Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One of the best ways to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the season, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your fantasy football lineups, Week 1 on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo and FantasyDraft, including Chris Godwin and Davante Adams.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints — Chris Godwin vs. P.J. Williams
Predicting slot volume in Week 1 can be a fool’s errand, especially when there is a drastically different style of quarterback in town from the prior year. That said, we can feel some level of confidence that Godwin will continue his role as the Buccaneers’ primary slot receiver. Even though in 2018 he split out wide more often, last year Godwin took 55.2% of offensive snaps in the slot, and that was with a deep ball machine in Jameis Winston at quarterback. With more tight end depth and the quick-hitting Tom Brady throwing passes, one would assume the majority of Godwin’s snaps and targets will come from inside.
Which brings us to the matchup. The Saints have one of the better cornerback duos in football with Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. Lattimore shadowed top receivers a good chunk of the time last year, so it is a decent bet he will be glued to Mike Evans on the outside. Jenkins, on the other hand, was a pretty strict outside cover who mostly stuck to his respective side before joining the Saints late in the 2019 season. As such, my guess is that Godwin will avoid coverage from either for the majority of this game.
That would leave him heads up primarily with P.J. Williams when he steps into the slot. Last year, Williams was one of the worst slot covers in football, recording the sixth-worst targeted rating and eighth-most yards in slot coverage. By contrast, teammate Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was in the top third in the league in slot coverage. However, the Saints depth chart lists Williams as third corner and Gardner-Johnson as a safety, so presumably Godwin will see more of Williams. Last year Godwin saw the 13th-most targets, ninth-most receptions, eighth-most yards per route run and second-most yards from the slot. Assuming Brady connects with Godwin like he did with Julian Edelman, this should be a double-digit target week for No. 14.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears — Kenny Golladay vs. Jaylon Johnson (Pivot to Marvin Jones if Golladay Misses)
Rookie corners starting right off the bat are the ultimate wild card. Last year Deandre Baker was one of the worst corners in the NFL despite being the first corner off the board in the 2019 draft, while others like Marshon Lattimore become All-Pros right off the bat. Johnson was the seventh corner taken in this year’s draft, the first taken in the second round and the first of the Bears picks this year. With Chicago losing several corners to injury and free agency, Johnson’s ascent to day 1 starter was inevitable. Unfortunately for him, this will be a baptism by fire against one of the game’s best receiving duos.
Golladay and Marvin Jones split everything almost 50-50 — stats, games where one pops off, even snaps on each side of the field sometimes. As a result, it can be difficult to project who to take on a given week. All things being equal, my tendency is to lean matchup where I can, and the Bears corners are some of the most stationary in terms of where they line up. Last year, Kyle Fuller only took one snap out wide to his right. He was equally left-side exclusive in 2018. So Johnson will likely take the majority of snaps on the right, which would put him opposite Golladay on average 51.2% of the time and Jones 26.8%.
Early in the season, with so little sample to go from (plus the added element of no preseason to aid our projections), targeting rookies against top-end receivers is a safe strategy, and Golladay against Johnson certainly applies. The reunion with Matthew Stafford only helps Golladay’s floor and deep-ball upside.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings — Any of Packers’ Top Three vs. Vikings Corners
This is the trial week for my theory that the Vikings secondary will be mighty exploitable this season. Minnesota, who has drafted far too many cornerbacks the last decade to be in such a flimsy situation, lost all three of their starting cornerbacks this offseason. Granted, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes were not good, but they were entrenched starters for a long time, and Minnesota is essentially starting over now at the position. At this time, rookies Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler are likely to get a lot of playing time, while the top of the depth chart is held by Mike Hughes and Holton Hill. Though from opposite ends of the draft spectrum (Hughes a 2018 first-rounder, Hill undrafted the same year), those two have been spot starters with mixed results in their two seasons to date.
All this is to say Minnesota is going to be testing out a lot of personnel at corner. Fortunately for them, they have maybe the best safety duo in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, but any one-on-one matchup outside may be ripe for the picking. Between Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard and, of course, Davante Adams, there will be enough movement for each to get their cracks against exploitable matchups. Of the three, I probably would be lowest on Lazard since he takes more slot snaps, and that could mean more matchups with Smith or Harris and fewer one-on-ones. Valdes-Scantling is a steep discount with solid value, while Adams appears to be worth his heavy price (fourth highest among receivers on DraftKings) given the situation with Minnesota.
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