It was a hell of a Week 1 in the NFL with explosive offenses and some major disappointments from some of the popular NFL DFS picks hyped up all offseason long. But there are a lot of lessons to uncover. Let’s go game-by-game and analyze all the top options for you DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft lineups for Week 2 of the NFL season.
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Since this is a weekly column and I’m throwing out some takes here, I want to keep a little bit of accountability in the introduction because much like most daily fantasy analysts I’ll have some good thoughts and some costly ones. Here are the Victory Laps and Walks of Shame from my content and personal lineup plays from Week 1:
Week 1 NFL DFS Victory Laps
- I started to feel like I was taking crazy pills with my all-preseason-long fade of the MIN passing offense relative to a lot of the industry’s projections. And with only 10 attempts for Kirk Cousins along with 21 carries for Dalvin Cook vs ATL (and nine for Alex Mattison), it felt good to have only modest exposure to the pass attack even if these numbers will unquestionably regress somewhat back the other way this year.
- Lamar Jackson was my featured player of the week with the thumbnail and a strong recommendation (as well as some surprisingly valuable points about BAL’s fast pace) and we know what he accomplished with an 85% completion rate with 21.2 yards per attempt. Most encouraging were his 11.9 intended air yards per attempt and the four attempts over 20+ yards, up from just 1.1 per game last season.
- Sammy Watkins was a player I recommended on most of my shows and in the Slant and Go last week with a solid opportunity and what I expected to be a JAX defense who could take away Tyreek Hill (albeit not as literally as they did). Being 4x the field on him bailed out some brutal plays I’ll discuss below.
Week 1 NFL DFS Walks of Shame
- I mentioned some really troubling Jameis Winston stats in last week’s column to the point that Jameis “truthers” went at me on Twitter and it turned out there was more bad than good for him. He’ll gave good weeks – and SF’s pass rush and defense were much improved with a 56% completion rate allowed while deflecting a sky high 30.6% of Jameis’s passes – but Jameis’s low completion rate along with an 8.3% INT rate and 7.7% sack rate were exceedingly poor and also crushed any potential sneakiness for cheap flier Breshad Perriman.
- Austin Ekeler was a guy I simply didn’t believe in in a matchup with an IND rush D that looked good last year. But with 18 touches and Ekeler’s explosiveness, being under the field on him was a costly mistake while going to guys like Leonard Fournette and Kerryon Johnson at slightly higher price points.
- And even though injuries happen, the Nick Foles injury was a real kick in the nards particularly with the cracked clavicle occurring on a deep completion to DJ Chark. Foles did continue to thrive under pressure in his exceedingly limited eight attempts though so that is one stat that continues to hold water.
But it’s a new week so let’s continue to try to put it all together as I go game by game for Sunday’s main slate with the guys who currently look like top NFL DFS picks in the Slant and Go for Week 2!
Dallas Cowboys (25.3 implied points) at Washington Redskins (20.8 implied points)
Top DAL NFL DFS picks
- Dak Prescott was exceedingly accurate with a 78.1% completion rate in Week 1 vs NYG and his six throws of 20+yards here were an increase on the 3.6 he attempted last year. With WAS repeatedly beaten by the deep ball in their Week 1 game vs PHI, Dak’s appeal is solid at reasonable prices.
- As I speculated last week, Ezekiel Elliott’s workload decreased a bit with just 14 touches in a game where it was well in hand and the pass attack shined. His numbers should increase somewhat but with 13 touches for Tony Pollard it’s safe to wonder if Zeke’s load drops relative to his 25.3 last year.
- Amari Cooper was a stud with his nine targets as was Michael Gallup who finally paid off his air yards opportunity from all last year. Gallup had seven catches on seven targets at 11.7 air yards per target while Amari had six catches at 11.8 air yards per target on his.
Top WAS NFL DFS picks
- I am not a Case Keenum believer overall but 44 pass attempts with just a 2.2% sack rate against a tough PHI defense does seem interesting. Keenum threw some deep balls, which we’ll discuss momentarily, but he overall had just 7.4 intended air yards per attempt.
- Derrius Guice is out and with the 8.9 yards per rush DAL allowed to NYG, Adrian Peterson should be a bit interesting after an underrated 2018 campaign. Ditto the 10 targets for Chris Thompson with both players at a reasonable price.
- Terry McLaurin was a shocking deep ball play with 20.4 air yards per attempt on seven targets, three of which were themselves over 20+ yards downfield (more than league leader Tyreek Hill’s 2.6 per game last year). With McLaurin’s price cheap and the DAL defense that appeared underwhelming vs an arguably worse NYG offense, McLaurin could be sneaky.
- Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and Vernon Davis received six, seven, and seven targets respectively and they could benefit if Keenum continues his pass volume. None packs the explosive wallop McLaurin seems to but this could be a sneaky spot for an unimpressive Week 1 DAL defense.
Minnesota Vikings (21.3 implied points) at Green Bay (23.8 implied points)
Top MIN NFL DFS picks
- Kirk Cousins threw just 10 passes in Week 1 but he completed 80% of them so he has that going for him. Green Bay’s defense brought solid pressure and coverage vs Mitch Trubisky and with a low team total, it does seem like this could be another run-game focused plodder. A Week 2 play of Cousins is likely to be very contrarian if the pass game does positively regress.
- Dalvin Cook’s 21 carries and two targets bode well for his load this year, as does his solid 5.3 YPR on those attempts. Alex Mattison may be just as good and received nine carries of his own but as long as Cook has this big of a load, he’s a strong play behind a solid run blocking line.
- I’ll continue my lack of interest in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with their three and two targets in Week 1. Those numbers will creep up, especially if Green Bay has more success throwing than poor Matt Ryan did, but I still find it hard to believe they reach the over nine targets per game each had last year.
Top GB NFL DFS picks
- It was a tough start for Aaron Rodgers with a 14.3% sack rate in the opener vs CHI as well as 30 attempts which were down slightly from his 37.3 last year. Coach Matt LaFleur has previously shown a desire to focus on the run but one would think Rodgers starts to see better opportunity if MIN’s D doesn’t equally throttle him.
- Aaron Jones saw just 13 carries and one target which was more than Jamaal Williams’ five carries and two targets but still not necessarily enough to find the upside you’d want to see. MIN allowed 4.3 yards per rush in Week 1 which is in line with their 4.1 YPR last season and it does seem like it could be tight.
- Davante Adams saw just eight targets in Week 1 and one could expect him to see similar bracketed coverage as Julio Jones which limited him to just six catches. Adams will have better weeks but this may not be an ideal bounce back spot.
- Jimmy Graham may not be entirely out of play with six targets in Week 1 and a shockingly high 19.5 air yards per target. If he’s being used to spread the field, he could be a viable option against a MIN defense who gave a 22.6% boost via Football Outsiders’ DVOA to the position in 2018.
Buffalo Bills (22.5 implied points) at NY Giants (20.5 implied points)
Top BUF NFL DFS picks
- This is it ladies and gentlemen: It is Josh Allen week! At his reasonable price and some GIGANTIC improvements in his one game sample size – a 135.4 QB rating on passes of 20+ yards with a 50% deep accuracy rating and an 84.8% adjusted completion percentage (passes that were on the nose and should have been caught) compared to a 62.9 QB rating and 36.5% accuracy on passes 20+ yards and a 64.7% adjusted completion percentage last year – against an NYJ defense that is better than the NYG one who allowed 12.2 YPP in Week 1.
- John Brown stands to benefit from this Allen growth with a stellar three targets over 20 yards and 12.3 air yards per target on 10 total targets for 123 receiving yards. That 27% target share that is just ahead of intermediary target Cole Beasley’s nine targets and 24%.
- Devin Singletary picked up just nine touches to Frank Gore’s 11 while TJ Yeldon clocked in at zero. Run defense was NYG’s one success vs DAL with three yards per attempt so this may just be an avoid situation with perhaps faint interest in Singletary and his 82.9 broken tackle grade from PFF.
Top NYG NFL DFS picks
- Evan Engram’s 14 targets and 11 catches were top numbers at the TE position and with his price at a reasonable clip, he seems like a potential top play vs a BUF team who allowed a similar short range target in Jamison Crowder to repeatedly hurt them last week.
- Cody Latimer was the deep target du jour with eight targets at 20.5 air yards per target, three of which over 20 yards, he could benefit from Sterling Shepard’s questionable concussion status. Shepard’s absence also increases Latimer’s likelihood of top coverage from Tre’davious White.
- Saquon Barkley only received 15 touches in Week 1 and this BUF defense really shut down Le’Veon Bell as a rusher in Week 1 with just 3.5 yards per attempt. Barkley may need to be more involved in the pass game if Shepard is out, a definite positive given the success Bell had vs BUF with six catches for 32 yards.
San Francisco 49ers (22 implied points) at Cincinnati Bengals (23 implied points)
Top SF NFL DFS picks
- Jimmy Garoppolo was catastrophic overall versus TB with 5.2 yards per attempt and a 3.7% INT rate. But Garoppolo’s 134 QB rating when pressured offers hope, even if his 63.1 QB rating when clean is a troubling stat. More deep throws could help too: Garoppolo’s 5.2 air yards per target was a bottom number.
- Matt Brieda had 15 rushes and one target to Rasheem Mostert’s nine rushes and one target. CIN did a nice job holding SEA to 2.9 YPR in Week 1 but Breida is at least a bit interesting with the more secure volume.
- The WR corps for SF was brutal with Deebo Samuel and Marquise Goodwin both with three targets while Dante Pettis barely played and notched just one target. The position may be an avoid for now with their prices not really reflecting their awfulness.
- George Kittle meanwhile was robbed of at least two TDs on costly penalties amidst his eight catches on 10 targets. Kittle’s 23 routes run were down from his 30.6 per game in 2018 but he still seems to be the only dependable weapon in what should be winnable matchups.
Top CIN NFL DFS picks
- Joe Mixon’s ankle’s status is key to watch; if he’s out, Giovanni Bernard could be a chalky play this week. Gio is a solid pass catcher and rusher and could be solid versus a SF defense who allowed 4.7 yards per rush to Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones.
- John Ross’s 12 targets and seven catches for 158 receiving yards and two TDs are certainly eye catching and they could be repeatable; Richard Sherman shut down Mike Evans on the outside in Week 1 but he’s unlikely to move into the slot, a place where Ross received six of his targets on 17 snaps for four catches and 68 yards. CIN’s increased pace clearly benefits him.
- Tyler Boyd also received 21 snaps in the slot but was targeted only once. His 10 targets overall are appealing but he could struggle to separate from Sherman when he’s on the outside, a common issue for Boyd without AJ Green.
- Andy Dalton threw 51 times in Week 1, just behind the OT game of Kyler Murray. The pace and general focus on a mix of short throws with 7.3 air yards per target and occasional higher percentage deep targets seemed to suit Dalton well. His 117 QB rating under pressure with 91.7% accuracy bodes well against a SF team who likely won’t have as much of a rush as SEA did last week.
LA Chargers (24.8 implied points) at Detroit Lions (22.3 implied points)
Top LAC NFL DFS picks
- I won’t doubt the volume for Austin Ekeler after he out touched Justin Jackson 18 to seven in Week 1. Even with oft iffy results in the run game, Ekeler’s pass game value with seven targets and 16 yards per catch is too appealing at a still relatively low price point.
- Keenan Allen is priced well given how mediocre DET’s secondary looked once ARI got their bearings. Allen has 10 targets and a 29% target share with a respectable 11.3 air yards per target en route to 123 receiving yards.
- I was a Hunter Henry non-believer and that ended up mostly positive, though his 32 routes run in Week 1 was more than George Kittle and Travis Kelce. This could be a week to buy in a little bit of Henry as a pivot to what I presume will be a high owned Ekeler but both could be in play with Philip Rivers and Allen in stacks.
Top DET NFL DFS picks
- The days of short throwing, conservative Matt Stafford were over with 11.9 intended air yards per attempt and 45 attempts in DET’s OT tie vs ARI, up from seven air yards per attempt and 34.7 attempts under Jim Bob Cooter last year. The volume is inflated by overtime and a fast ARI pace but Stafford turned loose on the deep ball offers some hope.
- As does Kerryon Johnson’s 16 rushes and two targets despite a bleh 3.1 yards per rush and no scores. Adjusting for the overtime, Johnson’s volume at least looks in line with his 15 touches per game from last year despite CJ Anderson’s 11 rushes.
- Marvin Jones was the big loser to Danny Amendola and TJ Hockenson’s arrivals with only four targets compared to 13 for Amendola, nine for Hockenson, and nine for Golladay. Jones’ big play ability still can have some value but his role seems fluid compared to the safety blanket Amendola and equal big play capabilities of Golladay and Hockenson.
Jacksonville Jaguars (18 implied points) at Houston Texans (26.5 implied points)
Top JAX NFL DFS picks
- Gardner Minshew steps into the starting QB role with new acquisition Josh Dobbs behind him if he falters. Minshew’s 88% completion rate was a good start but his 5.5 intended air yards per attempt with only two throws of 20+ yards could stand to increase. At his price versus an explosive HOU offense, he could be sneaky.
- Leonard Fournette saw 13 attempts and six targets vs Kansas City, the latter an encouraging increase from 3.1 targets per game last year. Despite his solid workload, he’s still more interesting in a competitive game environment than a blowout.
- Chris Conley led the WRs in targets with six, DJ Chark led them in air yards with 26.5 per target with three targets of 20+ yards, and Dede Westbrook was serviceable despite 0.8 air yards per target. They all have a degree of appeal at reasonable price tags.
Top HOU NFL DFS picks
- DeShaun Watson could thrive versus a JAX defense who was strafed by Pat Mahomes at home in Week 1. Watson was strong with his arm and his legs in the crushing loss at NO and while he’s not quite Mahomes, he could be worth his price tag.
- Duke Johnson had nine rush attempts with five targets, a serviceable workload at his price tag if JAX continues to be poor. Carlos Hyde took some rushes away but Johnson saw more catches in space and snaps down the stretch.
- DeAndre Hopkins may have his hands full with Jalen Ramsey so his ownership could be key to determine if he’s worth the exposure or not. As Sammy Watkins showed early in Week 1, Will Fuller could benefit quite a bit with Hopkins likely to get top attention.
- Keke Coutee’s availability is a key to watch for with the value it would take away from Kenny Stills, who had what appeared to be a gamewinning TD at NO. Neither is super playable but Coutee would be somewhat interesting at low volume if in.
Seattle Seahawks (21.5 implied points) at Pittsburgh Steelers (25 implied points)
Top SEA NFL DFS picks
- Russell Wilson saw even less opportunity in Week 1 than last year with just 20 attempts at 8.8 intended air yards per. PIT’s defense showed precious little vs NE and it’s possible Wilson can have an efficient day out but his lack of volume makes him hard to trust at much volume.
- Chris Carson saw 15 rush attempts and more pass game involvement as he led the team with seven targets but with run defense one of few things PIT did right vs NE with just 3.4 yards per rush while frustrating Sony Michel, it may not be a great week for Carson with a rising price.
- Tyler Lockett did not see the volume increase one would hope for with just two targets while it seemed as though DK Metcalf took more traditional Doug Baldwin routes on his six targets. The former still has two TD potential versus a PIT D whose top was frequently blown off by NE.
Top PIT NFL DFS picks
- Given the success Andy Dalton had in Week 1, Ben Roethlisberger and his 47 attempts are appealing in a bounce back spot at the PIT home opener. Roethlisberger had zero support from a drop heavy WR corps and that has to positively improve versus a SEA team who let John Freaking Ross go off on them.
- Juju Smith-Schuster is unequivocally in a bounce back spot too with a tough six catches on eight targets in Week 1 with four of those catches coming on five slot targets.
- Donte Moncrief’s 10 targets were infuriating to watch with his 30% catch rate but the opportunity was there for him and James Washington with his six targets at 28.2 air yards per and four of 20+ yards. Diontae Johnson could push either or both for playing time but for now they should get a shot to turn things around.
- Vance McDonald was a bust despite 20 yards per catch vs NE. He needs more than the four targets he saw, down from 4.7 last year, and he should see an increase in opportunity if Moncrief and Washington can’t find competency.
- James Conner could see more than the 10 rushing attempts he had vs NE as they quickly pulled away. SEA’s run defense really throttled CIN with 2.4 yards per rush but PIT needs to commit to the run more to give the pass game a shot at more room to operate with most outside of Juju unable to generate enough separation on a talent level.
Arizona Cardinals (16.3 implied points) at Baltimore Ravens (29.3 implied points)
Top ARI NFL DFS picks
- This is a terrifying spot for Kyler Murray after he threw 54 attempts in ARI’s OT tie vs DET. BAL has played at a top league pace for the last year+ and Murray could be gobbled up with this preposterously low Vegas total even though ARI stacks will be an interesting contrarian thought.
- David Johnson had 24 touches with 18 rushes and six catches on seven targets vs DET and he will be a key part of any shot at success for ARI. It’s hard to see much hope vs a BAL defense who had a -45% DVOA to pass catching RBs last year but the volume could be there if ARI somehow finds success.
- Larry Fitzgerald had 13 targets and eight catches while Christian Kirk had 12 and only four. Both received three targets of 20+ yards and that bodes well for their overall prospects while KeeSean Johnson’s 49 routes run offer some theoretical potential for him as well.
Top BAL NFL DFS picks
- Lamar Jackson was transcendent vs MIA with 21.2 yards per attempt, a 156.3 QB rating on his four throws of 20+ yards, a 158 QB rating with 100% accuracy when pressured, and a perfect 158.3 QB with 85.7% accuracy when in a clean pocket. Jackson should feast once again even if he doesn’t increase his three rush attempts per game back to his 2018 9.2 rushes per.
- Mark Ingram’s 14 rushing attempts were more than Justice Hill’s seven but less than Gus Edwards’ 17 and he likely could have out-rushed both if the game were competitive. Ingram’s price is up a bit everywhere but he still seems like a worthwhile play.
- Marquise Brown saw just five targets on eight routes run and his 18.4 yards per route is likely just a bit due for some negative regression. Hollywood is certainly a tournament receiver to consider with elite breakaway ability but the workload could stand to be higher to trust him or Miles Boykin at lots of ownership.
- Mark Andrews might be the more compelling target with eight targets and catches for 108 yards at 9.2 air yards per target. His price is low enough to be worth some exposure.
- The BAL defense is also a consideration given the low total and likelihood of baiting Murray into mistakes via sacks, pressure, and a 28.1% pass deflection rate.
New England Patriots (33.3 implied points) at Miami Dolphins (14.8 implied points)
Top NE NFL DFS picks
- Tom Brady may have won his battle versus time thanks to a full roster of weapons that stands to only improve with the big addition of Antonio Brown this week. Brady still only attempted three passes of 20+ yards, down from his 4.1 per game last year, and one would think he should have a highly efficient game with whatever he wants downfield based on what we saw from MIA in Week 1.
- Despite a brutal 0.9 yards per rush, Sony Michel saw 15 rushing attempts vs PIT. MIA allowed 5.8 yards per rush so Michel could be interesting leverage on a likely popular NE pass attack, as could James White and his seven targets in Week 1.
- Antonio Brown may not see the 11.1 targets per game he saw last year but it’s hard to not like his chances at a few catches and a score this week to start this new relationship on the right foot. He seems more likely to cut into the 11 targets Julian Edelman saw than the four Josh Gordon saw along with some of the four from Philip Dorsett and maybe a few from White as well.
- Based on what we saw last week and their prices, I’d favor Gordon over Edelman this week with Gordon’s 14.8 air yards per target for 24.3 YPC. It’s hard to imagine Gordon not breaking one.
- The NE defense is an option with a slate low implied point total for MIA along with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 3.4% INT rate which was actually down from his 2018 4.9% INT rate.
Top MIA NFL DFS picks
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a sporadic thorn in NE’s side and he still wielded a high 14.9 intended air yards per attempt in MIA’s Week 1 drubbing from BAL. As a cheap tournament flier, Fitzpatrick is a likely crazy but interesting thought.
- DeVante Parker’s seven targets, four of which were 20+ yards, make for an appealing run back option with NE offensive stacks. His 2.4 YPR were just behind Albert Wilson’s 2.6 but Wilson was exclusively targeted at the line of scrimmage.
- Mike Gesicki had a 19% target share with his six targets and he could also be interesting at a cheap price. His 15.5 YPC are good while his two catches were not.
Indianapolis Colts (20.5 implied points) at Tennessee Titans (23.5 implied points)
Top IND NFL DFS picks
- Jacoby Brissett remains cheap with 27 attempts in Week 1 and a 77.8% completion rate with a low six intended air yards per attempt. Brissett was wildly inaccurate when pressured with a 42.9% accuracy rate and also bad on deep balls with a 33.3% accuracy rate and a 64.6 QB rating so versus a TEN defense who really made issues for a historically accurate guy in Baker Mayfield it is likely not the best spot for him.
- Marlon Mack however is interesting with 25 rush attempts in IND’s OT loss at LAC. He remains a pass game non-factor with no targets but TEN allowed 5.1 yards per rush and Mack is clearly IND’s best shot at remaining competitive.
- TY Hilton will also do what he can with eight catches on nine targets and 3.2 yards per route. Brissett is not good at the things TY does best but his 7.4 air yards per target with those results show an ability to make the most of an iffy situation.
Top TEN NFL DFS picks
- I mentioned last week TEN’s penchant for a slowed down, ball control game and they mostly remained true despite their high point total and some big plays. Derrick Henry’s 19 rushes remain appealing for that reason even though his one catch for 75 yards and a score remain not the most repeatable thing around. Henry out-touching Dion Lewis 20 to six may be far more repeatable.
- It’s hard to question Delanie Walker after he returned to five catches on six targets with two TDs and 2.8 yards per route. Walker’s 20 routes run makes those numbers make them seem like an aberration but he does have a 25% target share on Marcus Mariota’s Week 1 24 attempts.
- The WR corps was a non-factor with Corey Davis’s zero catches on three targets, Adam Humphries’s one catch on one target, and AJ Brown’s slow motion but highly effective three catches on four targets with 18.7 yards after catch. Davis saw 7.1 targets per game in 2018 so he should see an increase but the pass game looks like a yikes situation.
Kansas City Chiefs (29.8 implied points) at Oakland Raiders (22.3 implied points)
Top KC NFL DFS picks
- Sammy Watkins was the big story of Week 1 and even a believer like me couldn’t have guessed he’d see 11 targets for nine catches, 198 yards, and three TDs. Watkins stands to benefit with Tyreek Hill indefinitely sidelined versus an OAK squad who was strafed by a generic brand version of Watkins in Courtland Sutton.
- Damien Williams out-touched LeSean McCoy 19 to 11 with six targets and catches to CcCoy’s one. McCoy showed solid burst with a 61.7 breakaway grade from PFF on his 8.1 yards per rush while Williams’s two yards per rush were not the best way to ward him off. The situation seems like an avoid with a slight lean towards Williams for now.
- Travis Kelce didn’t have his best game vs JAX with just three catches on eight targets despite 29.3 yards per catch. Kelce matched Watkins with two targets of 20+ yards and that gives him a great shot to bounce back vs OAK with no Hill.
- Pat Mahomes will look great again after he continued his hot 2018 campaign with a 156.3 QB rating on passes of 20+ yards, a 156 QB rating under pressure with an 87.5% accuracy rating, and a 130.9 QB rating in a clean pocket. The loss of Hill hurts but Mahomes will find a way.
- Mecole Hardman stands to see a shot at usefulness, though DeMarcus Robinson had more targets with two to Hardman’s one vs JAX. Hardman ran 27 routes to Robinson’s 23 but both could have a shot if Watkins and Kelce fail.
Top OAK NFL DFS picks
- The 24 touches for Josh Jacobs are a noteworthy number despite a mediocre 3.7 yards per rush. KC’s run defense received a 61 grade from PFF and OAK will need some Jacobs involvement for a chance to survive KC at home.
- Tyrell Williams’ seven targets at 17.9 air yards per target with three targets of 20+ yards will offer him some potential vs a KC team who allowed Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew to combine for 10.5 yards per pass
- Similarly Derek Carr with an 84.6% completion rate with 88% adjusted accuracy in his Week 1 debut could get a chance in a game where OAK will likely need to score more than they’re capable of for a shot at survival. Carr stacks with Williams and/or the 31% target share Darren Waller with a more reasonable 6.9 air yards per target could be viable value stacks.
Chicago Bears (21 implied points) at Denver Broncos (19.5 implied points)
Top CHI NFL DFS picks
- Given how poor generating pressure DEN was vs OAK with no sacks and a 62 pass rush grade from PFF, this could be a bounceback spot for Mitchell Trubisky after he threw 45 times in the season opener. His price is reasonable and took seven shots of 20+ yards vs GB.
- David Montgomery didn’t see enough volume with six rush attempts and one target compared to Mike Davis’s five attempts and seven targets; Davis could be slightly sneaky with that volume at his price point given how iffy DEN’s D looked vs OAK.
- Allen Robinson’s 13 targets in Week 1 are hard to ignore as he looked fully back to his pre-knee injury form. Trubisky’s inaccuracy doesn’t help but DEN was strafed by less skilled receivers in Week 1.
- The CHI defense is an option to consider after a mostly impotent offensive debut for for DEN and new O.C. Rich Scangarello. CHI generated no TOs versus GB but a 14.3% sack rate will give them a chance to harass Flacco who had a 50.7 QB rating under pressure vs an inferior OAK pass rush.
Top DEN NFL DFS picks
- Joe Flacco had moments of success vs OAK but he could be gobbled up by a CHI defense who allowed just 213 yards to GB in Week 1. CHI is likely to regress in turnover generation but their 2.1 yards per rush and 5.5 yards per pass are not terribly far off their 2018 performance.
- Courtland Sutton had eight targets to Emmanuel Sanders’ seven and either guy could be vaguely interesting contrarian plays versus the well-respected CHI defense. Sutton looked vastly improved on his 2018 form while Sanders seemed healthy, the issue is just that CHI could render Flacco impotent enough that neither gets where they need to.
New Orleans Saints (25.5 implied points) at LA Rams (28.5 implied points)
Top NO NFL DFS picks
- Drew Brees threw the ball an inspiring 43 times vs HOU, an important thing to note after his workload greatly decreased down the stretch last year. Brees looked as solid as ever but his price and the road spot may make him hard to want at much volume.
- Brees’s success gives more confidence in Michael Thomas who had 13 targets and 10 catches. Thomas looked as dominant as ever and is worth exposure even with LAR’s pass coverage on the upswing with an 82.8 grade from PFF.
- LAR was unable to defend Christian McCaffrey in Week 1 and that may make Alvin Kamara and his 20 Week 1 touches a high upside option. Kamara received eight targets which he converted to seven catches and was clearly ahead of Latavius Murray even more than he was Mark Ingram last season.
Top LAR NFL DFS picks
- Jared Goff was woeful in all situations vs CAR and a NO team with a 16.7% sack rate versus DeShaun Watson may not be a great recovery spot. Goff should see better days and LAR maintaining a fast pace will help but he was hideous under pressure last year with a 59.8 QB rating.
- Robert Woods’ 13 targets and eight catches paced the LAR WR corps with Cooper Kupp’s 10 targets and seven catches a bit behind and both should be viable even if Goff mostly stinks. Brandin Cooks needs a better version of Goff to have usefulness with his 13.3 air yards per target on his six targets that resulted in a 33% catch rate.
- Todd Gurley seems hard to trust with just 15 touches in Week 1 with Malcolm Brown at 11. Brown appeared a bit more elusive and explosive but it’s possible Gurley takes a bit more of the load back vs a NO defense who allowed 7.8 yards per rush in Week 1.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see the litany of other NFL DFS content I’ll have all week long!