center.

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Domantas Sabonis (1.25x)

Sabonis has a pretty high multiplier for his matchup with the Nuggets. He slots in right behind Jokic in our projections too. Denver ranks around the league average against opposing power forwards, but Sabonis should easily hit value because of his multiplier.

Kyrie Irving (1.25x)

I don’t love the Nets’ matchup against the Knicks tonight, and that’s why I’ve left off a multiplier-less James Harden. However, I do like Irving with such a high multiplier because of his ceiling. Irving dropped 40 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists on the Celtics just two nights ago, and that’s slate-winning upside with this kind of multiplier.

Stephen Curry (1.15x)

The Warriors will have a tough test versus the Lakers this evening, and Curry struggled in Golden State’s most recent matchup with Los Angeles. However, we can blame those struggles on the fact that the Lakers ran away with things early, leaving Curry to play only 26 minutes. I expect the Warriors to keep this one a bit closer, as do the sportsbooks, who favor Los Angeles by just a 2.5-point margin.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top five low-value players for tonight’s slate. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or above 1.65x.

Jakob Poeltl (1.65x)

The Spurs have looked awful recently. They just got blown out by the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, and Poeltl only attempted 3 shots and recorded 5 rebounds in the loss. That said, they are favored over the Pistons tonight, and our projections rank Poeltl first on the slate.

Immanuel Quickley (1.7x)

The Nets are sixth worst in defensive efficiency, and with Derrick Rose and Elfrid Payton likely still sidelined, that leaves a huge opportunity for Quickley to produce. He ranks fifth in our projections tonight. Look for the rookie to accumulate 30-plus minutes as the Knicks try to exploit a bad defense.

Mason Plumlee (1.65x)

Both centers in the battle between the Spurs and Pistons make this list. Plumlee has had to pick up the slack since Detroit decided to move on from Blake Griffin, and he has averaged almost a double-double per game since Griffin’s departure.

R.J. Barrett (1.65x)

Barrett has seen his usage fluctuate this season, but he usually sees 32-plus minutes in close games — at least when Tom Thibodeau isn’t resting his starters. Barrett went for 20 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists the last time he faced the Nets.

Dennis Schroder (1.65x)

I’m targeting the Lakers against Golden State this evening, and Schroder is no exception. The Warriors may struggle defensively on the tail end of a back-to-back, especially since three of their starters — Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins — all played 35-plus minutes.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fade Picks

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Lou Williams (1.65x)

Patrick Beverley remains out, but the Clippers showed us last night that they don’t intend to replace him with Williams. He played just 14 minutes, and that usage doesn’t justify a multiplier this low.

Justise Winslow (1.65x)

Winslow has looked good off the bench for Memphis, but he’s locked into a sub-25-minute role. That seriously limits his upside, especially at a multiplier this low. It doesn’t help that the Grizzlies will take on the Suns, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency.

Kyle Anderson (1.55x)

Again, I’m fading the Grizzlies against Phoenix’s defense. They just suffered a tough loss to the Thunder yesterday afternoon, and it’ll be hard for them to bounce back against an opponent as good as the Suns.

DeAndre Jordan (1.7x)

Jordan is an easy player to fade on most slates, but he is an even easier fade tonight. The Knicks play at the NBA’s slowest pace, and that may limit Jordan’s opportunities to fill the stat sheet. He hasn’t played more than 30 minutes since before the All-Star Break either, so you would be much better off with a higher-usage center like Poeltl or Plumlee tonight — especially because they have comparable multipliers.

Serge Ibaka (1.65x)

Ibaka got hurt last night, and I doubt that he will receive a full workload tonight. Don’t be surprised if the Clippers opt to rest him entirely. If they do, Ivica Zubac (2x) could be a decent value play at a multiplier that high.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.