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Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups + Best NFL Player Props Picks

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NFL Daily fantasy football DFS player prop betting picks best bets DraftKings FanDUel yahoo espn cbs DeAndre hopkins odds lines predictions parlays rankings projections optimal lineup optimizer ownership 2021

The Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season. The column will break down key matchups for the most important players each week to provide tips for NFL DFS, player prop bettors and season-long fantasy football setting lineups on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper and CBS. Let’s dive into the all the NFL DFS tips matchups and fantasy football lineup decisions.

Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups & Player Props

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford vs. New York Giants

The Rams’ offense has reached a whole new level this season, with quarterback Stafford currently ranked in the top five at his position in yards passing, touchdowns passing, and adjusted yards per attempt. He has had two-plus touchdowns passing or 350 yards passing in every game this season, and now he is facing a Giants secondary that ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt and points allowed per play. Even if the New York defensive line can generate pressure, Stafford has been excellent when under duress, ranking number one in the NFL in pressured completion percentage. The Awesemo props tool suggests Stafford has a 73% chance of going over his yards passing prop line of 283.5.

Dak Prescott vs. New England Patriots

Not enough has been said about Prescott’s stellar level of play in 2021. Prescott’s 69% completion percentage in Week 6 was his least accurate day of the season, and he still ranks top five in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, and second in true completion percentage. Despite the Cowboys ranking 25th in the NFL in pass plays per game, Prescott still ranks top 10 in air yards and yards passing. And now they face a New England defense that gave up multiple long scores to Chris Conley. New England’s 15th-best yards allowed per pass attempt is not enough to adjust projections for Prescott. He is projected for slightly more than his line of 274.5 yards.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Chargers’ primary back has been stellar this season, scoring 22-plus fantasy points in four straight contests. For DFS players, he is essentially the only one of the premium-salary running backs without any type of injury status, and he is benefiting greatly from new coordinator Joe Lombardi’s improved offensive scheme. Despite the minimal snap share Ekeler still ranks top six among running backs in route participation rate, slot snaps, yards receiving, and in red zone touches, and he has turned that valuable workload into scores seven times already this season, best in the NFL. Now he faces a Baltimore defense on short rest who has been quite average, ranking 17th in points allowed per play, and have given up more production to running backs than to opposing receiving corps. This sets up to be a huge day for Ekeler through the air, but he is being underrated as a rusher, as the props tool suggests Ekeler has an 86% probability of going over 56.5 yards, his current prop line.

 
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Jonathan Taylor vs. Houston Texans

Good things tend to happen when betting on top running backs on teams favored by 10-plus points at home, and that is exactly the situation Taylor finds himself in this weekend. Though playing on short rest, Taylor is lined up for a huge game against Houston’s bottom-10 rush defense. The Texans rank 24th in points allowed per play, indicating that Taylor and the rest of the Colts’ offense could see plenty of red zone trips in Week 6. While Taylor has yet to play on more than 53% of the team’s snaps, he still ranks top 20 at his position in targets, top 10 in rushes, and number one in the NFL in red zone touches. An absolute athletic freak, Taylor showed off his burst at the second level on a 70-plus yard catch and run against the Ravens, and he could easily follow Week 5’s strong outing with an even stronger day this week, and while he’s a strong play in DFS, particularly cash games, he will have to be efficient in order to hit his yards rushing prop of 86.5 yards. Awesemo’s projections only have that occurring 32% of the time.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase (and Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd) vs. Detroit Lions

The addition of Chase has completely transformed the Cincinnati Bengals offense, turning the pass happy Bengals of 2020 into a balanced, significantly more efficient offensive unit. Chase has been nothing short of spectacular to begin his career and is currently scoring a touchdown once every five targets. He has commanded over 50% of the team’s air yards, leaving the other receivers, Higgins and Boyd – both talented in their own right – with limited opportunities downfield. Higgins has been in and out of the lineup and is the best red zone weapon of the Bengals’ big three receivers, and with Higgins and Chase on the outside, Boyd has been able to move into the slot, a more natural position for him. Boyd has a chance to thrive on Sunday, especially over the middle. While Chase is the player, Boyd’s reception prop line of 4.5 is the best play. Boyd has a 70% chance of catching five-plus passes.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Cleveland Browns

The Cardinals are the last unbeaten team in the NFL, and they have done without needing many monster performances from their Hopkins. Hopkins’ usage numbers are down drastically from a season ago, when he ranked second in the NFL in target share. This year he is outside the top 30 wideouts in that metric. And while his targets inside the 20 remain high, Hopkins’ overall expected fantasy points have taken a huge dip over the season’s first five weeks. Despite playing a Browns’ defense that gave up 47 points, including multiple deep touchdowns passing, Hopkins is no longer an every-week monster producer.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Andrews had quite the breakout performance in Week 5, catching 11 passes on a whopping 13 targets, and turning it into 147 yards receiving, two touchdowns and 41.7 fantasy points, the highest score by any tight end in any game this season. Andrews is certainly a top-tier talent and playing in game environment where plenty of points could be scored by both offenses, raising his potential for another blowup performance, but prior to Week 5, Andrews had yet catch more than five passes in a game this season, and with Reshod Bateman entering the lineup, and Jackson playing so effectively, expect the Ravens to continue to spread the ball around in the passing game. The Ravens still ranks as the most run-heavy team in the league, based on game script-adjusted rush rate. He is still a solid value play in DFS, particularly on FanDuel.

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Hunter Henry vs. Dallas Cowboys

Surprise, surprise. A tight end who ranked top 10 among tight ends in fantasy points per game in 2019 and 2020 is ranked, top 10 among tight ends in fantasy points per game. Henry’s snap share has dwindled a bit in recent weeks, but his opportunity has remained steady, earning five-plus targets in three straight contests, and seeing a season-high 81 air yards in Week 5. Still, Henry plays on the Patriots’ low-volume, slow-paced offense that sees the red zone at a below-average rate, though that may change if the Cowboys offense forces quarterback Mac Jones into catchup mode. Even with the possibility of extra passing due to their opponent’s offensive prowess, Henry is not a player on betting on to produce for a third straight game. The Awesemo props tool is showing a 60% probability that Henry catches three or fewer passes this Sunday.


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Take a look at our NFL depth charts, inactive player list and NFL line-ups. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. We also have DraftKings showdown projections and DraftKings showdown ownership projections. View our FanDuel NFL DFS rankings and our DraftKings NFL ownership rankings.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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