NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Saturday's Values & Fades

After some exciting matchups yesterday slate, including a surprise win over the Jazz for the Clippers, we’ve got an interesting five-game slate on tap for tonight. If you’re looking to get in on the action, here are some studs and duds to consider as you build your SuperDraft NBA lineup.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Danuel House will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Feb. 19

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top-5 high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

LeBron James (1.05x)

James may have to play in what’s projected to be the night’s lowest-scoring game (209.5), but our projections love him anyway. The loss of Anthony Davis has forced Los Angeles to lean heavily on James, and he should top the slate in scoring despite his low multiplier.

Russell Westbrook (1.2x)

The battle between the Wizards and Trail Blazers should be the night’s highest-scoring battle (241), per OddsShopper. As such, you should feel confident about targeting studs on either side, especially Westbrook. His high multiplier puts him on track for the second-most points on this slate.

Damian Lillard (1.05x)

Lillard’s multiplier has fallen in recent slates, unfortunately, but he’s still a decent value against the Wizards’ terrible defense. Washington ranks fifth-worst in defensive efficiency.

Zach LaVine (1.2x)

LaVine and the Bulls almost beat the Sixers last night! They’ll face the Sacramento Kings tonight, and our projections expect another big game out of LaVine — especially if the injury that limited Coby White last night reduces his minutes in this one.

LaMelo Ball (1.2x)

Ball had a 1.6x multiplier a few weeks ago — those were the days! The Charlotte Hornets (and SuperDraft) have since adjusted, but Ball should still have big game with this multiplier in mind — he’ll play in the slate’s second highest-scoring matchup (234), per OddsShopper.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top-5 low-value players for tonight’s slate. Only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify.

Robert Covington (1.65x)

Again, you can target just about anyone in this game between the Wizards and Blazers. Our projections expect an especially strong performance out of Covington. With a multiplier set this high, it’s hard to turn down a guy who has played 35-plus minutes in his last five outings.

Rui Hachimura (1.7x)

Hachimura has a rock-solid multiplier on tonight’s slate. Should the Wizards and Blazers deliver on the game’s high-scoring potential, you can expect Hachimura to do a good chunk of the damage, as he is averaging 14.3 points and 6.5 rebounds over his last six appearances. That’s a good sign that he’d be a valuable contributor to your SuperDraft NBA lineup.

Cody Zeller (1.65x)

Our second target from Charlotte’s game against the Warriors (who are on a back-to-back), Zeller makes a fantastic target here. Why? The Warriors are still without bigs James Wiseman and Kevon Looney, so Zeller should be able to dominate in the paint.

Kyle Kuzma (1.7x)

Kuzma has turned things around following the injury to Anthony Davis, but his multiplier hasn’t really adjusted for that fact. He might be stuck in a low-scoring matchup, but that doesn’t mean you have to avoid him when his multiplier is this high.

Carmelo Anthony (1.65x)

I’ll wrap up this section with one more player from the Wizards and Blazers matchup: Melo himself. He didn’t see a ton of run in Portland’s back-to-back earlier in the week, which I suspect is just load management for the 36-year-old veteran. He toasted the Wizards for 21 points and four rebounds earlier this month.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fades

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Dario Saric (1.75x)

Our projections have Saric as the lowest active player with a multiplier at or above 1.75x. He only played 10 minutes last night, as the Suns opted to emphasize Mikal Bridges and Frank Kaminsky, Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder at forward instead. Saric hasn’t played more than 20 minutes since early January.

Tyus Jones (1.7x)

Jones has averaged 18.4 minutes per game of Memphis’ last three matchups, and that’s not enough usage to justify rostering someone with a multiplier this low.

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Brandon Clarke (1.6x)

Clarke hasn’t been a terrible asset recently, but it’s worth noting that the Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, and they’ll play the slow-paced Suns. The sportsbooks have this as the slate’s second lowest-scoring game (225.5), too.

Hassan Whiteside (1.6x)

Whiteside’s multiplier has trended up with the injuries to Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes, but they’re both questionable tonight, and Whiteside hasn’t produced at the level necessary to hit value at this multiplier.

Kelly Olynyk (1.75x)

Olynyk throttled the Kings on Thursday night, but he only played 24 minutes. Olynyk hasn’t seen more than 25 minutes of playing time in his last four games, and you should avoid him in a tough matchup against the Lakers this evening.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.