Cover the Field: NFL DFS WR vs CB Matchups for Divisional Round

Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One of the best ways to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the postseason, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. That gets a bit trickier with the postseason bringing the best on both sides of the field. As such, I am presenting a one top-shelf option, one slightly lower-priced option and one wild card for NFL DFS plays.

Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your Divisional Round fantasy football lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, including D.K. Metcalf and George Kittle.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Tyreek Hill vs. Texans Corners

Houston deserves some credit for their secondary’s performance against Buffalo. Sure, the Bills do not have a rip-roaring passing attack, but they have some receivers capable of game-breaking production. And none of them popped. This week, however, should be a different animal. For one, the Texans do not get Josh Allen, they see perhaps the most explosive passer in the game, Patrick Mahomes. They also see the epitome of taking the top off the defense in Tyreek Hill. Houston has generally been decent defending the deep ball, ranking top-10 in DVOA against deep passing. But with Hill, sometimes the pass does not have to travel far to make for big plays. So instead of vulnerable deep coverage, I am looking more at volume.

Houston’s coverage was strong against Buffalo but their three primary corners — Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves — saw a lot of targets. They combined for 41, allowing 16 receptions and 166 yards with no touchdowns. That volume is a bit extreme, but they did well to prevent a lot of subsequent production. Still, the quantity of opportunity has me a bit giddy to target Chiefs receivers this week. 41 of 48 Buffalo pass attempts, 85.4 percent, had Houston corners in primary coverage. To me, that suggests that the Bills saw the Texans corners as a liability on defense and Andy Reid will likely do the same.

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Hill does not need much to pay off in NFL DFS. He played in only 10 full games this year, yet tied for fifth in deep touchdowns and 10th in deep yards. He was efficient outside of the deep ball as well, recording 2.45 yards per route, fourth-best in the NFL. Hill moves around outside and in, playing almost half his snaps in the slot and adding three touchdowns when lined up inside. That means he will get matchups not only with Conley and Roby — Houston’s “good” corners — but also Hargreaves, their most exploitable one. With the Texans’ high volume coverage and Hill’s slate-breaking ability, he is worth one of the highest NFL DFS prices this weekend.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: D.K. Metcalf vs. Kevin King

Here is what we know for sure about this game: Seattle’s desire to get off the bus running is going to be hampered by their limited running back room. That was evident last week with 39 passing snaps against just 21 running snaps. And though Green Bay was once a run funnel, their front is much improved of late and they are now merely 10th-worst by run DVOA. Green Bay’s offense is also looking smoother of late so one would assume Seattle will have to throw a lot once again.

We also know that D.K. Metcalf is fully capable of dominating a game. He did it last week, albeit against a miserable secondary, to the tune of 160 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. That was his second game of 100 yards with a score this season and his third time in the end zone in the last four weeks. With Tyler Lockett falling off the face of the earth, Metcalf is pretty clearly Seattle’s most consistent receiving threat.

It is also fairly certain that Metcalf will spend most of his time against Kevin King, and may even be shadowed. King plays almost exclusively on the right side when not in shadow coverage, which would place him opposite of Metcalf. He is the far inferior of Green Bay’s two corners compared to Jaire Alexander, but King always covers the bigger receivers when the two are shadowing opponents, so Metcalf should not see much of Alexander.

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It makes sense; King, at 6-foot-3 with 4.4 speed, is one of the few corners in football who physically matches up with Metcalf. However, King has been a mixed bag, ranking dead last for a time in yards per coverage snap. He has improved slightly to 10th-worst and tied for third with five interceptions, but he has still allowed the fifth-most yards in coverage.

King’s quality coverage outings have typically relied on interceptions and pass breakups. When not making a play on the ball, King has been endlessly exploitable. And if there is one thing that defines Russell Wilson, it is the rarity of ill-advised throws. With that in mind, I expect another high-volume, high-efficiency performance from Metcalf. He may not quite be the NFL DFS splash he was last week, but he is still cheaper than Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill, and has the circumstances to offer as high of a ceiling.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings: George Kittle vs. Vikings Linebackers/Safeties

I am cheating this week and doing something I have never done before: picking a tight end for receiver matchups. There a few reasons for this, most obvious being George Kittle is far and away San Francisco’s most reliable pass catcher. But more than that, Minnesota’s corners actually showed well against a great New Orleans passing game. Xavier Rhodes held Michael Thomas to just 20 yards on two catches in his coverage, and were it not for a badly busted coverage on a 50-yard Deonte Harris completion, Rhodes would have had essentially a spotless day. Plus, Rhodes and Trae Waynes played well with no relief as both Mackensie Alexander and Mike Hughes sat out.

That said, Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr combined to allow 40 yards on four catches to Jared Cook. And nothing against Cook, but he is not exactly the dynamic threat Kittle is. So I am playing the trends here; the Vikings corners have been getting the job done recently while the safety and linebacker coverage has slightly slipped. That has arrows pointing directly at Kittle.

Kittle led all players at any position in PFF receiving grade this year while seeing the fourth-most targets and catches and third-most yards among tight ends. He did that on far fewer receiving snaps — 17th among tight ends in routes — and thus was the only tight end in the league with over three yards per route run. All things equal, Kittle was the most efficient pass-catching tight end in the game.

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That is all well and good, but efficiency does not help NFL DFS players nearly as much as volume. There, Kittle can be a little more touch-and-go. He only scored five touchdowns, eclipsed 100 yards three times and had double-digit targets just twice. The 49ers run-heavy gameplan simply did not favor Kittle’s NFL DFS production. That said, when Kittle did run routes, he was productive at a higher rate than anyone. So as long as this game’s script gets him routes, history says he will flourish.

Plus, Minnesota’s safety play may actually help Kittle’s volume. For one, Anthony Harris and Smith back deep will force Jimmy Garoppolo to work underneath more, where Kittle thrives. And — this is going in the way back machine — the last time Mike Zimmer’s defense played an elite tight end in the postseason, it did not go well for Smith. The Eagles specifically targeted Smith in RPOs and it led to Zach Ertz getting 92 yards on eight catches and putting the game away early. Knowing Kyle Shanahan, he has that game film loaded up as we speak.

Granted, Minnesota finished the regular season with the very best DVOA against tight ends this year and San Francisco will almost certainly look to establish the run. But the Vikings gave up a lot to the tight end last week and historically, and have a strong run defense (ninth by DVOA), so I project Kittle will get more work than the regular season would dictate. Plus, the Vikings are dealing with injuries throughout their secondary depth. It is a bit of a gamble at a higher price and ownership, but I think Kittle can payoff in a big way for NFL DFS.