It’s hard to imagine a slate going much worse for me than Tuesday. Between the Blake Griffin injury and the Heat and Pelicans getting blown out, I’m excited to pretend like yesterday never happened. Fortunately, this is NBA DFS where a new day provides a new opportunity for redemption. So let’s dive right into Wednesday, Dec. 30’s six-game slate and the NBA DFS picks we’re looking at on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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The NBA DFS Slate Starter: DraftKings + FanDuel Strategy & Picks 12/30
Here We Go Again
Wednesday brings with it a wonky situation, as the Bucks and Heat will play one another for a second night in a row in the exact same arena. The visiting Bucks went completely nuclear in game 1, setting a new NBA record with 29 made 3-pointers en route to a 144-97 thrashing. While that’s great and all for them, this turned exposure to nearly every Buck player not named Jrue Holiday into a disastrous bust. The same is true on the other side of the ball, where Tyler Herro was the lone standout Heat performer despite a team-worst -32 plus/minus.
The major reason I’m bringing this up is that salaries were released while this game was still in progress. That means salaries didn’t adjust for anything that took place. So as chalky as Herro was Tuesday, his price that somehow dropped $300 on DraftKings ($5,400) and remained the same on FanDuel ($4,500) will make him infinitely more chalky today. Add in that there are four fewer games on this slate, and get ready to see some scarily high ownership projections on the second-year player out of Kentucky tomorrow.
On the other side of the coin, Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s price didn’t change either despite a fourth consecutive underwhelming performance. He was the lone Buck to not to make a 3 on Tuesday on the way to a paltry 30.5 DraftKings points total. It’s hard to imagine on a slate featuring Luka Doncic for $100 less that Giannis will be the preferred pay-up option of the two on that site.
However, recency bias is a definite thing, so expect a slight bump to Holiday’s ownership and a major bump to Herro’s coming off Tuesday. I also foresee Antetokounmpo receiving less ownership than he should despite factors beyond his control causing the subpar outing. I’m not entirely sure what to do with the pieces from this game yet, but it’s certainly going to be a make-or-break decision in tournaments that I want you to start thinking about now. Be sure to check in with the Awesemo ownership projections and the boom/bust tool early and often tomorrow, and hopefully we can all come to the correct decision on the Herro chalk together for our NBA DFS lineups.
Here We Go Again Again
The past two slates have had major injury news hanging in the balance involving the stars of Los Angeles. The Lakers’ LeBron James was questionable Monday but ended up playing, while Kawhi Leonard was questionable Tuesday and sat. And now we have a situation where both will be listed as questionable in the final two games of the night. If there’s no news ahead of lock for these two, buckle up.
Most people think that since DraftKings and FanDuel both have late swap this season, there’s less stress than would typically be involved here. But while getting a zero in your lineup might be less of concern, the amount of salary you’d have to lock in with either James or Leonard in your lineups is the problem. You also tend to need more than one roster spot left available in your lineups, as swapping to value that would open up should one be in your lineup and ruled out requires a lot of tinkering.
In situations such as this, even if I plan on using an optimizer for the slate, I spend a lot of time hand-building various scenarios. The easiest thing to know right off the bat is that the LeBron-to-Anthony Davis pivot for $100 less works seamlessly on DraftKings. But on FanDuel, it’s more difficult to divvy up the salary if there aren’t multiple spots left open to work with since they play different positions. Spend some time making lineups to see how the prices fit together and what pivots are available to you should news break one way or the other.
And with regards to Leonard, if he’s ruled in after the Lakers and Spurs game tips, you have an elite low-owned tournament play on your hands. But if he’s ruled out, that creates a nightmare on both sites. If he were to be in your utility spot on DraftKings, you’re leaving $800 on the table to get down to Paul George. That is not catastrophic, but certainly suboptimal. And if you put Leonard in your small forward spot on FanDuel and he gets ruled out as your only remaining player, Carmelo Anthony at $4,300 is the next listed option. That means you’d be leaving a whopping $5,600 on the table.
Obviously I don’t know how or when this news is going to shake out, but I do know the slate hinges on it. Make sure to check out Live Before Lock, as Dave Loughran and Adam Scherer will surely provide plenty of information on this and more.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups
On a six-game slate, the chalk will be more pronounced than we saw yesterday. Get ready to take some strong stands if you choose not to play the Tyler Herros of the world.
And speaking of strong stands, I’m going back to the well on Giannis today. It might be difficult to make builds with him and Doncic work if there isn’t an influx of value in the afternoon. But if left to choose between the two, give me all of the two-time MVP coming off a dud at reduced ownership.
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