NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Today's Expert DFS Plays

Tonight’s slate at SuperDraft excludes some of the evening’s highest-scoring games. Neither Washington’s matchup with Sacramento nor Philadelphia’s game against Milwaukee fit onto it, so we’ll have to look elsewhere to find value. Here are some players to consider when constructing your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Jae Crowder will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Mar. 17

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

Nikola Jokic (1x)

Jokic may not have a multiplier tonight, but he will play in the game with the slate’s second-highest total (229) and should dominate on the glass. Charlotte hasn’t been great against opposing centers this season, and they allow the third-most rebounds per game to the position. Jokic should feast off the glass on his way to a high-scoring performance tonight.

Zach LaVine (1.25x)

LaVine dropped a whopping 40 points against the Thunder last night, and he’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against the Spurs. The game’s posted total is relatively high (223.5), and though the Spurs play strong defense, that doesn’t explain why LaVine’s multiplier has been set so high. He is a fantastic option for the evening’s slate.

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Stephen Curry (1.1x)

Curry has a decent multiplier and will play in what’s supposed to be the slate’s highest-scoring game. The Warriors and Rockets are projected to combine for 230.5 points, and Curry should be responsible for most of Golden State’s offensive production. He has scored 27-plus real points in his last two outings.

LaMelo Ball (1.35x)

I love Ball at this multiplier. As I mentioned above, the game is projected for the slate’s second-most points, and the Nuggets field a mid-pack defense against point guards. Ball has cooled off a bit since the All-Star Break, as he had put together a streak of six games with 19-plus points before then, but I expect him to rebound in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Jayson Tatum (1.2x)

I don’t love the Celtics tonight, but Tatum’s multiplier has been set high enough to warrant consideration. He has scored 27-plus points in three of his last four outings, and he makes a decent option at forward despite the game’s low projected total.

NOTE: Dejounte Murray (1.4x) and Kevin Porter Jr. (1.4x) barely missed the cut-off to qualify as low-multiplier plays, but they rank second and fourth overall in our projections, respectively.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top five low-value players for tonight’s slate. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or above 1.65x.

Sterling Brown (1.95x)

Brown ranks first in our projections for tonight’s slate because of his high-end multiplier. Not only will he play in what should be the slate’s highest-scoring game, but the Rockets are also unlikely to have Victor Oladipo and John Wall for the matchup, leaving Brown with plenty of work to do.

Jakob Poeltl (1.65x)

The Spurs will take on the Bulls tonight, and Chicago has struggled against opposing centers. They just allowed Moses Brown to double-double against them last night, and the 7-foot Poeltl should have a similar game this evening.

Robert Williams (1.75x)

With Tristan Thompson out again, Williams should see an expanded role. He nearly double-doubled without Thompson last night (he successfully did so the game before against Houston), and he offers a good chunk of value at a multiplier this high.

Lauri Markkanen (1.65x)

Markkanen erupted for 22 points and 5 rebounds against the Thunder last night. Fortunately, he doesn’t need to hit his ceiling again to have value at this multiplier, and that makes him worth considering for your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

James Wiseman (1.8x)

I absolutely love Wiseman tonight — if Christian Wood doesn’t play. Wood should be back soon for the Rockets, but until he returns, it’s safe to take whatever center is facing off against them. Wiseman should dominate at a multiplier this high should Wood remain out of the lineup.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fade Picks

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Malik Monk (1.75x)

The Hornets have gotten healthier, and Monk hasn’t played 20-plus minutes in his last three games. This multiplier doesn’t adequately compensate for his limited role, even in what should be a high-scoring matchup, as the Hornets don’t need to put him on the court anymore.

Devonte’ Graham (1.65x)

Since his return from injury, Graham has been coming off the bench for the Hornets. He has looked good, not great in that capacity; he has only gone over 20 minutes once, and that came in a high-scoring comeback win over the Kings. I would avoid Graham because, as with Monk, I don’t think his multiplier is high enough.

Justise Winslow (1.7x) and Ja Morant (1.4x)

The Grizzlies are a team to avoid tonight. The Heat boast a strong defense, and even though Memphis’ multipliers have been adjusted to account for that, I don’t believe that they’re worth the risk. Winslow is locked into a sub-25-minute role, and that has limited him to 10 points or fewer in his last five outings. Morant has had a streak of up-and-down performances that warrant caution as well.

Kelly Olynyk (1.4x)

I’m also avoiding Olynyk on this slate. Jonas Valanciunas makes for a tough matchup, and with Bam Adebayo back for Miami, it’s hard to trust the veteran center at a multiplier set this low.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.