Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups + Best NFL Player Props Picks

The Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season. The column will break down key matchups for the most important players each week to provide tips for NFL DFS, player prop bettors and season-long fantasy football setting lineups on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper and CBS. Let us dive into the all the NFL DFS tips matchups and daily fantasy football lineup decisions.

Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups & Player Props

Quarterback: Dak Prescott

The Cowboys face the Chiefs in one of the highest Vegas-total games of the entire season. Both squads are coming off impressive blowout wins in get-right spots and are part of the only matchup of the week featuring two top-10 offenses in EPA per play. Prescott was masterful a week ago, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and throwing for 296 yards and three touchdowns. He is now second in true completion percentage (which eliminated throwaways and drops) and is leading the league in adjusted yards per attempt. But even against the Chiefs defense, which prior to their 41-14 beatdown of the Raiders ranked last in yards allowed per pass attempt, Prescott’s prop line for touchdowns is 2.5, which is too high. It is fine to play Prescott in DFS hoping the game reaches a ceiling outcome, and Prescott is still an outside threat to add yards with his legs. Under 2.5 touchdowns passing is the way to go.

Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo had a positive game script all last week but still managed 9.6 yards per attempt on just 19 passes in a surprise blowout of the Rams. And while it helps that his receivers have averaged a league-best 4.3 yards after catch per target, Garoppolo ranks top 10 in catchable pass rate and adjusted yards per attempt. Next up on the docket are the Jaguars, who fell back down to earth defensively after a shocking 9-6 victory over the Bills in Week 9. Still ranking sixth worst in yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play, Jacksonville’s defense should be easy for Garoppolo and the improved 49ers offense to overcome. With incredibly modest prop lines in such a good matchup, making over bet on 245.5 yards passing for Garoppolo is one of the easiest bets.

Alex Hunter has a great correlation play with Garoppolo, and explains why Deebo Samuel is popping as one of the best plays on the slate in his Week 11 NFL DFS Optimal Lineup article.

Running Back: Joe Mixon

Mixon is in one of the most productive stretches of his career, earning over 18 opportunities in three of his last four games and scoring 25 or more PPR points in each of those three. He is top 12 at his position in route participation route, has seen the seventh-largest opportunity share of any back this season. Mixon continues to make defenders miss at a steady clip, ranking top 24 among all backs in evaded tackles per touch and in runs of 10 yards or more. This week Mixon and the Bengals face the Raiders, who rank just 16th in PFF’s run defense grade and ninth in yards allowed per carry. Mixon should not have much issue finding holes in a Las Vegas defensive line that is built primarily to rush the quarterback. In a game with a relatively high Vegas total, coming in just under 50 points, bet the over on Mixon’s rushing line of 64.5 yards, a number he has topped five times already this season. The Player Props tool indicates Mixon hits that mark over 60% of the time in simulations.

Running Back: David Montgomery

Montgomery looked excellent in his return from a knee injury in Week 9, earning 15 targets and averaging over 5.3 yards per touch while playing on a season-high 84.5% of snaps. That is a strong indication that Montgomery is going to carry the backfield workload for Chicago in every game in which he is healthy enough to do so. Though Baltimore’s defense has a reputation for being elite, they have been quite erratic this season, ranking bottom 10 in points allowed per play and bottom five in that metric over the last three weeks. The Bears offensive line has continued to improve this season, as they now rank fourth in run blocking efficiency. Averaging nearly 15 yards more per game on the ground than his line of 60.5 yards, this looks like an easy over bet, and the Player Props tool agrees. Montgomery has a 62% chance of reaching 61 or more yards rushing.

Wide Receiver: DeVonta Smith

Smith has had two straight dominant weeks, scoring exactly 22.6 PPR points in Weeks 9 and 10 on just 12 total targets. Smith continues to be the most heavily targeted player on the Eagles, and with Dallas Goedert sidelined in the concussion protocol, Smith will be the no-doubt top option when the Eagles face the Saints this weekend. Even on the Eagles’ run-first offense, Smith has managed to earn the seventh-most air yards on just the 25th-highest target total. While that means he is a big-play threat in waiting, it also means there will be more volatility in his production. He is likely to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, who held A.J. Brown to just four targets. Smith looks to be climbing an uphill battle to reach his receiving prop line of 60.5 yards despite hitting that number three times in the last five weeks. In 59% of simulations, Smith comes up short of that mark.

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Wide Receiver: Ja’Marr Chase

Chase has not been as productive over his last two games, earning just 81 total yards receiving in the Bengals’ last two games prior to their Week 10 bye. Still, Chase has continued to see primary receiver targets in nearly every game this season and has boosted his average targets per game to 9.5 over the past five weeks. Despite getting walloped by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last weekend, the Raiders defense has been effective at times this season, and PFF still rates their pass rush as one of the best. That could complicate Joe Burrow’s plans to get Chase the ball in deep passing situations. Though the Raiders rank just league average in points allowed per play, they are quietly sixth best in yards allowed per pass attempt. Simulations indicate that it is a true toss-up whether Chase will hit his receiving prop line of 74.5 yards, most of the time he gets there by being highly efficient and not by racking up a huge number of catches. Betting under 5.5 catches for Chase seems like the way to go.

Tight End: Darren Waller

Waller saw exactly seven targets for the fourth time in eight games this season, catching just four passes for a season-low 24 yards in the Raiders loss to the Chiefs last weekend. While many were excited to see Waller command 11 targets in Week 9, it was disheartening to see the opportunities shrink back down, even in a negative game script. Waller is still in the midst of a solid season relative to the rest of his position, earning the second-most targets and third-most air yards of all tight ends. But that still has not resulted in consistent production, and that volatility may continue this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati has improved across the board defensively this season, ranking in the top 15 in both yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play. Compared to the prop lines, the Awesemo projections are quite bearish on Waller in this spot, and the unders on both 6.5 receptions and 71.5 yards for Waller are the way to go.

With Chase and Waller projecting nicely, Geoff Ulrich explains why he loves the Bengals (and Waller as a bring-back) as the top overall stack in his Week 11 From The Slot NFL DFS Picks article.

Tight End: Tyler Conklin

A DFS-darling from a week ago, Conklin caught two touchdowns in Minnesota’s victory over the Chargers. He has now caught three or more passes in four straight games and seen at least five looks in all but one game since Week 3. For fantasy football purposes, this is rather exciting. The tight end landscape is a dumpster fire, and there are very few consistent options at the position beyond the top players. But when it comes to projections, the Vegas lines appear to be too far ahead on a Conklin breakout this week, even in a high-total matchup at home against the Packers. The Packers have improved significantly in the secondary over recent weeks, even without star cornerback Jaire Alexander. They now rank fifth in PFF coverage grade. They are third in yards allowed per pass attempt, and while much of the defensive attention will go to star receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, Conklin’s receptions prop of 3.5 still seems much too high. The Player Props tool projects a 69% chance Conklin will fall short of that mark.

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].