Cover the Field: NFL DFS WR vs CB Matchups for Week 16

Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS, due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One of the best ways to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the season, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your fantasy football lines, Week 16 on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, including Amari Cooper and Tyler Boyd.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Amari Cooper vs. Eagles Corners

Both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup underperformed in Dallas’ blowout win last week, as the Cowboys got up early and subsequently committed to the run. But Cooper has already hit the 1,000-yard mark and Gallup is on pace to do the same, so the minor blip in their seasons is probably not worth too much thought. Both are plenty capable of strong ceiling games, especially in prime matchups like they get this week.

For this column’s purposes, I am focusing on Cooper. He went for over 100 yards the last time Dallas and Philadelphia met, and he has eight touchdowns this year to Gallup’s three, and the Eagles have allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns this year. Plus, the Eagles allow a DVOA boost to top receivers 10 points higher than what they provide to number twos. It may be splitting hairs, but generally speaking, Cooper stands to benefit more in this spot.

Looking for more NFL DFS tools and Premium articles? Sign up HERE to join Awesemo+!

The matchup is the real star here. Philadelphia’s secondary just gave Dwayne Haskins his first strong NFL game and allowed Terry McLaurin to put up 130 and a touchdown on just five catches. And this was not a one man issue—each of McLaurin’s five catches came against a different defender. The Eagles do not shadow and every single starting corner has allowed over 1.3 yards per coverage snap. Jalen Mills has the position’s highest grade for the Eagles at 58.9, but he also has allowed a passer rating of 110.7 and four touchdowns, one of which came on a 75-yard bomb on Sunday. As an overall group, the Eagles’ cornerbacks may be the most exploitable in the NFL.

This year following Cooper’s floor games (two with fewer than 10 yards entering week 15), he has bounced back with at least an average fantasy output (five for 106, eight for 85). That pattern coalesced with Philadelphia’s abysmal secondary makes Cooper an easy NFL DFS play this week.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Lockett vs. Byron Murphy

It was a nice bounce back for Tyler Lockett, hauling in eight passes for 120 and a touchdown against Carolina. That came on the heels of four straight sub-50-yard games and a sizable down-tick in targets, so we needed the positive regression from Lockett as he heads towards a favorable matchup this week. Rookie Byron Murphy was having a solid first season early on playing primarily outside. However, with the release of Tramaine Brock, Murphy stepped into the slot and it has not gone well. In three games as nickel corner, Murphy was targeted 22 times, allowing 19 catches, 151 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Arizona’s overall coverage now ranks last, according to PFF.

The last time Seattle played Arizona, Lockett caught four passes for 51 yards, but saw coverage from a number of different people. Perhaps, the Cardinals employ a similar strategy, but Murphy played over 50 slot snaps in two of the last three games. Chances are good he will line up across from Lockett a lot.

Lockett’s slot target volume took a big of a hit from his slump, but he still ranks fourth in the league in slot receptions and third in slot touchdowns. He also brought in his first deep reception since week 12, so he could be working his way back into Seattle’s downfield game. Through 12 weeks, Lockett averaged nearly one deep reception a game which resulted in three touchdowns and over 300 yards. And Murphy is allowing just shy of 10 yards per reception as a slot cover so downfield passing is certainly in play. Because of that, look for Wilson to push the ball Lockett’s way more often this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: Tyler Boyd vs. Dolphins Corners

This has been a dangerous play for me. Tyler Boyd, perhaps more than any other projected 1,000-yard receiver, has massive goose egg potential every week. Four times he has put up fewer than 40 yards without a touchdown, including a one-target, zero-yard game and another with 10 yards on seven targets. However, he has given NFL DFS players just enough to make us think he can exploit a good matchup. Three weeks ago, he went for over 100 yards and a touchdown against a good Steelers team. Well, this week he has one of the best matchups a receiver can hope for with Miami’s league-worst pass DVOA.

Prior to week 15, Boyd had almost always played more in the slot than outside. Against New England, however, the Bengals chose to put their top receiver outside against the best corner in football in Stephon Gilmore. In kind, Boyd caught only three balls on six targets for 26 yards. Now, Miami does not have a Gilmore on their team, so if the Bengals wanted to keep Boyd out wide, he would have favorable matchups. However, since Jomal Wiltz has been one of the worst slot covers in the league this year (bottom-10 in rating, touchdowns and yards per coverage snap allowed defending the slot), it could behoove Cincinnati to move Boyd around more.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com!

There is not a whole lot else to say about this matchup. It is perfect for any receiver, but Boyd is volatile with double-digit targets in six of 14 games but plenty of mediocre performances against bad secondaries. That said, Andy Dalton has dropped back a ton this season (44 times per game) and his pass protection has improved a bit with the return of Cordy Glenn. In theory, that added time against a bad pass rush plus Boyd’s advantageous matchup will finally allow him some payoff as an NFL DFS target.

Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions: Courtland Sutton vs Darius Slay

No one—not even Darius Slay—has covered well for the Lions this year. All three starting corners have allowed at least 1.3 yards per coverage snap and Slay is the only one with a targeted rating under 100, thanks to his two interceptions and low 56.7 completion allowed. Those number suggest that Slay’s ball skills are still strong, but his overall coverage is slipping. Do not let his recent Pro Bowl selection fool you; his 59.6 PFF coverage grade is his lowest since his rookie year. Still, Slay is one of the most frequently shadowing corners in the league, doing so in seven games this year, and five times going against a true top receiver. In those games, Slay has been decent with 21 catches allowed on 41 targets for 289 yards (7.05 yards per target) and just one touchdown.

So in essence, Slay has allowed solid performances, but not necessarily ceiling ones to his shadow assignments this year. In a way, that almost works further in the favor of Courtland Sutton, who has defined consistency and strong floors this year. Only once has Sutton been targeted fewer than six times this year and never more than nine times, and he has only two games with fewer than four catches. Averaging 72.8 yards a game with only two 100-yard outings indicates Sutton has virtually no volatility to his game either way. He consistently provides a solid NFL DFS baseline and his NFL DFS pops come from touchdowns—two multi-score games in 2019.

Check out more NFL DFS content from Sam Smith and other Awesemo experts at our NFL Page!

Sutton’s matchup with Slay, a likely shadow situation given Denver’s dearth of receivers, works well into Sutton’s production history. Slay allows high floor games, Sutton produces the same way. It’s a match made in heaven if looking for safe plays that will not break the bank.

One caveat here: this past week, Tampa entered with one clear number on in Chris Godwin. However, Slay did not shadow Godwin or Breshad Perriman. As a result, those two combined for 234 yards on 10 catches and Perriman found the end zone three times. If Slay does not shadow Sutton, Sutton’s ceiling potential skyrockets as everyone not named Slay in Detroit’s secondary has been a disaster of late. While Drew Lock does not push the ball like Jameis Winston, he has targeted Sutton 21 times in three games and found him for two touchdowns in his week 13 debut. Lock has shown enough to think Sutton can strike it big if Slay stays to one side of the field.

So with Sutton, you can prepare for either an average but still strong showing against Slay or big upside against the rest of Detroit’s secondary. Either way, he is solid on the week 16 NFL DFS slate.

Author
Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.