The NBA Slate Starter: DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel

Today marks the start of elimination games only until the Finals, so let’s make the most of the few NBA slates we have left. This is your single-game contest Slate Starter for Game 5 between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat.

There Goes My Herro

Game 4 was bonkers. Jayson Tatum had zero first half points, Boston continued to look like they’ve never seen a zone defense before and Robert Williams inexplicably rejoined the rotation. Well, it was not inexplicably if you’re Awesemo’s own Greg Ehrenberg, who straight-up called the Williams play on Live Before Lock show (I’d tune in if I were you).

But above all, Game 4 was the Tyler Herro Show. The 20-year-old looked about as calm and collected as anyone I can remember in that spot (let alone a rookie), pouring in 37 points with relative ease. Nothing about his game looks forced, which is scary for the Celtics who have contained Jimmy Butler in this series yet face a 3-1 hole. If the Celtics are to have any chance eradicating this deficit, it starts with taking Herro out of the rhythm he’s fallen into.

From a DFS perspective, how do we handle Herro today, who will undoubtedly garner exponentially more ownership? I talk a lot in this column about regression and the need to jump off any chalk play coming off a monster game, if for nothing else than ownership purposes. But something feels different with Herro in this series, so despite my proclivity to fade chasing points, I plan on being over the field on him in Game 5 . He’s still only the seventh-most expensive play on DraftKings and sixth-most on FanDuel. And while his usage rate isn’t extreme at 22% for the four games thus far in this series, that number has surged to 23.5% in Game 3 and a whopping 28.8% in Game 4.

In other words, Herro has become increasingly more confident as this series has gone on. It is hard not to love the lock button on Herro today, with a smattering of shares in the Captain spot.

Any Value is Viable

Right after I basically said ‘these rotations are so predictable’ leading up to Wednesday’s Game 4, Brad Stevens and Erik Spoelstra decided to laugh in my face. Twelve minutes of Robert Williams was the stone-cold nuts you needed at sub-2% ownership, while Andre Iguodala was stretched out to 27 minutes.

So here’s the thing: I have no idea what’s happening with any of these bottom-end guys’ minutes. We can make some educated guesses together, and I know the DraftKings optimal will most-likely have a sub-$4,000 play in it, but godspeed identifying it. My lean is to take some shots on Kelly Olynyk, who didn’t even see the floor in Game 4. If you saw the end of that game, however, Bam Adebayo was holding his left arm/hand throughout. I’m not a doctor, and there isn’t anything on the injury report, but that was a lot of wincing from the big man to be nothing. So if Olynyk can get in for even 6-8 minutes, there’s potential for him to knock down a few 3’s and maybe grab a board or two. That would be enough on this slate.

On FanDuel, I’m having a hard time reaching down to the bottom for anyone under $8,000, but you might have to if you want Tatum and Adebayo in the same lineup. Iguodala is $6,500 and played a boatload of minutes Wednesday, so I prefer him to the identically priced Olynyk and Williams over there. Unless one of those three spikes a 20-fantasy-point outing, the optimal will probably only have one of Adebayo or Tatum (I lean Tatum) along with four plays from the mid-range. I’ll get all my exposure to the cheapies on DraftKings and let everyone else chase an outlier performance from them on FanDuel.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups

I need Kemba Walker rehab. That’s not a joke either; today will mark the umpteenth slate in a row I’m overweight on the “star” point guard, which basically destroys my chances at winning before the game even tips off. I’m begging the Heat to close out this series tonight just so I don’t have to play Walker anymore.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.