With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, dynasty and fantasy drafts are on the horizon. Focusing on the skill-position players, here is a list of the top eight quarterbacks from an analytical perspective in this year’s 2021 NFL Draft class. Arguably as strong, or even stronger than the 2018 class featuring Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson, this quarterback group holds elite potential at the NFL level.
2021 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 8 Rookie Quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence – Clemson
Coming in as perhaps the top prospect since Andrew Luck, Lawrence received No. 1 overall hype the day he stepped on Clemson’s campus. Very much living up to the hype, Lawrence only lost two games in his collegiate career and showed the ability to make every throw on the field. Also bringing elite 6-6, 213-pound size to the equation, little holes can be poked in Lawrence’s game.
As a true freshman, Lawrence quickly displaced Kelley Bryant and started Clemson’s final 11 games. He threw for 3,280 yards, 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes. As a sophomore, Lawrence posted similar stats with 3,666 yards, 36 touchdowns and on eight interceptions, with Clemson eventually losing to LSU in the title game. However, Lawrence showed his true skills as a junior after Clemson lost four starting offensive linemen, Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross in the offseason. With the weakest supporting cast of his career, Lawrence threw for 3,152 yards, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing a career high 69.2% of his passes in just 10 games.
From an efficiency perspective, Lawrence also remains among the elite. His adjusted completion percentage came in at 77.3%, which ranked 13th in the country last year. Lawrence showed the ability to evade pressure and release the ball quickly, as his 2.34 seconds per throw ranked among the top of this class. In addition to rushing for 200+ yards in each of his final two seasons, Lawrence showed a keen ability to create outside of structure.
Long to be rumored going to the Jacksonsville Jaguars, this once-lost franchise now finds their future signal caller. For fantasy purposes, Lawrence actually enters a somewhat strong situation. Jacksonville retains all five starting offensive linemen and added Marvin Jones to a receiving group already containing Laviska Shenault and DJ Chark.
2. Zach Wilson – BYU
While a case can be made for Fields as the second quarterback drafted, Wilson simply performed at another level in 2020. After battling through injury for much of his career, Wilson finally put everything together as a junior. Still only 21 years old, Wilson stands 6-2, 214-pounds. While somewhat lacking in size, Wilson still looks like a future starting quarterback in the NFL after his strong showing last season.
Starting seven and nine games in his first two seasons, Wilson initially looked like another standard college quarterback. As a sophomore, Wilson threw for 2,382 yards, 11 scores, and nine interceptions, while completing just 62.4% of his passes. However, Wilson showed sharp improvement as a junior, throwing for 3,692 yards, 33 scores and three interceptions while completing 73.5% of his passes. Unlike Lawrence, this performance did come against weaker competition with Wilson rarely facing pressure behind BYU’s elite offensive line. Still, the production itself cannot be dismissed.
From an efficiency perspective, Wilson remains both accurate and athletic. Wilson posted an 80.3% adjusted completion percentage, which ranked fourth in the country last year. Wilson also excelled throwing the ball downfield with 1,286 deep yards, which ranked third in the country. As a highly-athletic prospect, Wilson also rushed for 254 yards and ten scores, showing his ability to create outside of structure.
Likely coming off the board at number two to the Jets, Wilson doesn’t enter a situation as favorable as Lawrence. However, with two first round picks and extra draft capital, the Jets have a chance to build around their young signal caller right from the start.
3. Justin Fields – Ohio State
Recently a hot-button topic in NFL Draft circles, Fields remains the third-ranked quarterback due to his strong overall analytical profile. A two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields displayed similar accuracy to Mac Jones and similar athleticism to Trey Lance, giving him the overall superior analytical profile. Standing 6-3, 227-pounds, Fields ran a 4.46 40-yard dash, making him the third quarterback on this list with an elite prospect profile.
After initially attending Georgia for a season, Fields transferred to Ohio State and started his subsequent two seasons. As a sophomore, Fields threw for 3,273 yards, 41 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 67.2% of his passes. Even more impressive, Fields bested these numbers as a junior with 2,100 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions with a 70.2% completion percentage in just eight games. Fields also displayed his elite athleticism with at least 383 rushing yards in both of his years as a starter at Ohio State.
From an efficiency perspective, Fields remains as clean as they come. Fields’ 80.8% adjusted completion percentage ranked second in the country last year. He also routinely pushed the ball downfield with a 10.4 average depth of target, which trails only Trey Lance among the big five quarterbacks. One main concern with Fields is his ability to process the field and quickly read defenses. Fields averaged 3.11 seconds per throw, which is the slowest among signal callers in this draft. In his defense, Ohio State’s offense often asked him to hold onto the ball, waiting for his first read to uncover. This also shows up in his average depth of target mentioned above.
Still, Fields has been mocked anywhere from No. 3 overall to outside the Top-10. With his rushing ability, Fields has a legitimate chance to find early success in the NFL as a rusher. As a passer, Fields needs to speed up his reads, but the accuracy is also there for a successful NFL future.
4. Mac Jones – Alabama
After taking over for an injured Tua Tagovailoa mid-season in 2019, Mac Jones returned in 2020 to play his one full season as Alabama’s full-time starting quarterback. Despite barely eclipsing 150 total passing attempts in his first three seasons at Alabama, Jones vaulted himself into the Top-5 list of quarterbacks in this class with a historic 2020 season. Standing 6-3, 217-pounds, Jones provides solid size for the position. Shockingly, he was also able to run a 4.82 40-yard dash, despite his statue-esque presence.
Isolating Jones final season at Alabama, the one-year-wonder threw for 4,500 yards, 41 scores and four interceptions while completing 77.4% of his passes in 13 games. Mentioned above, Jones only ran for 14 yards the entire year, showing little no ability to create with his legs. As a pure pocket-passer, Jones thrived through accuracy. Jones’ 84.2% adjusted completion percentage ranked first in the country this year. However, Jones only threw with an 8.8 average depth of target. He also only threw into 44 tight windows all year long. Comparatively, 2019 one-year-wonder Joe Burrow threw into 124.
Known for his ability to read defenses, teams continue to covet Jones’ accuracy and quick processing skills. Notably, Tagovailoa struggled when making the jump to the NFL coming out of the same offense. Still, rumors continue to swirl around Jones coming off the board number three to San Francisco. With Kyle Shanahan calling plays, Jones still possesses a solid chance at NFL success despite his athletic limitations. If Jones falls, other situations may not be as kind to the pure pocket passer.
5. Trey Lance – North Dakota State
As the player with the most upside in the entire class, Lance will look to be the third consecutive quarterback drafted out of North Dakota State following Carson Wentz and Easton Stick. Standing 6-4, 224-pounds, Lance possesses all of the intangibles and none of the experience at the quarterback position. However, as Josh Allen displayed recently, toolsy quarterbacks can find NFL success in the correct environments.
The scariest thing on the Lance profile is his lack of experience. A one-year starter, Lance only played one game in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Also playing in a run-heavy offense, North Dakota State averaged 18 pass attempts and 45 rush attempts per game in 2019. Still, Lance threw for 2,786 yards, 28 scores, and no interceptions against weak FCS competition in 2019. Perhaps the best pure runner at the position, Lance also put up 1,100 yards and 14 scores on the ground. While Lance looked solid in a small sample, he didn’t back that up in his single 2020 game. Facing a strong Central Arkansas team with NFL talent on defense (Robert Rochell), Lance completed just 50% of his passes for 149 yards, two scores, and an interception.
In total, Lance threw 318 passes in his entire college career. Lance also displayed accuracy issues with a 72% adjusted completion percentage. Easily the lowest among the top five, Lance possesses legitimate concerns as a passer. Notably, Lance also averaged 2.92 seconds per pass attempt which bested only Justin Fields at the top of the class. Despite the production concerns and numerous other developmental projects that fail every year at the NFL level, Lance continues to receive top five hype. Unlike other developmental prospects, Lance can always fall back on his legs. As Jalen Hurts displayed last year, sometimes rushing ability is the only thing necessary for fantasy purposes. As for true NFL longevity, Lance requires the most development.
6. Kyle Trask – Florida
Outside of the top three quarterbacks, rankings continue to diverge with Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, and Kellen Mond all ranking number six according to some services. The only prospect of the three with an elite season on record, Trask gets the nod here. Backup to D’Eriq King in high school, Trask’s lack of starting experience rivals Trey Lance (but not really, Trask has more pass attempts in 2020 than Lance does in his career). Playing behind Feleipe Franks for most of his collegiate career, Trask eventually took over the starting job due to injury in 2019 before his historic 2020 season. Standing 6-5, 236-pounds, Trask embodies the prototypical pocket passer.
Mentioned above, Trask burst onto the scene as a red-shirt senior after completing 67% of his passes for 2,941 yards and 25 scores in ten starts in 2019. In this historic season, Trask finished fourth in the Heisman voting while passing for 4,282 yards, 43 scores, and eight interceptions. Also posting a 76.6% adjusted completion percentage, Trask showed solid accuracy from the pocket. Unlike Mac Jones however, Trask doesn’t even have the athleticism on paper. Trask ran a 5.07 40-yard dash, but still registered 64 rush attempts in his final season at Florida.
Trask remains an interesting developmental prospect after playing so little football in his career. He is already 23, making a little old in his development cycle. However, Trask remains the only player in this cohort to register an elite collegiate season. Trask likely comes off the board on day two as a developmental prospect.
7. Davis Mills – Stanford
A former five-star recruit coming out of high school, Davis Mills missed essentially his first two seasons at Stanford rehabbing a severe knee injury with multiple setbacks. After taking over the starting job midway through 2019, Mills’ 2020 season was also limited to just five games due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While Mills stands 6-4, 217-pounds with a 4.81 40-yard dash, his 11-career starts make him more of a developmental prospect in this year’s class.
From a production standpoint, Mills never really performed at a high level consistently. In his five-game redshirt junior season, Mills completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,508 yards, seven scores, and three interceptions. His adjusted completion percentage sits at 78.8% giving him some intrigue as a developmental passer at the next level. Still, Mills plays with a bulky knee brace and remains an injury concern on top of his lack of experience.
While Mills has received some first round hype, he likely comes off the board sometime on day two or later. He flashed the talent that NFL teams will try to develop, but his also makes him landing spot dependent.
8. Kellen Mond – Texas A&M
Another signal caller with a checkered collegiate past, Kellen Mond holds the Texas A&M record for most career passing yards. Standing 6-3, 211-pounds, Mond brings decent size to the quarterback position. He also remains fairly athletic with a 4.61 40-yard dash under his belt. While he continues to receive hype as a developmental prospect, Mond still likely hears his name called on day two or three.
A four-year starter at Texas A&M, Mond never completed more than 63.3% of his passes in any individual season. While he played with a weaker supporting cast that his SEC counterparts, his lacking accuracy stands out. Positively, Mond did show improvement over each season, giving him hope for a developmental prospect. In 2020, he threw for 2,282 yards, 19 scores, and three interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards.
Similar to Fields in that he doesn’t always utilize his athleticism, Mond still hasn’t put together all of his tools into the complete product. Some teams may view him as a dual threat developmental prospect, but he hasn’t displayed elite play at any point in his college career.
