The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Week 12 of Wednesday afternoon football. The game total is 42.5 points and the Steelers are 10.5-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings lineup advice and FanDuel daily fantasy football advice, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS and daily fantasy football picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Steelers vs. Ravens
Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Captain
Pittsburgh Receivers
Diontae Johnson fought through injuries throughout the early part of the season. In the last three games, Johnson has been healthy and dominating the targets for Pittsburgh.
- Johnson – 27% target share, 24% air yards share
- Chase Claypool – 23% target share, 38% air yards share
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – 14% target share, 12% air yards share
Our ownership projections currently have Johnson as the most popular at Captain among these three and Claypool as the least popular. Johnson’s ownership looks efficient, while Claypool’s $15,500 price seems to be scaring people off. Given the comical split of work between Claypool and Smith-Schuster, it’s worth the extra money to get to him. Claypool slots in as one of the best tournament plays at Captain if this ownership holds.
Robert Griffin
Griffin will draw the start in place of Lamar Jackson, who is currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Griffin should be expected to be similarly run-heavy as far as quarterbacks go. Because he is only $8,600, our projections have him as one of the two best values over $5,000. If he manages to run a touchdown in and throw for one, he’ll have a good shot at being the optimal Captain play. He’ll be relatively unpopular because of the defensive matchup, but Griffin is worth some shots in tournaments because of his rushing upside.
Benny Snell
Snell’s early ownership projection is egregious based on his assumed role. The Steelers played a few quarters of their first game without James Conner in Week 1. Snell was given 19 carries and one target in that game. Fellow backup Jaylen Samuels earned one carry and one target. With Conner on the COVID-19 list for this game, Snell is the lead back on a 10.5-point favorite. He is simply in a great game environment for a between-the-tackles back, and the team has already turned to him exclusively when Conner went down.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger is a viable Captain play in low-entry tournaments. He’s simply projected to be so popular in the premier roster spot that it’s difficult to build unique lineups with him at Captain. He leads all active players on this slate in DraftKings points per game and has multiple touchdowns in all but one game this year. He is shaping up to be a must-play in the Flex.
Ravens Running Backs
Both Ingram and Dobbins have been made inactive which leaves Edwards as a viable flex play and Hill is a worthwhile cheap option.
Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are eligible to play in this game after returning enough negative tests since their initial positives. However, they will not have practiced at all ahead of this game, so both could be kept inactive. If they aren’t, Dobbins was potentially beginning to separate himself from Gus Edwards and Ingram. In Week 10, Dobbins rushed 15 times compared to five combined carries for his apparent backups. He also saw the only running back target. If both backs are ruled out, Edwards becomes a phenomenal value. Fourth-string running back Justice Hill has not recorded a carry this year.
Marquise Brown
Brown has disappointed fantasy owners at every turn this year, but the Ravens have few alternatives when throwing the ball versus Pittsburgh. Starting receiver Willie Snead and starting tight end Mark Andrews are both out. Brown’s 38% air yards share is top-10 in the league because of his 15.4 aDOT. If his targets tick up but his route depth is held constant, Brown could be in for a big day at modest ownership.
Eric Ebron
Ebron has one game without a touchdown and more than 8.9 fantasy points. Even then, he only managed 11 points. However, he has scored four times this year and is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. He’s worth a flier but shouldn’t be the core part of anyone’s lineup portfolio.
Dez Bryant and Devin Duvernay
Last week Bryant ran 21 routes, fourth most on the team and second most among Ravens who will be active for Week 12. Duvernay, a third-round rookie from Texas, only ran eight routes. Bryant was targeted five times, which trailed only Snead and Andrews. Duvernay drew two targets. It’s clear that Bryant should be expected to see more work than Duvernay and could even see more volume than Brown. Bryant is a solid leverage play off Brown and a better overall play than Duvernay.
Defense and Kicker
Mostly working in during mop-up duty or in his Week 17 start from last year, Griffin has taken sacks on 9.8% of his dropbacks and been intercepted on 6.5% of his throws while in Baltimore. The Steelers have an absurd price tag of $7,800, but that could keep their ownership in check. They also correlate well with Snell at Captain.
There’s no reason other than getting a little different to play Justin Tucker at just $200 less than Chris Boswell, whose team is projected to score over 10 more points than Tucker’s.
Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Football Picks | DraftKings + FanDuel Lineup Advice
Anthony McFarland
Samuels has been ruled out for this game, so McFarland will be the understudy to Snell. His role might not be large, but he could make for a solid value if he can earn a few targets. He has been a healthy scratch at different points this year, so it’s difficult to expect much from McFarland. His $2,600 cost is his biggest asset.
Luke Willson
Willson will likely start at tight end for Baltimore with Andrews on the COVID-19 list and Nick Boyle on IR. He logged 11 offensive snaps in Week 11, on two of which he ran a route. Willson was previously a viable pass-catching tight end in Seattle before bouncing around the league a few times. The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec sees Willson drawing the start and playing significant snaps on Wednesday.
I’d guess Luke Willson. He and Culkin will probably have to play a lot.
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) December 2, 2020
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