2021 NFL Draft: Rookie Running Back Rankings

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, dynasty and fantasy drafts are on the horizon. Focusing on the skill position players, here is a list of the top ten running backs from an analytical perspective in this year’s 2021 NFL Draft class. While not as strong as the 2020 class, this incoming crop of rookies features a number of players with three-down profiles at the NFL level.

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2021 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Rookie Running Backs

1. Travis Etienne – Clemson

Making the curious decision to return to Clemson for his senior season, Etienne appears to have helped his draft stock. Now the all-time leading rusher in ACC history, Etienne leaves Clemson as a true three-down back with immense production. Still just 22 years old, Etienne stands 5-foot-10, 215 pounds. Also registering a 4.41 40-yard dash and 33.5-inch vertical jump, Etienne is one of the most athletic runners in recent years.

From a production standpoint, Etienne immediately produced at Clemson during his freshman season. Displacing former five-star recruit Tavien Feaster, Etienne notched 776 yards on just 107 attempts (7.2 yards per carry). He followed this up with feature back roles as a sophomore and junior, posting 1,658 and 1,614 rushing yards, respectively (8.1 and 7.8 yards per carry). Also hyper-active on special teams, Etienne returned 32 career kicks, 19 of which occurred as a freshman.

Despite already putting enough on film for an early round selection in 2020, Etienne decided to return to school. With Clemson losing four starting offensive linemen, the Tigers’ yards before contact dropped from 3.8 yards in 2018 to 1.8 yards in 2020. This affected Etienne’s efficiency as a rusher and he only accumulated 914 yards on the ground (5.4). Interestingly, Etienne’s forced missed tackle rate also dropped from an elite 0.44 rate to 0.26 this season. Still, Etienne expanded his game as a receiver with 48 receptions and 588 yards, boosting his draft stock.

An already weaker class than 2020, Etienne made himself some money returning to school and improving as a receiver. Right now, bookmakers believe 1-2 runners will come off the board on day one, but multiple mocks do not include a single back. Likely a mid-day two pick at the latest, Etienne should find immediate opportunity in an NFL offense with his size, speed and collegiate production.

2. Najee Harris – Alabama

Similar to Etienne, Harris also made the curious decision to return for his senior season at Alabama. Unlike many prospects before him, Harris also avoided the injury bug and produced an elite season as a receiver. Standing 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, Harris possesses strong size. However, he’s already 23 years old and failed to test athletically at Alabama’s pro day. While Harris has a strong chance to come off the board first among rushers, his profile still presents a few question marks.

While Etienne fought off a five-star collegiate runner, Harris battled legitimate NFL backs Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs during his first two seasons with the Crimson Tide. Even with the competition, Alabama burned Harris redshirt, allowing him to accumulate 370 and 783 rushing yards during his first two seasons on campus. After Harris and Jacobs entered the 2019 NFL Draft, Harris posted 1,224 rushing yards and 27 receptions as a junior. Solid enough for an early round selection in the NFL Draft, Harris still decided to return to school. Playing behind the country’s top offensive line in 2020, Harris notched 1,446 yards and 43 receptions as a senior. More importantly, Harris showed a diverse receiving skillset often featuring routes from the slot or split wide.

Harris improved his draft stock, displaying the ability to play on all three downs. However, he still brings athletic limitations. He only has 25 carries of 20+ yards despite 638 career carries behind the nation’s top offensive line. He also is average at forcing missed tackles (0.27 per attempt), ranking behind numerous backs in the class. Despite the athletic limitations and advanced age, Harris is atop a weak running back class with solid size and production at the college level. Rumors continue to swirl of a Pittsburgh selection in Round 1, but Harris should come off the board early on day two at the latest.

3. Javonte Williams – North Carolina

A late riser in the 2020 class, Javonte Williams entered college without the impressive recruiting profile. Despite ranking as the 94th running back in the 2018 recruiting class, North Carolina immediately burned Williams redshirt. Only 21 years old, Williams is one of the youngest runners in the class. He also stands 5-foot-10, 212 pounds with a 4.57 40-yard dash and 36-inch vertical.

After a freshman season with 224 yards on 43 carries, Williams fully erupted in his sophomore season. Williams notched 933 yards on 166 attempts in 13 games, while teammate Michael Carter narrowly bested his rushing totals. As a junior, Williams turned up the efficiency with 1,140 yards, 22 scores and another 305 yards in the pass game. Impressively, he racked up these numbers in 11 games and on 157 attempts (7.3 yards per carry).

From an efficiency perspective, Williams paces the class in nearly every metric. When adjusted for overall rushing attempts, Williams’ 831 yards after contact and 75 forced missed tackles easily lead the class. Adept as a receiver, Williams has a legitimate chance to come off the board ahead of Etienne and Harris. While still ranked third on most boards, Williams sits firmly in the big three and likely comes off the board early on day two.


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4. Trey Sermon – Ohio State

Outside of the top three backs, most rushers look like role players with upside in this class. One of the few runners with a legitimate chance to carve out a three-down role, Sermon stands 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. Still 22 years old, Sermon ran a 4.58 40-yard dash and jumped 37 inches in the vertical. Another late season riser, Sermon’s heroics in the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff put him firmly on the NFL Draft radar.

Originally spending his first three seasons at Oklahoma, Sermon battled NFL rushers Rodney Anderson, Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kyler Murray and even Jalen Hurts for carries. A highly touted recruit, Sermon immediately posted 744 yards on 59 carries as a true freshman in 2017 (6.1 yards per carry). As a sophomore, Sermon improved further with 947 yards on 164 carries, while Brooks and Murray each eclipsed 1,000 yards.

As a junior, Sermon’s career at Oklahoma began to unravel. Tearing his LCL midway through the season, he only managed 385 yards during his 2019 campaign. With Brooks set to return in 2020, Sermon decided to enter the transfer portal and subsequently landed at Ohio State. In his final collegiate season, Sermon posted 870 rushing yards on 116 carries (7.5 yards per carry), while laughably splitting time with the inefficient Master Teague (4.9 yards per carry).

Sermon never received a full workload in any collegiate season, but he had at least 12 receptions in three of this four seasons. Seeing 20 carries just four times in his college career, Sermon actually has less wear on his body than most runners in the class. With 517 yards after contact and 33 forced missed tackles, Sermon is above average in most efficiency metrics. Like most mid-round backs, Sermon is landing spot dependent. However, unlike many backs in this class, Sermon possesses the size and athleticism to eventually work into a three-down role in the NFL.

5. Michael Carter – North Carolina

Contrary to the three backs listed above, Carter does not possess prototypical size. Standing 5-foot-8, 201 pounds, Carter ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at North Carolina’s pro day. Even with physical limitations, Carter still finished 2020 as one of the more productive rushers in the country alongside Javonte Williams, putting him in the day two conversation.

Despite entering college as a three-star recruit, North Carolina put Carter on the field immediately in a change-of-pace role. Carter notched 559 yards on just 97 carries in a timeshare during his inaugural season. Going into his sophomore year, Cater suffered a broken wrist in summer camp, limiting him to nine games. Getting a slow start, Carter still accounted for 597 yards on 84 attempts.

Moving forward to his junior season, Carter finally put together a full season of elite production. Carter posted 1,003 and 1,245 yards in back-to-back seasons, while also accumulating 21+ receptions in each of his final three season. Also dynamic on special teams, Carter returned 29 career kicks for 650 yards throughout his career at North Carolina.

Like Williams, Carter produced elite efficiency metrics. Carter ran for 814 yards after contact, which ranks only behind Williams in this class on a per attempt basis. He also forced 47 missed tackles, ranking near the top of the class. With size comparable to Giovani Bernard, Carter won’t be a fit for every team. However, he profiles as an elite change-of-pace back, with upside to handle a full workload in a pinch.

6. Khalil Herbert – Virginia Tech

Another late riser in the NFL Draft process, Herbert rejuvenated his collegiate career with a graduate transfer from Kansas to Virginia Tech ahead of the 2020 season. Standing 5-foot-9, 210 pounds, Herbert is one of the most explosive athletes in the 2021 NFL Draft class. While already 23 years old, Herbert ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at Virginia Tech’s pro day.

A three-star recruit coming out of college, Herbert accepted his only power-five offer to Kansas coming out of high school. After a 189-yard freshman season, Herbert emerged as Kansas’ leading rusher with 663 yards in 2017. The following season, Kansas somehow recruited another NFL runner in Pooka Williams, forcing a time-share in the backfield. Williams went on to eclipse 1,000 yards in back-to-back season, forcing Herbert to redshirt in 2019 and subsequently transfer.

Following the transfer, Herbert racked up 1,183 yards on 155 carries in his lone season at Virginia Tech (7.6 yards per carry). Also active on special teams, Herbert returned 18 kicks for 446 yards in his college career. Herbert also showed excellent efficiency at Virginia Tech. He created 782 yards after contact, which only ranks behind Michael Carter and Javonte Williams on a per attempt basis. Also forcing 42 missed tackles, Herbert possesses the physical profile to take a shot on late in drafts. While landing spot dependent, Herbert brings three-down potential at the NFL level.


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7. Kenny Gainwell – Memphis

One of the more intriguing prospects at the running back position, Gainwell originally played wide receiver at Memphis before converting to the running back position as a sophomore. Standing 5-foot-10, 201 pounds, Gainwell still possesses a slight build for a running back. Opting out of the 2020 season, Gainwell is a true wildcard in this class with just one year of experience at the position.

After just four carries in 2018, Memphis moved Gainwell to feature back duties following an injury to Patrick Taylor. Interestingly, Memphis preferred to use Gainwell as the team’s primary rusher over Antonio Gibson. Gainwell finished his lone college season at the position with 1,459 rushing yards on 231 carries. He also added another 610 yards on 51 receptions, working as the team’s true three-down back.

While slight in frame, Gainwell ran a 4.42 40-yard dash and jumped 35 inches in the vertical. Gainwell created 791 yards after contact and forced 56 missed tackles in his 2019 season. Adjusted for overall attempts, these metrics are average in the class. However, NFL teams will salivate at Gainwell’s profile for his prowess as a receiver. Already explosive, Gainwell also provides the versatility to be flexed into the slot. Still unlikely to handle a full workload, Gainwell has immense value as a potential third down back.

8. Rhamondre Stevenson – Oklahoma

Following a winding path to the NFL Draft, Stevenson stands 6-foot-0, 227 pounds with a 4.63 40-yard dash. Stevenson originally began his college career at the Junior College level, before getting to Oklahoma in 2019. Productive in a small sample, Stevenson still brings numerous questions on and off the field. Playing in a weak class, NFL teams could still take a shot on Stevenson’s potential as early as day two.

Getting to campus in 2019, Stevenson immediately entered a backfield containing Brooks, Sermon and Hurts. Even with the competition, Stevenson still created a role and finished with 515 rushing yards on just 64 carries (8.0 yards per carry). Unfortunately, Stevenson never played a full season as the feature back at Oklahoma. He served a six-game suspension to kick off 2020, but still finished as the team’s leading rusher. In all, he finished with 665 yards on 101 carries (6.6 yards per carry) in just six games in 2020.

Efficient as a rusher, Stevenson created 393 rushing yards after contact and forced 36 missed tackles. While his yards after contact is average, his forced missed tackle rate ranks second behind Javonte Williams in this class. Also displaying solid receiving production, Stevenson added 211 yards on 18 receptions in 2020. With an almost Eddie Lacy-like build, Stevenson doesn’t look like the average NFL rusher. However, Stevenson displayed enough production and athleticism to warrant a late day two or early day three selection.

9. Chuba Hubbard – Oklahoma State

If Harris and Etienne are the staples for running backs returning to college, Hubbard provides an example of why runners should leave. After leading the country in rushing in 2019, Hubbard returned to school only to play through an injury-riddled season. Now likely a day three pick, Hubbard still stands 6-foot-0, 210 pounds with 4.48 speed.

Originally a three-star recruit from Canada, Hubbard played in the shadow of Justice Hill early in his career. As a sophomore, Hubbard emerged as a legitimate weapon in the offense, when Hill went down with injury. Hubbard finished the 2018 season with 740 yards on 124 carries (6.0 yards per carry), while adding 22 receptions. With Hill entering the 2019 NFL Draft, Hubbard locked down the feature back role in one of the Big 12’s run-heaviest offenses in 2019. Hubbard carried 328 times for 2,094 yards and 21 scores, while adding another 21 receptions. Rather than enter the 2020 NFL Draft, Hubbard decided to return to school, where an ankle injury limited him to 625 yards on 133 carries.

With some of the worst efficiency metrics in the class, Hubbard now looks slated for a day three selection. Hubbard forced 353 yards after contact and 22 forced missed tackles, which both rank near the bottom of this class on a per attempt basis. Despite his plummeting draft stock, Hubbard still possesses decent size and athleticism. With a positive landing spot on day three, Hubbard could provide value to an NFL offense with an injury.

10. Elijah Mitchell – Louisiana-Lafayette

With the last running back spot in the top ten, Mitchell looks worth a late round flier. Mitchell is one of the top athletes in this year’s class. Mitchell ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10, 201 pounds at Louisiana’s pro day. However, Mitchell also checked in at 215 pounds during the senior bowl, giving him elite size-adjusted athleticism and a more durable playing weight.

Mitchell actually played with two other backs who will spend time on NFL rosters in Trey Ragas and Raymond Calais. Always working in a three-way time share, Mitchell put up 985, 1,147 and 878 yards in his three final seasons at school. Also experienced as a pass catcher, Mitchell has 49 career receptions for 595 receiving yards.

From an efficiency perspective, Mitchell created 634 yards after contact and 41 forced missed tackles. Both rank slightly above average for this class, giving him enough intrigue for a day three selection. Like Hubbard, Mitchell is completely landing spot dependent. However, his size and athleticism give him a chance to latch onto an NFL roster and potentially contribute in the event of injury to a starter ahead of him.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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