Receiver plays are a week-to-week thought process in NFL DFS due to a variety of outside factors impacting receiver performance. One of the best ways to predict who will break out is by examining their secondary opponents for that individual game. Every week of the postseason, Sam Smith will take a look at advantageous matchups for receivers against vulnerable secondaries, whether it be schematic advantage or merely a weaker cornerback head up on a star receiver. That gets a bit trickier with the postseason bringing the best on both sides of the field, but there are still plenty of matchups to exploit for studs and fliers alike.
Let’s get into some NFL Matchups and give out some NFL DFS picks for your Wild Card Round fantasy football lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, including Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Nolan Kelly and Ben Rasa.
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Thomas vs. Vikings Corners
My choice to refrain from superstars is going out the window with the playoffs. Michael Thomas is great, the Vikings corners are bad, simple as that. There is not a ton more analysis necessary for Thomas; he set the catch record this year after all while also leading the league in targets and yards by a wide margin. But even beyond the volume, Thomas was remarkably efficient with 2.88 yards per route run, again leading the league. Receiver seasons do not get much better than Thomas’.
The Vikings corners need a bit more consideration. Specifically, Xavier Rhodes‘ plummet into the depths of misery boggles the mind and makes for great NFL DFS exploitation. I have covered Rhodes a lot, but the gist of his season was a ton of yards and catches despite a relatively low number of targets. For whatever reason, his ball skills have dissipated, and in kind, he allowed the seventh-most catches in football this year. Thomas plays a bit more on Rhodes’ side of the field so this is a battle the Saints will presumably hammer.
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But even if and when Thomas moves around, the Vikings will have issues. Thomas played about a quarter of his snaps in the slot this year and slot corner Mackensie Alexander has not practiced yet this week. That means more slot snaps for Mike Hughes, who has done OK in slot coverage in a small sample, but has struggled covering elsewhere. Thomas’ matchup on the other side will be Trae Waynes, who has also struggled mightily and allowed more targets and receptions than Rhodes did, albeit with fewer yards.
Note: Mackensie Alexander has been ruled out and Mike Hughes has been placed on IR. Jayron Kearse will likely fill in at nickel corner for the Vikings the majority of the time.
The Vikings saving grace is their safety tandem, Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith. Both were excellent in coverage this year and may limit what Thomas can do down the field. However, Thomas has worked the short to intermediate routes better than anyone this year. As such, the corner dearth in Minnesota has me hammering Thomas in NFL DFS this week, despite his astronomical price.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: Cole Beasley vs. Vernon Hargreaves
Vernon Hargreaves has featured in this column quite a bit this year. He has been a bust no matter where he has played historically, but the switch inside to the slot has not helped his career. His 1.67 yards per slot coverage snap were eighth-worst in the league and he finished bottom-15 among 53 qualified corners in yards, targets, receptions and touchdowns allowed as a slot cover.
Bradley Roby started the year as Houston’s primary slot corner and was their best cover by a significant margin in that role. However, he missed six weeks due to injury and in that time, Houston acquired Hargreaves and put him in the slot. Now Roby is starting outside and likely to get his shots against Buffalo’s top receiver John Brown, who plays slightly more than half his snaps wide to Roby’s side (assuming Roby plays, as he is currently questionable).
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While Brown’s performance this year makes his matchup against Roby and other Houston corners enticing, they are currently top-10 in DVOA against deep balls to any direction. Brown got his all over the field, but he was also top-15 in deep targets, receptions and touchdowns, so that is an aspect of his game that could be mildly hampered. As such, I am leaning more towards Cole Beasley this week.
Beasley’s 72 slot targets rank ninth among 77 qualified receivers and he is 12th in receptions, 16th in yards and 13th in touchdowns from the slot. For this week where he figures to benefit more in quick-hitters, Beasley is probably better suited for DraftKings as a full-PPR. He saw targets consistently—eight games with at least seven—but the yardage has not always joined the volume. Still, Beasley has a great matchup with Hargreaves and a proven track record of production. On full-PPR NFL DFS sites, he is a solid lower-priced option.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: Stefon Diggs vs. Marshon Lattimore
The methodical return of Adam Thielen to full speed has me thinking that Marshon Lattimore is going to shadow Stefon Diggs. Lattimore is one of the most oft-used and effective shutdown corners in the league. In eight shadow games, he has averaged 1.9 completions allowed on 3.9 targets (48 percent) for 24.1 yards. Overall, he has been targeted a lot but has allowed only 1.13 yards per coverage snap and a rating of 85.8.
So if Lattimore is good, why am I focusing on Diggs?
The biggest reason is Diggs’ style only requires two or three throws to make him worthwhile. He has been one of, if not the best deep ball receiver in the NFL this year, ranking behind only Michael Thomas in yards per route run, but with just over half the targets. He also led the league in deep ball yards, receptions and touchdowns. Perhaps most extraordinarily, Diggs set a career high in receiving yards this year despite seeing 55 fewer targets and 39 fewer receptions from last year. What is more is the Saints’ deep defense has been fairly lax this year, ranking near the bottom in deep ball DVOA.
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Perhaps it is fool’s gold to depend on deep passing when making NFL DFS picks, but Diggs has been as reliable in that category as a receiver can be. His ceiling games are arguably the pinnacle of the position, and again, it does not take many throws to get him there. In this matchup with modest pricing and ownership, he makes for a potential GPP splash.
