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Showdown Strategy: Monday Night Football NFL DFS | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Kyle Dvorchak



Week 11 Monday Night FOotball NFL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Advice Showdown Rams Buccaneers Ronald Jones

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Los Angles Rams on Week 11 of Monday Night Football. The game total is at 48.5 points and the Bucs are 4-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy football advice, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football

Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Captain

Tom Brady

Quarterbacks without rushing potential aren’t always great bets to be the optimal Captain because they can’t score without pushing one of their receivers past them. However, Brady has the best trio of receivers in the league, the greatest tight end ever and viable pass-catching running backs at his disposal. He’s averaging 273.9 passing yards per game and has 23 touchdowns on the year. Although he’s more likely to get negative rushing yards than positive, Brady does have some rushing touchdown equity. He has three rushing scores on the year. Our daily fantasy football advice is: playing Brady at Captain simply mandates that your lineups be especially unique in the Flex because of his 24% Captain ownership.

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp

Although Woods is averaging 0.7 more DraftKings points per game than Kupp, the Rams have made it clear who their top receiver is.

  • Kupp – 25% target share, 25% air yards share, 321 routes
  • Woods – 21 target share, 20% air yards share, 323 routes

Both receivers have seen seven targets in the red zone. Kupp is slightly more expensive, but he’s worth getting up to over Woods based on the discrepancy in their roles.

Ronald Jones

After seeing 10 carries in Weeks 8 and 9 combined, Jones came out in Week 10 with 23 rushes for 192 yards and a score. It was his fourth game with over 100 yards. Jones’ Captain ownership is just outside the top five despite him being the lead back for a 4-point favorite. Leonard Fournette has just nine carries in the past two games and is mainly used as a third-down back. Because Jones is unlikely to score on a reception, he makes for a great leverage play off Brady.

Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day

Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.

Tampa Bay Receivers

The Tampa Bay receiving room is difficult to decipher on just a two-game sample with Antonio Brown in the fold, but this is what it has looked like so far:

  • Mike Evans – 23% target share, 24% air yards share, 82 routes
  • Chris Godwin – 16% target share, 21% air yards share, 84 routes
  • Brown – 18% target share, 27% air yards share, 63 routes

While this makes it look like Godwin is the odd man out, he has still run a route on every single dropback for his team. He also has a history of out-producing Evans dating back to the start of 2019. Our Top Showdown Plays tool has him as the largest mismatch between his odds of being the highest-scoring player and his ownership.

NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations

Jared Goff

Goff’s fantasy output has been the tale of two games. The Rams have lost three games this year. Goff has averaged 291 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game in those contests. When they win, he has posted 29 fewer yards and 0.3 fewer touchdowns per game. Goff isn’t more efficient when losing. He simply gets to throw the ball more. Vegas has the Bucs winning this game by 4 points, so Goff is a viable Flex candidate for lineups built on the assumption that Vegas gets this one right.

Leonard Fournette

Fournette has operated as the primary pass-catching back for the Buccaneers this year but doesn’t hold immense value as a runner. Since the team’s bye week, Fournette is averaging 8.8 carries and 5.5 targets per game. His usage in the Flex is below 30% but he projects as the best value over $3,000 on the slate.

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Rams Running Backs

Rookie running back Cam Akers missed time early in the year with a rib injury and returned to a nonexistent role in the Rams offense. Then, in the last two weeks, he has led the team in carries.

Because it wouldn’t be unheard of to see a highly drafted running back get his workload tuned up as the season goes on, Akers is the best bet in this backfield. However, our Top Single Showdown Plays tool has all three backs as more popular in the Flex than their odds of being a top 2-6 scorer.

Josh Reynolds

Reynolds has been on a hot streak of late, posting at least 12 DraftKings points in three of his previous four contests. He led the Rams with 10 targets versus Seattle last week. Despite the recent performances, Reynolds should still be viewed as a distant No. 3 receiver for the Rams. He didn’t top two receptions per game in 2018 or 2019, and Kupp had been dealing with a wrist injury in recent weeks. His $6,800 price makes him a middling value, and the solid Week 10 outing could bump his ownership.

Rob Gronkowski

Gronkowski only has three catches since Brown joined the Buccaneers, but he did manage to convert one of them into a touchdown last week and the other into a 44-yard gain. With the amount of receiving talent surrounding him, Gronkowski is nothing more than a touchdown-dependent flier reserved for tournaments — mostly on FanDuel.

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Defense and Kicker

Pro Football Focus has the Rams and Buccaneers as top-five defensive units this year, but only one of the teams gets to face a glorified game manager. Goff’s interception rate and sack rate are both higher than Brady’s and if he struggled versus the Buccaneers defense, that only means he’ll be forced into throwing more. Neither defense is expensive on this slate, so both are firmly in play, but Tampa Bay gets the edge.

The Rams are attempting 1.6 field goals per game compared to the Buccaneers at 2.2. As the kicker on the favored team who is attempting more field goals on the season Ryan Succop is the preferred leg.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Scott Miller and Cameron Brate

Miller and Brate have run 25 and 24 routes, respectively, since Brown became active. Miller has four targets and Brate has three. Neither are great plays based on their low-volume numbers, but Brate surprisingly posted his second-highest snap share of the season last week. Miller, on the other hand, set a season-low mark in snap share. The Bucs ran two tight ends on 27% of their snaps last week, making Brate a sneaky option. His $2,200 tag is egregious for a backup tight end, but if he scores a touchdown, the cost won’t make much of a difference.

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.