Cover the Field: NFL DFS WR-CB Matchups for Week 15

Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS, due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One of the best ways to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the season, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your fantasy football lines, Week 15 on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, including Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen.


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New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts: Michael Thomas vs. Colts Corners

Again, I try to avoid the obvious unless it is an especially exploitable situation. Michael Thomas is matchup-proof, so the opponent usually does not matter much when evaluating his NFL DFS status. But the Colts are dealing with injuries in their secondary and just surrendered season-high passing yards to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers. Five different Bucs receivers recorded at least 50 yards last week. And Pierre Desir, who has occasionally shadowed top receivers, is one of the lowest graded corners by PFF this season, allowing the 11th-highest passer rating and the eighth-highest yards per coverage snap. Because of his struggles, I do not believe the Colts will shadow with him this week, putting the onus equally on rookie Rock Ya-Sin and the rest of the Colts’ banged-up secondary. Against the best receiver in football, that could be a mighty tough task.

Thomas does not need a lot of analysis. His numbers, both advanced and traditional, point to this being one of the best receiver seasons ever. He is still on pace for the most receptions and the sixth-most yards in history, and the only real blemish on the year is his six drops, tied for seventh-most. Still, because of the volume, his drop rate is fairly low, 31st lowest among 102 qualified receivers. Thomas has seven games with at least 10 catches, 10 with double-digit-targets and eight with at least 100 yards. He is one of the great stone cold receiver locks in NFL DFS history.

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A Michael Thomas ceiling game is not that far removed from his average, so the matchup with the Colts will not necessarily boost his stock through the roof this week. Rather, it more ensures that he will maintain his sky high baseline performance. For this matchup, I am especially interested in how he performs out of the slot. While only taking about a quarter of his snaps there, Thomas has arguably been the best slot receiver in the league. He leads in yards per slot route and is top-20 in both slot targets and receptions, despite ranking 43rd in slot snaps.

The Colts best corner this year, Kenny Moore, typically covers the slot, but missed last week with an ankle injury. If he misses again, or plays hobbled, Thomas’ slot performance could take a starring role. But no matter who he lines up against for the bulk of this matchup, Thomas should be in line for his regular 10 catches and 100-plus yards and for paying off his steep NFL DFS price.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Keenan Allen vs. Vikings Corners

From 2013 to 2018, the Vikings thrice drafted corners in the first round and once took one in the second. Fans chuckled at Mike Zimmer’s obsession with loading up at the position while leaving other positions relatively dry. Well, here we are in 2019. The Vikings have four corners playing regular snaps and all of them have been somewhere on the spectrum of mediocre to atrocious. By DVOA, the Vikings are doing fairly well, ranking 11th overall and 14th against the pass. In fact, PFF gives them the seventh-best coverage grade in the league. However, much of that “success” comes from outstanding play from their safeties, generally sound linebacker coverage and two elite pass rushers on the edge.

The corners have been by far the biggest liability on an otherwise Super Bowl defense. Mackensie Alexander is the only corner with a PFF coverage grade over 60 and a targeted rating below 100, but he also has four games with at lest four catches allowed. So even their most reliable corner has been shaky at times, and as a slot corner, he does not defend top receivers as often as others. The guys doing that are Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, who are seventh and third, respectively among corners in receptions allowed, eighth and ninth in yards allowed and second and 28th in targeted rating.

Waynes has been targeted a lot more, but Rhodes is surrendering 84.1 percent completion to Waynes’ 72.2, so in general, he has been more exploitable when the ball is thrown his way. As such, like with the Colts, Minnesota’s entire cornerback room looks exploitable this week.

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Keenan Allen is the most obvious choice to benefit as he moves all over the field and remains the Chargers’ most-targeted receiver. His season has been strange; he started as the top player at his position, then hit a long snag as the Chargers’ season derailed. Now, he has at least five catches in five of the last six, including two double-digit-target games, but he has not cracked 100 yards since week 3. However, with last week’s drubbing of the Jaguars, there seems to be a bit of momentum for the Los Angeles passing game. And Allen has four corner matchups he should be able to exploit, and finally break through the NFL DFS ceiling he has not reached in months.

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles Corners

Terry McLaurin has not quite been at the elite level with which he began his rookie season and he now ranks third among rookie receivers in receptions and yards. Much of that slippage falls on the arm of Dwayne Haskins. McLaurin’s college teammate has struggled with accuracy, and those struggles have effectively neutralized McLaurin’s deep speed. Through the first seven weeks, McLaurin saw 13 deep targets, eight of which were catchable, and he caught seven for four touchdowns. Since Haskins fully took on the starting role, only four of 10 deep targets have been catchable, and McLaurin caught three with no touchdowns.

With Haskins under center, McLaurin’s high yardage mark is just 72, and his best fantasy output was his most recent one: four catches, 57 yards and a touchdown. That was McLaurin’s first touchdown since week six; he had five in his first six games. So why am I picking McLaurin this week? Two reasons: for one, his talent is still undeniable as he has been open a lot—Hasksins is just missing him. But more importantly, the matchup is right for a McLaurin reemergence.

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The Eagles secondary is bad, specifically at corner. All five of their regular corners have allowed more than 1.3 yards per coverage snap—including Ronald Darby 2.04, third worst in the league—and all but one rank within the worst 25 percent for snaps per target. In other words, there is no single weak link in this secondary. Whoever the Eagles throw out there, opposing teams have targeted everyone, and had success doing it. So for all of Haskins’ struggles and resulting McLaurin frustration, there should be a lot of space for the rookie this week. If Haskins can simply find a modicum of accuracy, McLaurin could pop again for NFL DFS players like he did with Case Keenum.

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals: Jarvis Landry vs. Cardinals Corners

Odell Beckham is probably going to hit 1,000 yards this year, but on the whole, it seems he and Baker Mayfield simply do not mesh. For whatever reason, Mayfield’s throwing style does not work for Beckham, as he has struggled to make catches on hard-thrown balls. Jarvis Landry, on the other hand, has caught a higher percentage of targets, has more catches, yards and touchdowns and has a higher targeted rating. In fact, Landry is on pace for a career high in yards per reception and his second-best yardage per route run. So Landry seems to be doing OK with Mayfield.

As a result, though Beckham is the bigger name and likely will see more action against embattled veteran Patrick Peterson, Landry is going to be the focus here. And has been the theme of this column, Landry will have his pick of the litter with regard to exposable matchups.

The Cardinals now rank dead last by PFF coverage grade, a title that has flipped between the Giants and Dolphins most of the season. A big part of that has been the steep decline of the aforementioned Peterson. Once the top corner in the game, Peterson is allowing just shy of 80 percent completion, 1.51 yards per coverage snap and a 128.6 passer rating. Those last two numbers rank 19th-worst and fifth-worst among qualified cornerbacks, a far cry from his peak.

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But Landry moves around a bit, playing more than half of his snaps out of the slot this season, and there is a chance Peterson shadows Beckham. So how about the Cardinals’ other corners?

Well, Landry’s most common matchup will likely be rookie Byron Murphy. Murphy has stepped into the slot with the release of Tramaine Brock, and is seeing targets every 5.4 slot snaps, the 10th-highest rate in the league, and allowing the 12th-highest yards per slot snap. Despite being the second corner off the board this year, PFF has Murphy seventh in coverage grade among nine starting rookie corners. Landry’s other potential matchup is Kevin Peterson, who has the highest coverage grade of the three Arizona corners. However, he has only recently taken on a full-time starting role, minus a few games when Patrick Peterson was suspended. And he is still allowing a high 1.44 yards per coverage snap and 71 percent completion, so even in a smaller sample size, KKevin Peterson does not look great.

All in all, Landry is ripe for an NFL DFS ceiling game this week. The Cardinals’ pass rush is good, so perhaps Mayfield will get jumpy in the pocket and limit Landry’s upside, but if he stays composed, he should be able to work the ball to Landry all game. Landry had double-digit targets in two of the last three, and I would expect that to happen again. Despite his team’s real-world struggles and disfunction, Landry poses an excellent NFL DFS play this week.

Author
Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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