Awesemo Odds: Vikings vs. Seahawks Breakdown

Vikings – Seahawks Monday Night Football Breakdown

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We have a big game in the NFL tonight with the Vikings traveling up to the northwest to take on the Seahawks in Seattle. Both teams are in the thick of the wildcard race, and this game would go a long way to punching their ticket to the postseason. This article is going to breakdown both teams and discuss what we are seeing from a betting perspective.

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3

Over/Under: 46.5

Moneyline: Vikings +145, Seahawks -175

Quick Trends

The line opened at Seahawks -3.5 and despite taking roughly two-thirds of the tickets the line actually has dropped slightly to Seahawks -3. This isn’t a major shift, but it is around a key number (3) so its something to notice as that half point is very valuable. The O/U hasn’t had any dramatic movements either as a slight uptick as some books have seen the line move to 46.5 while others still sit at 46.

The Seahawks have been hot lately and its translated to a good showing against the spread with a 3-0-1 run over the last 4 games. They also are solid at home ATS with a 3-1-1 mark when playing up in Seattle so far this year.

The Vikings don’t have any spread splits that really stick out so far this year, with their last 6 being an uneventful 3-3 ATS and away games not any clearer with a 2-3-1 mark so far.

Vikings outlook

The Vikings come in 6-5-1 and with the Bears big win last night it looks like the Vikings are going to be fighting for a wildcard spot. Like most teams they’ve preferred being at home this year with a 4-2 / 2-3-1 home/away split so this road game could present some challenges.

The gameplan for the Vikings must be to protect Cousins and not force him to really abandon a balanced offensive attack, which can lead to disaster. Winning the turnover battle on the road tonight is huge for the Vikings and Cousins certainly can be erratic at times with the ball. Its no surprise in games where he has 0 INT’s the Vikings are 4-1 and in games with at least 1 INT the Vikings come in at 2-4-1. These two teams right now are the favorites for the two Wildcard spots and either one will be in the driver seat with a W here. On the defensive side like most teams the Vikings will want to get pressure on Russ and not allow him time to create on the move like he is so used to doing.

Seahawks outlook

It is a little surprising the Seahawks are just 3-2 so far this year at home, which is usually one of the hardest road venues for teams to venture into. However, both losses were to quality teams in the Chargers and Rams and the Seahawks have hit their stride this year. They bombed the Niners 43-16 last week and are really becoming a balanced team on the offensive side of the ball.

The gameplan for the Seahawks will certainly be to establish this running game that they’ve developed this year and not force Russ to drop back and throw a ton of times. Keeping Russ clean and letting him work off play action is the best way to attack this Vikings D and makes the Seahawks offense much more difficult to stop. On defense they certainly want to disrupt Cousins and getting pressure is the best way to do that and potentially force some turnovers. On the injury front Doug Baldwin is currently a GTD so we will have to wait and see if he is active tonight. If not, Wilson will be relying on Lockett and Moore heavily, but honestly, I think it just means more attempts to establish the run and control the clock.

My outlook

A Monday night game in Seattle isn’t the easiest situation for the Vikings, and I think they struggle in this spot. The key in my eyes is if Seattle can establish the run and control the clock it will force the Vikings offense to be a little more predictable and give Seattle real chances to get to Cousins. I think Seattle will be able to dictate the pace at home and it gives them a nice opportunity to solidify their wildcard chances and their postseason plans. Both defenses should be able to limit the big plays and that makes me lean towards the under and the home team in this key NFC battle.

Seahawks -3, Under 46.5

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If you have any questions find me in the soon to launch sports betting channel on the Awesemo.com premium slack chat or @JazzrazDFS on twitter.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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