The Data Deep Dive: Week 17 NFL DFS Opportunity, Efficiency, Target Share + Top Stacks

The Week 17 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 16 as we look ahead to Week 17 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Week 17 Data Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks

Note: All charts reflect data from the past eight weeks of play. Click graphs to enlarge.

Team Efficiency

nfl dfs expected points
The above two charts are two measures of team efficiency. The left chart measures offensive per-drive ability on the Y-axis and defensive per-drive ability on the X-axis. The right chart measures per-play ability. Both graphs use the expected points model popularized by the nflfastR data package.
  • It’s nearly impossible to say the Bears have played anything other than high-quality football over the last eight weeks. Ranking well above league averages on a per-drive and per-play basis on both sides of the ball typically coincides with a surprise march to the playoffs, and Chicago is no exception. They may not make it past Wild Card weekend, but they’re a much tougher out than originally expected.
  • After a Week 16 shellacking in Green Bay, it’s clear that the Titans’ defense is a liability heading into the final week of the season. Ranking bottom 15 in both per-drive and per-play defensive efficiency becomes an even larger problem when the offense remains committed to running the ball regardless of game script. The Titans are a juggernaut in close games or playing with the lead, but they haven’t proved themselves capable of mounting a comeback.
  • The Washington offense (especially when Alex Smith is absent) is about to ruin a historically great second half of the season by the Washington defensive front. Washington is on an island in terms of per-play defensive efficiency, ranking by far the best in the league. They’re second in the NFL in expected points allowed per drive as well. Washington needs Smith in the lineup to have any hope in their division-deciding Week 17 matchup with Philadelphia
  • While the Jets and Jaguars are certainly giving them a run for their money, the Texans might be in the most trouble of any franchise headed into the offseason. Deshaun Watson has only been able to buoy the offensive efficiency so much, as the Texans rank only league average in per-play offensive efficiency, but their defense (again on a per-play basis) is historically bad. Without a first-round pick, Houston is at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to improving their squad. They’ll likely be a defense we pick on considerably again in 2021.

Team Aggressiveness

nfl dfs fantasy football
The above chart measures team aggressiveness. The X-axis is Air Yards per second (Air Yards per Play/Seconds per Play) as a measure of pace and deep passing aggressiveness. True Neutral Early-Down Pass Rate (Y-axis) measures the number of times a team chooses to pass the ball on first or second down while within one possession. The raw number is fitted to its historical mean by using empirical Bayes estimation. This chart updates on Wednesdays when FootballOutsiders updates their pace data.
  • Pittsburgh is limping into the playoffs, best exemplified by the below-average size of their icon in the upper right. Despite being pass-oriented and relatively fast-paced, two team qualities fantasy gamers generally want to bet on, the Steelers are forced into the playstyle due to a complete inability to run the football. Passing may be great for fantasy points, but for real football, offenses still need to present a threat in the running game. Pittsburgh doesn’t do that right now.
  • Yes, the Chiefs’ typically high-flying offense has been, by its standards, stymied twice in the last three weeks, Patrick Mahomes continues to lead the highest-upside passing attacking in the league. His world-class weaponry (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill) absolutely helps, but Andy Reid’s unique commitment to passing, deep passing and fast-tempo play gives the Chiefs the highest offensive ceiling in the NFL every game they play. Daily fantasy gamers need to stay the course and keep jamming in Mahomes stacks weekly to catch the inevitable explosion games.
  • The same cannot be said for the Titans offense. Despite possessing an incomparably physically gifted running back in Derrick Henry and two high-quality receiving options on the outside (not to mention Jonnu Smith, among the league leaders in touchdown catches per game), the Titans’ slow pace and lack of passing in neutral situations makes the passing game tough to bet on consistently. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis should only be played in strong matchups. Luckily for fantasy gamers, the Titans’ Week 17 showdown with Houston is exactly that.
  • The Bills stomped New England in Week 16, officially ending the Patriots’ reign over the AFC East, but the Buffalo offense, led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, looks like a great bet in Week 17 and beyond. Buffalo has consistently chosen to pass in neutral game scripts while maintaining a league-average level of air yards per second of play.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback Efficiency

nfl dfs draftkings fanduel qbs
This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best). This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best).
  • He may not win the award,  but Allen is going to get MVP votes. With Mahomes not playing at his best, only Aaron Rodgers stands in Allen’s way as the top candidate for the league’s highest individual honor. His per-play and per-drive efficiency have been off the charts over the last eight weeks.
  • Russell Wilson’s second half has been a major disappointment compared to his red-hot start to the season. Over his last eight games, Wilson ranks outside the top 10 quarterbacks in per-play and per-drive efficiency and is surprisingly clustered with other erratic-but-high-upside quarterbacks like Taysom Hill and Derek Carr in the chart above.
  • The Steelers might have pulled a victory from the jaws of defeat last Sunday, but Ben Roethlisberger’s second-half numbers remain a huge area of concern heading into the postseason and 2021. Roethlisberger still sits in the backup-quarterback cluster in the center of the chart above, outside the top 20 signal-callers in per-play and per-drive efficiency.
  • If I’m the coach of the Miami Dolphins, I’m giving Ryan Fitzpatrick the start in the final game of the season and in the playoffs, assuming the team makes it. Fitzpatrick, on a per-play basis, has significantly outplayed Tua Tagovailoa over the course of the last eight games despite slightly underachieving in his per-drive statistics. The Dolphins’ offense has a much higher ceiling with Fitzpatrick in the lineup.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Skill Player Opportunities

NFL Opportunity Receivers Week 16 DFS
True Weighted Opportunity Share is a variant of Weighted Opportunity Rating, a metric created by 538’s Josh Hermsmeyer to combine a player’s share of team targets and share of team air yards into a single metric. True Weighted Opportunity share uses empirical Bayes estimation to estimate a player’s ‘true’ target share, based on the team’s sample of targets, and a player’s ‘true’ air yard share, based on the team’s sample size of air yards. As the season progresses, the error bars, which represent the 95% credible interval for the metric, will shrink, indicating more certainty in the model. Raw weighted opportunity rating is indicated by the red dots.
  • Though Stefon Diggs will likely end up the receiving champion for the season, Davante Adams remains the highest utilized receiver on any team, commanding over 37% of the team’s passing volume (including air yards) over the last eight games. No other player comes close to Adams’ passing utilization rate, and he’s been an absolute monster on FanDuel and DraftKings this year.
  • Despite inconsistent production, it’s encouraging to see Jerry Jeudy already in the top 30 receivers in true weighted opportunity share. Despite Drew Lock’s erratic play as a passer in 2020, Jeudy should absolutely be on fantasy gamers’ radar as an elite No. 2 option in 2021 when Courtland Sutton returns to the lineup.
  • Travis Kelce capturing the record for receiving yards by a tight end in a season (in just 15 games) is impressive enough, but it’s even more impressive considering the fact that he’s only been the fourth-highest non-wide receiver in the league in true weighted opportunity share over the last eight weeks, at least based on target share and air yards share, ranking behind Darren Waller, Mark Andrews and Evan Engram .

DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities

nfl dfs quality opportunity receivers
Quality Opportunities and Quality Opportunity Share are measures of high-value usage for fantasy football. A target, on average, is worth significantly more than a non-goal-line rush in any type of scoring system that uses point per reception, so Quality Opportunities combine targets and goal-line rushes into one high-upside opportunity metric. An advanced version of the metric also includes light-front carries and only on-target (catchable) targets. The chart will be updated as the data becomes available. True Quality Opportunity Share measures the player’s percentage of team Quality Opportunities and fits it to a historical mean using empirical Bayes estimation.
nfl dfs week 17 running back quality opportunity goalline rushes targets
This chart breaks down running back quality opportunities into its two main components: targets (the first part of each player’s bar) and goal line carries (the second part of the bar). The chart on the left ranks players by number of quality opportunities per game, while the chart on the right ranks players by their share of team quality opportunities in games that they played.
  • The most surprising name in the top 10 receivers (tight ends and wideouts) has to be JuJu Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster has had a relatively quiet season but exploded for 96 yards and a touchdown last Sunday. He shockingly ranks sixth among all non-running backs in total quality opportunities since Week 9. However, with news of Mason Rudolph starting for the Steelers in Week 17, Smith-Schuster is a stay-away option this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.
  • Myles Gaskin continues to see a massive amount of high-value looks whenever he’s active, now ranking second among healthy running backs in quality opportunities per game. More excitingly, only 50% of those opportunities have come through the air, meaning Miami continues to look to Gaskin at the goal line as well. Gaskin will likely need a monster Week 17 for the Dolphins to keep pace with the Bills.
  • The Packers continue to drastically under-utilize Aaron Jones, as Jamaal Williams now ranks ahead of Jones in quality opportunities per game and share of team quality opportunities. Barring an otherworldly performance in the postseason, the lack of usage is a strong indicator that Green Bay may be set to move on from Jones this offseason.
  • Jeff Wilson now ranks in the top 12 of active running backs in quality opportunities per game over the last eight weeks, and he has made the most of his extra utilization, ranking as San Francisco’s most efficient running back on per-play basis by a large margin.

Condensed Passing Offenses

stacks opportunity receivers week 16
The condensed offenses chart uses True Weighted Opportunity Share (see above) to find passing attacks that are focused on distributing significant pass volume to their top two or three play makers. The width of the bars represents each team’s relative pass volume, measured by comparing raw passes per game and raw air yards per game. Wider bars represent higher-volume pass offenses. When used in tandem with identifying fantasy-friendly future game scripts, the condensed offenses chart can help fantasy football players make informed decisions about theoretical variations in volume or receiver stacks to target. As an example using the chart above, a lineup with Adam Thielen should expect to capture roughly 33% of the Vikings’ passing game. Alternatively, if one were to predict that Thielen to see less volume than he did in previous weeks, according to this chart the next reasonable assertion would be that Justin Jefferson (using the bar chart on the left) and then Irv Smith (using the bar chart on the right) would be in line to receive a bulk of that opportunity.
  • DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy gamers have one final chance for the 2020 season to enjoy the hyper-consolidated Minnesota offense. The Vikings should be able to dominate the Lions’ depleted defense, and we should expect Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to command a massive percentage of the opportunity and production. Jefferson and Thielen rank second among all receiver duos in true weighted opportunity share.
  • With Diggs on a tear over the course of the season’s second half, not enough has been made of Cole Beasley’s excellent production with John Brown out of the lineup. Living up to the old “Six for 66” moniker, Beasley has averaged 5.9 receptions for 67 yards with two touchdowns over his last seven games. The duo of Diggs and Beasley ranks seventh in true weighted opportunity share, and they’ve been dynamic as options to pair with Allen on DraftKings and FanDuel all season long. .
  • Though Jalen Hurts has undoubtedly added a spark to the Eagles’ offense in recent weeks, it’s also clear Hurts is content spreading the ball out amongst multiple receiving weapons. The Eagles’ top receiving duo and receiving trio each rank 31st in combined true weighted opportunity share.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs

running backs fanduel draftkings elusiveness avoided tackles
The running back elusiveness chart is a measure of running back effectiveness over usage-time (total touches). Any players who appear above the blue shaded area are outperforming the historical trendline for the position, while players below the line are underperforming compared to their historical counterparts. Each season, only a few backs emerge from the pack and shift towards the top-right of the chart. These backs should be considered the true “workhorse” NFL backs and can be used as a starting point for identifying cash-game “locks” at the running back position.
  • As the season comes to a close, the elusiveness chart above happens to also illuminate the highest-value running backs from a production standpoint, with Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery and Alvin Kamara moving away from the pack, just as they did in fantasy scoring down the stretch.
  • Josh Jacobs, James Robinson and Mike Davis deserve honorable mentions as three players who overcame mediocre (or in Robinson’s case, terrible) offensive situations and wound up having massively productive seasons. Each relied on their elite elusiveness to get them there. Davis has completely transformed his perception as a bruising plodder, ranking among the league’s best in evaded tackles above expectation.
  • Melvin Gordon, trapped in an anemic offense that rarely even sniffed the goal line, doesn’t have the 2020 production to prove just how effective he was with the ball in his hands. Gordon ranks well above the historical trendline for evaded tackles after 225-plus touches this season. If the Broncos can improve even slightly offensively next year, Gordon could be in for a monster 2021.
  • Could Frank Gore return in 2021? Even after 200-plus touches, Gore ranks just below the historical trendline in elusiveness based on his workload and performed better (compared to historical expectation) than other low-end starters such as Kenyan Drake and Giovani Bernard. Gore, astonishingly, appears to still have juice in the tank.

PFF Grade Net Advantages

Week 16 Matchups PFF Grades Advantages
The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1, or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.
  • Get ready for one last week of Cook versus Henry debates for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, as both elite running backs appear to be in picture-perfect situations this upcoming weekend. In run advantage, offensive advantage and composite advantage, no other team comes close to the smash spots that both the Titans and Vikings appear to be in Week 17.
  • The Colts are playing for their playoff lives this weekend, meaning they absolutely won’t be resting any players against the Jaguars, who already have the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft locked up. The Colts should dominate from the opening kickoff and rank first in team net overall advantage. The Colts defense is an excellent play on DraftKings and FanDuel, or any daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.
  • With Kyler Murray likely sidelined, the Cardinals will rest their playoff hopes on quarterback Chris Streveler as he faces a stout Rams defense. The Cardinals already seemed to be at a distinct disadvantage on the offensive side of the ball, but the starting of a backup quarterback could lead to disaster this Sunday. The Rams are also starting a backup quarterback, but the Cardinals’ defense isn’t nearly the same beast as Los Angeles’, giving the Rams a distinct advantage heading into the all-important final game of the season.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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