I refuse to say we’ve reached the end of the road. I won’t do it. Jimmy Butler still exists, so there’s a legitimate chance this won’t be the final NBA slate of the year. But in the event that it is, it’s been a pleasure to write for you throughout this basketball season that’s been unlike anything we’ve ever seen before (and hopefully never see again). With that said, let’s make today count: this is your NBA DFS Slate Starter for Game 5 of the Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat.
The NBA Slate Starter: DFS Picks for NBA Finals Game 5 | Oct. 9
Captain the King
The Los Angeles Lakers, the prohibitive title favorites entering the bubble, will be looking for a Game 5 closeout for the fourth consecutive series tonight. LeBron James has been sublime in those affairs, averaging 34.3 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists on better than 60% shooting from the floor. History further emphasizes his knack for closing out opponents on the ropes, as he carries a 79.2% win percentage in 48 career closeout games, the best mark of all time. In other words, good luck tonight, Miami.
A lot will be made of the historical nature of LeBron aiming for his fourth title, but that does literally zilch for our DFS purposes. What does matter is James’ previously stated closing abilities and their corresponding box scores. In fact, I think seeing just how ridiculous the fantasy point totals are from his previous Game 5’s this year emphasizes why James will be (and should be) the highest-owned Captain play on DraftKings tonight:
- Game 5 against Portland — 71.5 DraftKings points in fewer than 34 minutes
- Game 5 against Houston — 60.25 DraftKings points in fewer than 31 minutes
- Game 5 against Denver — 79.00 DraftKings points in exactly 40 minutes
I know he’s the most expensive play on the slate, and I know he’ll be popular. But I strongly believe not having LeBron in every single lineup means you’re paying the rake tonight. Furthermore, not having overweight exposure to him in the Captain spot on DraftKings and the MVP spot on FanDuel feels suboptimal. So, in the minutes leading up to lock, check Awesemo’s ownership page and get on top of whatever LeBron’s Captain ownership is. You’ll thank me later.
Mid-Range Roulette
In Games 2 and 3, the Kelly Olynyk value plus an underpriced Butler equaled immensely easy lineup building. But with Bam Adebayo returning to the Heat lineup and a Butler price hike on both sites today, jamming in studs isn’t as easy as it used to be.
That means we’re looking at some major work to differentiate between DFS picks in the mid-range. On DraftKings, our current projections have fewer than 7 fantasy points separating any play from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at $5,600 down through Andre Iguodala at $2,400. That’s nine plays bunched together in close proximity to one another, of which we’re probably going to need at least two in every lineup.
My preferred play from this grouping is to take an overweight position on Markieff Morris. Frank Vogel ramped up his minutes to 26 and 30 in Games 3 and 4, respectively, as the Lakers have opted to run Anthony Davis at the five and nearly eliminate Dwight Howard from the rotation. He’s draining 3’s at a 42.3% clip in this series and chipping in a few rebounds and assists per game to elevate his floor. Add in that he’s still underpriced at $3,600 and keeps popping up in winning lineups throughout this series, and I’m happy to ride the hot hand with Morris tonight.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups
This could very well be the final NBA slate of 2020, so enjoy it. The thing that excites me most about today is the pricing is actually solid on both sites. That means if you’re accounting for ownership and making appropriate pivots, there’s a discernible edge to be had.
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