While seemingly the entire sports world is at a halt, the NFL season isn’t slowing down. The 2020 NFL Draft is going on as planned with teams making their picks remotely. And while there are rumors of tech issues and potential pitfalls that may derail the whole process, we are operating under the assumption that picks will progress as normal. As those picks come through Adam Pfeifer will update the board and provide analysis as to how picks and trades affect the teams and how the rest of the draft may take shape. Check out his analysis below.
Draft Picks
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Pick Analysis
Pick 1: Bengals select QB Joe Burrow, LSU
(Taking a real leap here and saying Burrow goes #1)
The consensus top pick for months now, Burrow should step in and start right away for the Bengals. Burrow put together one of the greatest collegiate seasons of all time last year, throwing for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 76.3 percent completion rate. There haven’t been many quarterbacks to come out with better touch than Burrow, who displayed gaudy accuracy last year. He posted an 81.9 percent adjusted completion percentage, per Pro Football Focus, while sporting the highest percentage of on-target passes since PFF began charting such plays.
he averaged 10.8 yards per attempt and was very impressive when the pocket collapsed. Assuming he goes to the Bengals, that is notable, as Cincinnati signal callers averaged 2.3 seconds in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball, or having the pocket collapse. It was tied for the lowest number in football, while the Bengals offensive line also sported an 8.4 percent adjusted sack rate, the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. Things should be better with Jonah Williams, the team’s top pick in last year’s draft, hopefully healthy. He missed all of his rookie campaign.
The only real knock on Burrow’s game is his questionable arm strength but he more than makes up for it with elite accuracy. He’ll be the Bengals new franchise quarterback and an interesting streamer for fantasy in Zac Taylor’s West Coast offense. His accuracy would fit well in this system, and a receiving corps of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Auden Tate would be nothing to scoff at.
Pick 5: Dolphins select QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
A popular landing spot in many mocks, the Dolphins now have their quarterback of the future– and perhaps the present. Over the last year, Tagovailoa has dealt with an ankle sprain, a concussion and most notably, a fractured hip that is a very serious injury. As a result, he played just nine games last season, though he was once again fantastic, completing 71.4 percent of his passes and tossing 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions. And, of course, his 2018 campaign was incredible, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards, 43 touchdowns and six interceptions and adding 190 yards and an additional five scores on the ground. When right, Tagovailoa is right there with Burrow as a prospect.
His footwork is sensational and has a lightning quick release when throwing the football. Tagovailoa has the potential to be a deadly play-action passer and takes care of the football, sporting a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8:1. The biggest weakness, of course, is the durability, as Tagovailoa isn’t the biggest guy in the world, and we already highlighted the injuries he’s dealt with. And this hip issue could certainly impact him going forward. I also would like to see him perform better under pressure, as he’ll panic at times. He can do a great job of escaping the pass rush and extending the play, but his decision-making when out of the pocket isn’t always ideal. He also tends to hold onto the ball a bit too long, similar to someone like Deshaun Watson,which can result in magical plays, as well as disastrous ones.
For fantasy purposes, Tua will be an avoid for me if he plays this year, which I believe he will. Outside of DeVante Parker, the Dolphins lack a ton of playmakers, which Tagovailoa had at Alabama. Miami still has plenty of picks to build around him but the offensive line is very much a work in progress. Last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick was under duress on just over 39 percent of his drop backs, one of the highest rates in the NFL. There is potential for Tua as an NFL and fantasy signal caller but I believe it won’t be as evident in year one. Fitzpatrick did post QB1 numbers in fantasy during the final eight weeks of the season but that was mainly due to Miami having zero run game, while also trailing each week. It will be interesting to see what else Miami adds over the course of the weekend.
Pick 6: Chargers select QB Justin Herbert, Oregon
Where Burrow and Tagovailoa have plenty of touch, Herbert struggles a bit in that department. His arm strength is possibly the best in this class but his accuracy is still a work in progress. The overall completion rate from last year (66.8%) is a bit misleading, as his receivers didn’t offer him much help, dropping 7.4 percent of his attempts, one of the worst rates in the nation. And at 6-foot-6, 236 pounds, Herbert has the ideal frame for an NFL quarterback while providing some mobility, despite the size. Of course, “some” is the operative word, as Herbert definitely struggled to escape from blitzes and pressure over the last few seasons.
There is upside for a player like Herbert, especially in Los Angeles with a ton of weapons in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn, who was Buffalo’s offensive coordinator alongside Tyrod Taylor, continues to state that the veteran quarterback is not a bridge-gap option. We’ll see how long that lasts but if Taylor loses his job, Herbert does have potential in a fantasy-friendly offense with plenty of weapons. I do think it also could help these pass-catchers, as Herbert can run but wouldn’t run nearly as much as Taylor. Williams, who ranked third in the NFL with an 18.2 average depth of target in 2019, could benefit from a strong-armed, aggressive passer like Herbert. But he’s definitely a work in progress.
Pick 12: Raiders select WR Henry Ruggs, Alabama
Speed, speed and more speed. Ruggs will already be one of the fastest players in the NFL He ran a blazing 4.27 40-yard dash and his speed will alter how opposing defenses will have to defend whatever team he ends up with. Ruggs will be able to change a game instantly. Ruggs also has really strong, dependable hands that should make him a reliable target. He didn’t show much promise against bigger, physical corners, which is a slight concern, but you can move a player like Ruggs all over the formation. The landing spot in Oakland is interesting, as they saw the emergence of Darren Waller in 2019, who had one of the highest market shares among all tight ends. Hopefully that speed will lead to plenty of separation from Ruggs because these Oakland passers don’t force throws into tight windows. In fact, 11.7 percent of Derek Carr’s pass attempts were into tight windows last year, the second-lowest rate among all passers. His field-stretching ability should help Josh Jacobs and company, though. I don’t think Ruggs is the best receiver in this class but he could see the most targets.
Pick 15: Broncos select WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
There were concerns he’d fall due to some knee issues but Jeudy comes off the board and will pair with Courtland Sutton to lead Denver’s receiver group. I’m a sucker for a receiver who knows how to run routes and Jeudy is an artist in that department. He can change speeds effortlessly, and his footwork and athleticism should allow him to get open very often at the next level. His acceleration makes him a deadly deep threat but he can stop on an absolute dime when he needs to, which makes him such a dangerous route-runner. And once the ball in his hands, he often looks like a running back, running with power and great lateral agility. Jeudy is the most complete wideout in this loaded class and will be able to help the growth of second-year quarterback, Drew Lock. Denver can use Jeudy inside a good bit, which was missing after the team dealt Emmanuel Sanders. Jeudy operated out of the slot 60 percent of the time at Alabama in 2019, while Sutton was in the slot just over 21 percent of the time with the Broncos last year. I think this move is a slight downgrade to Sutton, while Jeudy is a WR4 on draft day. Locks’ stock, meanwhile, is clearly on the rise.
Pick 17: Cowboys select WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
Wow. My favorite player in this class, I selfishly wanted Lamb to land somewhere he’d see 120 targets. This certainly isn’t it, as Dallas already has an alpha in Amari Cooper, as well as an emerging, legit number-two or three in Michael Gallup. Let’s talk about Lamb, the player. If you are looking for a wideout to win contested catch battles, look no further than Lamb. Over the last two seasons, Lamb hauled in 10-of-17 contested catch situations and led the nation last season with 3.99 yards per route run. His ball-tracking skills are absolutely elite, as Lamb has the ability to contort his body in mid air and make all of the adjustments necessary to come down with the football. There isn’t a better receiver at the catch point in this class and Lamb made plenty of big plays, averaging 21.4 yards per reception in 2019. He was also dangerous after the catch, forcing 26 missed tackles on 62 receptions, while averaging 9.2 yards after the catch per grab over his final two seasons. For fantasy, this is honestly brutal. It hurts Lamb’s immediate impact, while Cooper and Gallup take slight hits. The Cowboys had a need at slot receiver so it’ll be interesting to see where these guys line up, though Lamb lined up inside just 30 percent of the time last year. Gallup, meanwhile, was in the slot just over seven percent of the time in 2019 with Dallas. If Cooper, who was inside 14 percent of the time, moves there in a Michael Thomas role, he could wreak havoc with his route-running skills. Back in 2016, Cooper’s numbers out of the slot: 20 catches, 31 targets, 262 yards, 3 TD. 2.52 yards/route run. Dallas’ offense should be unstoppable this year and Dak Prescott, my QB3, will benefit greatly.
Pick 21: Eagles select WR Jalen Reagor, TCU
The Eagles had an obvious need at wideout and while many expected the pick to be Justin Jefferson, Raegor gets selected. The TCU-product recorded 1,049 yards and nine touchdowns in 2018 but fell back down to earth last year. However, TCU had awful quarterback play throughout the season. Per PFF, 31 percent of his targets were deemed catchable, easily the lowest rate among all receivers from this class. He’s right up there with Jeudy as the best separation artists in this class and despite being just 5’11”, Reagor hauled in 15-of-31 contested catch opportunities back in 2018. Reagor has big play potential, as nearly 52 percent of his catches over the last two seasons went for 15 yards or more. He’ll immediately slide in as the number two receiver and could be their top receiver at one point, as Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are essentially guaranteed to miss time due to injury. Don’t be shocked if Reagor is the top rookie wideout in fantasy this season.
Pick 22: Vikings select WR Justin Jefferson, LSU
Of course, I wouldn’t be shocked if Jefferson led the class in fantasy scoring either. After trading Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, a wideout was obviously going to be drafted somewhat early by the Vikings. Jefferson can fit in very nicely in Minnesota, as he can play in the slot and out wide, just like new teammate Adam Thielen. Last year at LSU, Jefferson ran 575 of 583 routes from the slot, while his 109 slot receptions led the nation. But make no mistake. Jefferson can play out wide and is a very strong contested catch guy, hauling in 12 of his 13 contested looks. The Vikings still figure to be one of the run-heaviest teams in football but Jefferson could easily lead all rookie receivers in targets, while getting solid matchups opposite Thielen. You could make the argument for Jefferson as the top rookie receiver off the board.
Pick 25: 49ers select WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
I wanted Lamb to land here but the 49ers traded back, then back up to 25 to select Aiyuk. This is a very, very nice fit, as Aiyuk led all wideouts in this class in yards after the catch per reception (9.9). Meanwhile, 49ers signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo led all quarterbacks last season in yards after the catch per completion (6.6), as head coach Kyle Shanahan does a great job of scheming this playmakers into good positions. We saw Sanders average 5.3 targets per game after joining San Francisco last year, not massive numbers on a top-three offense in terms of rushing rate, but respectable. And with how this team schemes their playmakers, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Aiyuk outscore some of the wideouts drafted ahead of him.
Pick 26: Packers select QB Jordan Love, Utah State
Wow. The Packers move up four spots to draft (what they hope is) Aaron Rodgers’ air apparent, Jordan Love. An extremely talented passer, Love is also extremely raw. The decision-making was very questionable at times last year, as Love tossed 17 interceptions, throwing multiple picks in six games. Love completed just 32 percent of his deep passes in 2019 and I expect him, whenever he plays, to be an up-and-down signal caller. He plays with that backyard football style, which is both exciting and absolutely terrifying. He obviously isn’t playing this season unless Rodgers gets hurt, and probably not for the foreseeable future.
Pick 32: Chiefs end first round with RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
The Chiefs end the night with a bang, drafting CEH with the final pick of the first round. Edwards-Helaire is the first running back off the board and the fit with Andy Reid is absurd. More quick than fast, Edwards-Helaire isn’t someone who will fly past opposing defenders. But he is still a damn good running back, especially in the passing game. He is a very good route-runner and can make plays after the catch with the ball in his hands. Edwards-Helaire gets low to the ground and has fantastic lateral quickness, which can also helps teams in the return game, as he averaged a strong 22 yards per return during his collegiate career. The knocks are his size (5-foot-7, 207 pounds), which results in average power in short-yardage situations. I could see him being in a limited role, at least for the first year of his career, with pass-catching potential in the right situation.Well this is the right situation, as Kansas City is an elite offense. CEH instantly becomes the top overall rookie in redraft formats and will be a top-30 back in PPR formats heading into the season. The Chiefs can line up him in the backfield and out wide, where he lined up 26 percent of the time, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.
