NFL DFS Picks: Saturday Slate Boom/Bust Leaders I DraftKings + FanDuel

The NFL playoffs are here, and we have a pair of exciting looking three game NFL DFS contests each day this weekend. The Saturday slate is our focus for this column. Check back tomorrow for the Sunday version. I’ll also have optimizer groups posted for each day’s slate of games well ahead of lock, but after we collect any pending news. Wild Card Weekend Saturday should be a blast, with two of the three games likely to stay competitive and the third featuring several interesting NFL DFS picks. Playoff action and three game slates get very tight and one key decision could make all the difference in constructing a GPP winning lineup. To help find the best building blocks, I took a look through our NFL DFS Boom/Bust tool, one of my favorite products on the site for DraftKings NFL and FanDuel NFL contests. Our goal here is to review the tool and identify a few of the less popular options that could be in play.

If you aren’t familiar, the tool utilizes Awesemo’s player projections and standard deviations to calculate the probability of a player hitting a specific “boom” score, which represents a 75th-percentile performance. We can weaponize this data alongside the player’s point projection and ownership projection to help determine which players are over- or under-owned and which players could be valuable pivots in those situations. With just three games on the slate, key decisions like this could prove GPP-winning, although there are limited options.

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NFL DFS Picks: Saturday Slate Boom/Bust Leaders

Quarterback

The quarterback spot does a lot to determine our overall constructions. Given the nature of NFL DFS, we are always looking to pair our chosen quarterback with at least one of his skill players, and frequently with a player from the opposing team as a run-back option. The purpose of this is to capture the direct correlation between a quarterback’s scoring potential and that of his pass catchers. When the quarterback throws a touchdown pass, someone catches it, there are valuable NFL DFS points on both sides of that equation. We take a player from the opposite team following the theory that a blowout in the NFL will eventually turn into a ground-based affair, with the leading team grinding out the game and keeping the clock running rather than taking chances through the air. A competitive game is almost always required for a true ceiling score, which naturally leads us to additional skill player to quarterback correlations. This makes quarterback selection a major inflection point for short-slate NFL contests, as that decision will drive at least four positions on your roster when we account for the unlikely situation of rostering a defense against your quarterback.

For our short Wild Card Weekend Saturday slate, we have just three games and six quarterbacks from which to choose. This is naturally going to push significant ownership shares toward the highest raw projection options on the slate, those who double as the name-brand quarterbacks. Namely, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Josh Allen. On DraftKings, a full 71% of projected ownership at the position is distributed between those three players. On FanDuel, it is over 83%. This immediately means that choosing a different quarterback would be a point of differentiation. Though it is important to consider the overall impact of choosing to stack a less likely team in general, there is a give and take here.

On both sites, the boom score leader is not among that group. Alex Smith has a 5.2% boom probability on DraftKings, 7.6% on FanDuel. Smith has a raw projection that is second lowest of the six options, but it is within 3 points of the overall leader on both sites. With ownership projections under 5% on both sites, it won’t take much to get ahead of the field on Smith, which would allow us to take advantage of significant salary savings. Smith is by far the least expensive quarterback on both sites. It is important to note that Smith is officially questionable, but all signs are pointing toward him playing.

Of the remaining options, Philip Rivers appears to be leading Jared Goff in most categories that we use to determine NFL DFS picks. This includes his raw point projection, his 0.8% boom probability and his ownership. While Goff will be owned slightly less than Rivers on DraftKings and at essentially the same rate on FanDuel, the margin by which the two differ in the other categories make Rivers the much stronger choice. During the regular season, Rivers ranked ranked ninth in the NFL with 7.7 yards per passing attempt, while Goff managed just 7.2, 20th overall. Rivers also threw four more touchdowns and for 257 more yards than Goff through the 2020 season.

All three of the higher-end quarterbacks are very much in play and should be rostered. They will all be heavily owned and come with their own associated decisions among their skill players. In FanDuel NFL contests, the preference by boom score would be Wilson, who also happens to be the lowest owned and least expensive of the three options in this tier. Allen stands alone by ownership on the blue site, where he will be nearly double the next-highest-exposed signal-caller.

On DraftKings, the choice between Wilson and Brady is less stark, with both drawing the same ownership and very similar boom scores. All three options look equal in terms of probability of success as well as their mean projection, though again Allen will be owned at nearly double the rate of every other option at the position.


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Cole Beasley – WR – Buffalo Bills – DraftKings – $5,300 / FanDuel $6,000

Beasley is an always under-appreciated option across NFL DFS. The second banana in the Bills’ passing attack had a strong 2020, putting up 967 yards and four touchdowns, with 11.8 yards per reception and a career-high 76.6% catch rate. Beasley plays the safety net in the Buffalo offense, with an average depth of target of just 7.8, compared to teammate Stefon Diggs 10.2. The role keeps Beasley lower on the board from week to week in standard deep slates, but with limited options on a three-game slate, the wideout is firmly in play on both sites. Despite the official questionable designation, I fully expect Beasley to play and play well on Saturday.

On DraftKings, Beasley ranks fourth among all players with a 15.6% boom probability. That score ranks behind the 22.2% carried by Diggs, his slate-leading teammate. The key differentiator between the two Bills receivers is in ownership. Diggs is the most popular play on the slate at 63.5% ownership, while Beasley is pulling just 8.6% as of Friday afternoon. Diggs is a stellar option and will be in plenty of lineups, but Beasley is not getting nearly the attention he warrants as an alternative in the same offense. With the numbers looking very similar on FanDuel, despite different players in between the two, Beasley looks like just as good a pivot on the blue site. We gain leverage with the play from the notion that every touchdown caught by Beasley is one that was not caught by Diggs. We can also load up on the Bills onslaught and play both, but you will have to create value elsewhere.

Additional (slightly) lower-owned considerations: Cooper Kupp, T.Y. Hilton (FanDuel), Michael Pittman Jr. (DraftKings)

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J.D. McKissic – RB – Washington Football Team – DraftKings – $4,900 / FanDuel – $5,200

McKissic is not a name that would immediately leap to mind for the average NFL DFS player on this slate. After all, McKissic managed just 365 yards and one touchdown on the ground this season, averaging 4.3 yards per rushing attempt. Where McKissic interests me is in the Football Team’s passing attack. The running back saw 110 targets this season, hauling in 80 of them for 589 yards and two touchdowns. As a favorite target of Smith, McKissic appears to be a strong value option who will go overlooked as a sneaky part of Smith-based stacks. While we do not typically look to pair running backs with their quarterback, players like this are an exception. There is more than enough volume to attack.

On DraftKings, McKissic ranks fifth among running backs when sorted by boom score, but his 4.4% probability is not very different from the 6.8% carried by Cam Akers on basically the same point projection and three times as much ownership. The $4,900 salary McKissic carries frees you up to do a lot of building without worrying as much about cost.

In FanDuel NFL contests, McKissic also lands fifth by boom percentage. His 4.1% compares favorably with Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, though Taylor has a significantly higher raw projection. McKissic’s ownership of just 8.3% is more appropriate on FanDuel, where receptions are worth less than on the competing site, but I think the ownership is low enough that we can get beyond it without taking on too much inherent risk. McKissic looks better in DraftKings NFL tournaments, but he still seems like the best sneaky option at the running back position this week. He has a clear-cut role and will be involved, which is more than we can say with certainty about some of the other options.

For the more popular options, I would simply keep an eye on the boom score as it compares to the raw point projection and player ownership. Among those similarly projected players, I’m happy to let leverage dictate my ultimate exposures across a full slate of GPP lineups. If I were covered in gravy dangling above a pit of angry poodles with only my NFL DFS picks to save my life and only total DFS points matters? Give me Ronald Jones off the top of the boom score list on both sites.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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