The Browns and Steelers have both gotten off to blisteringly hot starts and now meet for the first time since the infamous “helmet swinging” incident of 2019. With first place on the line, which team will emerge victoriously? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Browns – Steelers NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy lineups.
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The Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for NFL DFS
Cleveland Browns (23.25) at Pittsburgh Steelers (27.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Cleveland Passing Game
The Browns have won two straight contests, but it hasn’t necessarily been because of a massive increase in passing production over the last few weeks. Baker Mayfield is playing relatively efficient football, throwing six touchdowns compared to just two interceptions in the last three games, but he hasn’t topped 247 pass yards this entire season. He also hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns, which has led to a wholly unspectacular start to the 2020 fantasy season. Mayfield hasn’t finished higher than 13th in fantasy points in any week this season. Mayfield also took a hit to the ribs in week 5 that the team has admitted is still bothering Mayfield. It shouldn’t necessarily limit the quarterback’s availability, but it could possibly affect Mayfield’s decision making, particularly when escaping the pocket.
And he’ll likely be forced to do just that against Pittsburgh this weekend. The Steelers tout three different interior lineman (Stephon Tuitt, T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree) inside the top 15 in PFF’s pass rush productivity metric; no other team has two. It should come as little surprise then that the Steelers are PFF’s top-ranked pass rush. If one is able to escape the ferocious interior pressure, it’s still possible to have success as a passer against Pittsburgh, as the secondary hasn’t played nearly at the same level as the front seven has. Steelers currently rank 25th in PFF’s team coverage rating. This is a positive sign for Odell Beckham, who doesn’t need a huge amount of volume in order to do a huge amount of damage (though he does rank in the top 10 players in true weighted opportunity share this season). He’ll need to be efficient on what are likely to be slightly limited looks, but there remains a high likelihood of Beckham paying off as the 11th-highest wide receiver on the main slate. His projection on Awesemo.com is in line with his salary this weekend.
The same cannot be said for his teammate Jarvis Landry, who has seen a significant dip in opportunity this season, but still has a salary more reflective of the Landry we’ve seen in previous years, someone who is capable of commanding 10 or more targets in the game. That’s simply much less likely in Kevin Stefanski’s run-oriented offense that filters targets mostly towards Beckham. The projections don’t love Landry as the 32nd-highest wide receiver on the slate. Austin Hooper, though, has probably sunk too low in his salary. Hooper let the team in targets in week 5 and has now seen 17 targets over the last two weeks, fourth most among tight ends during that span. Hooper is the “screaming buy” of the receiving corps as the 18th-highest tight end on the main slate. One detail that is hurting Hooper’s chances (but is likely better for the Cleveland offense overall) is the nearing return of tight end David Njoku, it’s possible he returns from IR this week, possibly taking away snaps and looks from Hooper. That’s far from the most likely scenario, however, and Hooper remains a sneaky strong play against Pittsburgh this weekend.
Cleveland Rushing Game
In Cleveland’s first game without star running back Nick Chubb (IR, knee), Kareem Hunt was on the field for 70% of the teams snaps in week 5, while D’Ernest Johnson saw 30%. Hunt, however, saw a vast majority of the opportunities, earning 21 compared to Johnson’s nine. Hunt’s opportunity total was the fourth highest among all players in week 5, an indicator of his consistent weekly value he’ll likely provide in the weeks ahead. The Steelers have not been an overly disadvantageous matchup for running backs in terms of fantasy points allowed versus opponent average, another positive for Hunt. Even in the “most likely” game scenario, where the Steelers get ahead and the Browns are playing from behind Hunt’s solid workload as a rusher and receiver, plus his relatively modest salary (relative to guaranteed touches) as the eighth-highest running back on the slate, will likely see Hunt as a value this weekend. He’s currently projected to be the fourth-highest rostered running back on the slate.
Pittsburgh Passing Game
The Steelers improved to 4-0, their best start in 41 years, thanks in large part to a monster game from wideout Chase Claypool, whose four touchdowns helped him become the top-scoring player in all of fantasy football in week 5. Just four games into his career, Claypool now has two finishes inside the top 16 in fantasy scoring at the wide receiver position. His 11 targets (somewhat bolstered by the early exit of teammate Dionte Johnson) in week 5 and strong hold on the team lead in air yards over the last three weeks show Claypool is primed to be an every-week contributor in Pittsburgh’s revamped 2020 offense, even if Johnson (concussion, back) returns to the lineup for week 6.
The Browns will aim to alter the timing of Ben Roethlisberger‘s throws with their top 12 pass rush (via PFF), led by Myles Garrett, who is facing the Steelers for the first time since the incident that saw him suspended for the remainder of 2019. Although this matchup’s column very rarely takes “bulletin board material” verseriously, this may be one of the rare cases where Garrett, the fourth-most effective edge rusher in the NFL according to PFF’s pass rush productivity metric, is given so much attention by the opposing offense of line that Cleveland defenders not named Garrett will be forced to make plays defensively. No other Browns interior lineman ranks within the top 100 players in pass rush productivity.
In the Cleveland secondary, things don’t look much better. The Browns were forced to plays quarterback Greedy Williams on injured reserve, and linebackers Tae Davis and Jacob Phillips are both in danger of missing this week as well. Even if the Steelers are forced to play without Johnson, their leading receiver in true weighted opportunity share, the Pittsburgh skill position players should still be able to find themselves in advantageous positions against the defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points versus opponent average to wide receivers.
The one Steelers player that has seen a dip in usage, particularly over the last two games is wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has only been targeted on 14% of the Steelers throws. Fellow wideout James Washington, as well as tight and Eric Ebron have seen more looks during the span. Smith-Schuster still leads the team in endzone targets, but as the eighth-highest wide receiver on the slate at $6,600, it’s difficult to justify rostering Smith-Schuster compared to his less expensive teammates. Both Johnson (if he plays) and Claypool, and possibly even Washington, all have the ability to have slate-breaking scores against the Browns’ struggling secondary.
Pittsburgh Rushing Game
Since exiting week 1 early with an ankle injury, running back James Conner has seen 18, 23 and 18 opportunities in his last three starts, and is nearly doubling the next closest Steelers player in total opportunities this season. His 63 total yards in week 5 can be explained, at least slightly, by the Steelers’ week 5 opponent (the Eagles rank among the top 10 most difficult running back matchups in terms of fantasy points allowed versus opponent average), Conner still found the end zone, saving his fantasy day. Although the Browns have been more successful at stopping the run than they have against the pass, it’s not impossible to think that Conner will find a way to score multiple times in what should be a positive game script for Pittsburgh. Even as the sixth-highest salary running back on the main slate, Awesemo projections remain high on Conner this weekend.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 17.
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