We’re onto Game 2 after a tremendous Game 1 in which JR Smith singlehandedly torpedoed one of LeBron James’ greatest playoff performances with a boneheaded play that resulted in far better memes than it did in helping the Cavaliers’ win odds:
THERE’S ALWAYS MONEY IN THE BANANA STAND pic.twitter.com/6XNZ2Isvut
— morgan dipiero (@morganndipiero) June 2, 2018
But tonight is JR’s shot at redemption and yours, a situation where we’ve got some big tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel as the Cavs are in desperate need of stealing a win to have any shot in this series. Awesemo already has his rankings out and ownership projections will be out closer to lock. Without further adieu though, my breakdown in the Switch and Hedge:
Cleveland Cavaliers (104 implied points) at Golden State Warriors (112 implied points)
LeBron James had none of his perceived Game 1 malaise in the first matchup versus Golden State en route to posting an unreal 51-8-8 on 19-for-32 shooting. LeBron is amazing but the odds of keeping up that degree of offensive efficiency are not the highest. What’s more likely is we see some adjustments by Golden State designed to take the ball out of LeBron’s hands, a situation in which LeBron will likely have to get his value from creating offense for others. He’s a rock solid play and one that should at least give a chance for other guys on the team to hit some shots and exceed value on their end. Kevin Love is a likely beneficiary after putting up 20 shots in Game 1, the second most attempts he’s had in these playoffs. He’s at a good price and should be comparably effective without a great matchup for him on Golden State’s side. Jeff Green saw 36 minutes of run in Game 1 and even though his usage rate isn’t too compelling and his price is still up from his big Game 7 filling in for Kevin Love, he’s a decent but not spectacular play today. I wouldn’t bank on him at large volume but having some exposure to him makes sense. I don’t see George Hill being a factor tonight though I should note I’m always kind of down on him. I’d like him more at home in Game 3. I do think JR Smith can get enough going to be useful, even though I would mitigate exposure to him in case there’s some fallout from his big Game 1 gaffe. If he did see less minutes, not something I’m banking on but it is a possibility, Jeff Green and Kyle Korver would likely get a boost. Korver can’t keep on the floor defensively though and that’s a real issue for his value even though his price is super tempting. I’d personally rather go Larry Nance or Jordan Clarkson; the former kicked ass in Game 1 and sniped minutes from a less-effective Tristan Thompson while the latter was much maligned but proved he can still have value and a ton of upside if his shot actually falls. He’s not as bad of a player as it may seem at times and in fact I’d say Clarkson offensively is the equivalent of a port-a-fort in Fortnite. Sometimes he’ll build a castle for you that no one saw coming that is a total bonus that leads you to a win and sometimes you’ll pop him up in the middle of the storm and give up your position only to end up sniped from 100 meters out shortly thereafter. I think today has a shot at being a Good Clarkson day (and if it isn’t, we may be dangerously close to The Return of Rodney Hood). Lastly, I think there’s some logic in Thompson tonight after his dud of a Game 1. As I said in the last Switch and Hedge, I believe Nance is the better matchup versus Golden State but Thompson still gets the crunch time minutes and will always get the first chance at success that could keep Nance on the bench.
On the Warriors’ side, Draymond Green jumps out as the best mix of value and upside. He was strong in Game 1, has been great throughout the years when played at center versus Cleveland, and he can do enough of everything to be useful from a fantasy perspective. He’s the lone player to pick up an A in points and value in Awesemo’s rankings and it’s hard to argue that viewpoint. Both Steph Curry and Kevin Durant get similar projections from me and I have no issue with playing them depending upon how your roster shakes out. LeBron has a higher ceiling and floor, Draymond and Love are cheaper plays with comparable upside, there may be a logic in banking on Durant and Curry as others pivot to the more obvious plays. Klay Thompson also seems like a guy who may be lost in the mix after his serviceable Game 1 despite an ankle injury that took him out of the mix. He’s currently questionable but expected to play and had his best game of the Houston series in a similar questionable-and-gimpy spot. Kevon Looney may have worked himself out of the starting lineup with mediocre but not spectacular play. The starting lineup here is key; if Looney is benched for Javale McGee, as was the case to start the second half, he may be the more interesting play to trot out there at a minimum salary. Jordan Bell didn’t really get enough run either despite being more effective per-minute than Looney and while I’m a little intrigued by him, I wouldn’t trust him as much as I did in the Houston series. Shaun Livingston got a lot of run in the second half as a defensive adjustment with Draymond Green at center. Without Andre Iguodala, Livingston should be needed for that role again but it is worth noting Livingston can throw up duds despite getting the minutes he needs. He’s at a great price point, though and an A value according to Awesemo. Nick Young got a little run and he could maybe be useful if you’re entering a ton of entries. I don’t think he’s in the headspace to capitalize since he really didn’t do much with Klay in the locker room and questionable to return in Game 1 but he does get a few minutes. David West got a minimal amount of minutes as well and I view him as similar to Young but even less appealing so he’s got that going for him.
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There we go, everything you need to know about Game 2. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and enjoy the game tonight!
