Last night was an exciting one in the Association, and it’s shaping up to be even better tonight. The Lakers will look to punch their ticket to the Finals for the first time in a decade, while the Nuggets aim to claw back from a third consecutive 3-1 deficit. It feels like manifest destiny for Laker nation to advance after the passing of Kobe Bryant earlier this year, but we’ll have to see. Without further ado, this is your Slate Starter for tonight’s NBA Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Who Prices This Stuff?
As if it wasn’t important enough to jam in one of the four studs in the Captain slot already (it’s been optimal every game of this series), DraftKings decided to make that job even easier by lowering all of their salaries. I’m not sure why or how, but here we are. Additionally, Dwight Howard will be the chalk du jour as his price went up a whole $600 despite a monster night on Thursday in the starting lineup. Think about it this way: Rajon Rondo is the first player listed after the big four at $8,000, and I have Howard projected for more raw points. In fact, Jerami Grant is the only player in this whole game apart from the studs I project for more fantasy goodness than Howard.
Now look, I actually prefer it when salaries for a DFS contest aren’t evenly distributed by projected points. That way lineups aren’t spoon-fed to our opponents and there’s typically more game theory involved. But today is taking that to the extreme, as Howard is legitimately $2,000 too cheap at least. Maybe I’m way off base here, but it’s hard to see a path I don’t have 100% of him in the utility spot tonight. Of course there’s ways he fails (foul trouble specifically), but after the 23 minutes we witnessed in Game 4 I don’t think it’s likely at his price.
Rocky Mountain Goodbye
I can’t get over that PJ Dozier played an entire fourth quarter in Game 2. Wanted to say that upfront. But Denver’s back in a familiar spot in these playoffs, with their third consecutive series facing a 3-1 deficit. While I’d be shocked if they came back in this one, I’m hoping to find a parting gift or two from players other than Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Jerami Grant is someone I hit the eject button on far too early, and I paid the price for it with Game 3’s ceiling performance. Game 4 wasn’t too shabby, posting 22 DraftKings points, although at $6,600 that’s not going to get it done. But his 40-plus minutes is a ridiculous amount to pass up on a one-game slate, so I’m going to take my chances and jump way over the field here. Hopefully more ancillary stats will be in store from him in Game 5.
The other play I want a whole lot of from Denver is fellow Iowa State alum Monte Morris. I’ve always been biased towards this guy, but now I’ve got good reason: 20 minutes in Game 3 and then a huge leap to 27 minutes in Game 4. He’s appeared in Showdown optimal lineups constantly in these playoffs, and at only $3,800 he’s a prime candidate to do it again tonight.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups
It’s really, really hard for me to get different on FanDuel today. I’ve said it repeatedly in this series, but anything that isn’t Stud/Stud/Murray in the MVP/All-Star/Pro slots will be different. Elevating Murray to the All-Star slot has paid dividends the past two games, but I think that build might gain more popularity than it’s worth today. Jerami Grant and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are my off-the-reservation Pro slot plays if you want to light some money on fire with me.
Lastly, keep building lineups for the narrative you believe in. If you think Denver hangs tough, imagine what that box score could look like at the end of the night and build appropriately. I truly think the Lakers big two go berserk to close this series out tonight (especially Anthony Davis) , so most of my lineups will focus on those two in the Captain spots; I’ll fill the rest of my rosters out with lesser-owned Nuggets value + Howard. Don’t be afraid to be different by leaving gobs of salary on the table, but don’t be stupid.
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