There was a lot to love and a lot to hate about Week 2 in the NFL, but as is always the case, we have got to get back on the horse with some NFL DFS picks for Week 3. The NFL’s guard appears to be changing before our eyes with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger both knocked out and Eli Manning benched, all within the last few days. As the sand continues to shift beneath our feet in the early parts of the NFL season, there is some opportunity to make noise in daily fantasy tournaments across the industry. I’ll walk you through everything I see from the data, game watching, and the news swirling around as we head into Week 3 to get you ready to set those daily fantasy lineups.
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But first: Our weekly accountability check here in the Slant and Go with my Week 2 Victory Laps and Walks of Shame.
Week 2 Victory Laps
- My favorite human being Josh Allen was as solid as could be expected, even though he did not explode quite as much as it seemed like he could with the game mostly in hand early on. 300-plus passing yards is in range for him, though he needs competitive games as Buffalo really slowed down the offense in the second half with NYG unable to generate much offensively.
- I mentioned DeMarcus Robinson’s high snap count relative to Mecole Hardman and how that could open up value if Sammy Watkins or Travis Kelce failed. And boy did that one end up right. It is always hard to bank on a dart throw outlier performance like Robinson had but he definitely deserved more ownership than I and many others gave him.
- Dalvin Cook was my contrarian RB pick on On the Contrary with Awesemo and Rich Hribar. It was a bit odd how ownership fell off with him despite his proving in Week 1 his elite touches and ability. Like an idiot, I still played Alvin Kamara over him more often than not but Cook’s workload justifies exposure, given Minnesota’s offensive focus on the run.
Week 2 Walks of Shame
- There is no shame more than what I experienced in my own lineups with a Alvin Kamara. The injury to Drew Brees and a mediocre Teddy Bridgewater didn’t help, but I was shocked how bottled up Kamara was by a Rams’ defense, who was diced and sliced by Christian McCaffrey in Week 1.
- Although the Josh Allen portion of things came through, John Brown inhibited things just enough for me to keep from big gains in Week 2. His seven catches were reassuring but without the bomb plays connecting, Brown was less valuable and he became extremely chalky by the time the slate started.
- Pittsburgh’s passing attack looked good to me with a good amount of bounceback Juju Smith-Schuster in my lineups, That, along with some James Washington and Donte Moncrief, was mostly death for all lineups with any of the three. Maybe Mason Rudolph turns things around for a lethargic Pittsburgh offense, but this feels like a bit of a sunk cost already.
Now that we did the ever important self-congratulation and self-flogging, let’s get to it with the Slant and Go and my Week 3 NFL DFS picks!
NY Jets (10.5 implied points) at New England Patriots (33.5 implied points)
Top NYJ NFL DFS picks
- LeVeon Bell is not entirely out of consideration as a contrarian play, given his 27 combined touches per game. But with the likelihood of Luke Falk being swallowed alive by the Patriots defense, it is hard to trust much of Bell.
- Robby Anderson also saw some targets down the stretch and seemed more involved than Jamison Crowder overall. But, again, with Falk at the helm and an impotent offense averaging 162 passing yards per game, it is not looking great.
Top NE NFL DFS picks
- Tom Brady should continue his efficient start but with high risk of a blowout, it is certainly possible to see him ease off the pedal down the stretch again.
- Sony Michel is in play with an 18 touches per game average, though he has yet to see a target this year. That cuts into his upside if not scoring multiples of touchdowns.
- Antonio Brown debuted to eight targets at a solid 11.5 air yards per target and stands to improve as he builds his rapport with Brady. His price is reasonable, but with the likelihood of a blowout, his upside could be inhibited.
- Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon both seem likely to see a downgrade in their opportunities as Brown ended up receiving more deep targets and a healthy number of intermediate targets. These guys are not out of play, against the Jets, but Brown seems like the target to own with Edelman a bit behind.
- The New England defense also looks like a solid option, even though the NYJ offense should play fairly conservatively with Luke Falk. The defense decimated Miami in Week 2 and Falk is likely in over his head as a starter despite an 80% completion rate on low-risk passes against Cleveland.
Detroit Lions (20 implied points) at Philadelphia Eagles (27 implied points)
Top DET NFL DFS picks
- Matthew Stafford should be in the mix with his price down and 8.5 attempts of 20-plus yards per game. Philadelphia’s secondary has looked weak thus far with a 58 coverage grade from PFF.
- Kenny Golladay could benefit as he has thus far this season with 9.5 targets per game with 3.5 of them per game of 20-plus yards. Golladay is the high volume target of the offense and packs upside despite his rising price.
- Marvin Jones runs slightly fewer routes per game than Golladay with 38.5. Amendola is third with 28 per game, so Jones still has upside versus a Philadelphia defense who has allowed a 66.4% DVOA boost to WR2s.
- TJ Hockenson crashed down to Earth for those who bought in heavily to his Week 1 performance. He runs 29.5 routes per game and will likely have more boom and bust weeks with a 16% target share.
- Kerryon Johnson had some success in Week 2 but still has just 16 touches per game through two games. Philadelphia’s run defense with an 80 PFF grade and 2.8 yards per rush allowed is one shining spot amidst a defense who has been unable to generate many results this season.
Top PHI NFL DFS picks
- Carson Wentz had some real down moments versus Atlanta, but his 41 attempts per game look solid even with a banged up receiving corps who look to be down the injured DeSean Jackson in Week 3.
- Nelson Agholor benefited from Jackson and Alshon Jeffery’s injuries and is at an extremely cheap price even if Jeffery is in. Agholor averages 40.5 routes per game now along with eight targets, two of which are 20-plus yards, and Detroit has just a 67 graded pass defense from PFF.
- Zach Ertz also saw a greatly increased target load in Week 2 and is now up to a 26% target share. Jackson’s absence and the possibility of Jeffery out could make Ertz a stellar play with his price down industry-wide.
Miami Dolphins (13 implied points) at Dallas Cowboys (34.5 implied points)
Top MIA NFL DFS picks
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has been brutal with a 50% completion rate, 8% interception rate, and 10.7% sack rate. That said, he’s still throwing the ball deep 5.5 times per game at 11.8 air yards per target and that could create long shot value against a Dallas team who has been unable to generate a rush and allowed some deep ball gains in both its games this season.
- DeVante Parker is more playable to me than Fitzpatrick for that reason at a low price tag with three targets of 20-plus yards per game. Parker’s 21% catch rate on seven targets per game seems due for some positive regression and he is running 37.5 routes per game thus far.
Top DAL NFL DFS picks
- Dak Prescott had another strong game in Week 2. And though he can’t keep up his 82% completion rate and near perfect QB ratings forever, he could put up a monster game vs a poor Dolphins pass defense who allows 11.7 yards per pass and an 80% completion rate and is now down a top player in Minkah Fitpatrick.
- Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb could both benefit with Michael Gallup out a few weeks after a knee procedure. Cobb is an appealing value play while Cooper could see an uptick in deep targets with he and Gallup running a similar route tree.
- Devin Smith isn’t entirely out of play as a flier given the poor Miami defense and the 27 routes per game Gallup’s absence leaves behind. The volume is much less safe than Cooper’s or even Cobb’s but this is a spot for him to make the most of limited opportunity.
- Ezekiel Elliott took some more of his role back from Tony Pollard in Week 2 and it is hard to ignore him in this matchup with him now up to 19.5 touches per game. Though it is worth noting Miami’s run defense appears to be the one passable area of their squad with a 76 grade from PFF.
- The Dallas defense is also in consideration despite their high price, given the penchant for turnovers, sacks, and general incompetence from Miami’s quarterbacks. They may be over-owned after the slate-breaking defensive performance from New England in Week 2, but it could still be a viable play.
Baltimore Ravens (24 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (31 implied points)
Top BAL NFL DFS picks
- Lamar Jackson continued his hot start in the pace-up spot against Arizona and will likely need to put up bigger points versus the prolific scoring Chiefs offense. Jackson showed his rushing upside in Week 2, but he’s been good throwing the ball, and in this game, he and Baltimore’s play-callers may not have any choice in the matter.
- Mark Andrews seems to be Lamar’s top target with a 27% target share, including 1.5 targets of 20-plus yards per game. Andrews has run only 23.5 routes per game, just a bit more than Hayden Hurst’s 12.5 per, but Andrews has been so strong that he looks interesting despite a high 36.2% target per route run rate that may be due to regress.
- Marquise Brown’s routes run and targets were both up, putting him at 22.5 routes and nine targets per game. With Willie Snead’s role seemingly regressing and Brown safely ahead of fellow rookie Miles Boykin, Brown seems like their top receiver option with a good mix of deep balls and intermediate targets.
- Mark Ingram could find success if Baltimore opts to dominate time of possession against a Chiefs defense who has allowed 6 yards per rush this year. Ingram has only seen 14.5 touches per game, but that could stand to improve if the game script goes his way.
Top KC NFL DFS picks
- Patrick Mahomes is obviously still in play despite the matchup with a Ravens defense who has been solid for two seasons now. Baltimore is a good defense, but Mahomes is Mahomes and it is likely he finds a way to produce even if his ceiling may be slightly lowered by the matchup.
- I am less into the run game with both Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy banged up. The Ravens have allowed just 1.8 yards per rush with a 90 graded run defense by PFF. If both were to miss the game, Darwin Thompson would become a bit interesting, but the spot looks to be brutal.
- DeMarcus Robinson will have a tough time following up his massive performance with 172 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2, though as pointed out last week, his routes run numbers are right there with Mecole Hardman at around 32 routes per game. After the price jump, it may be a good time to go to Hardman or back to Sammy Watkins as he still averages 12 targets per game.
- Travis Kelce looks solid again with a 22% target share and two targets of 20-plus yards per game. Baltimore allows a 2.6% boost to tight end according to DVOA, one of their weaker defensive offerings overall.
Cincinnati Bengals (19 implied points) at Buffalo Bills (25 implied points)
Top CIN NFL DFS picks
- Andy Dalton’s passing volume decreased in Week 2, but San Francisco’s improved pass defense could be a big factor. Buffalo’s defense has been solid enough (4.6 yards per pass allowed) to not want a ton of exposure but if this game shoots out, Dalton could be in consideration.
- Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard are in a mediocre timeshare thus far this year with 11 touches per game for Mixon and eight for Bernard. Mixon could bounce back after an ankle issue kept him questionable in Week 2 but the volume seems hard to trust currently.
- Tyler Boyd’s 11 targets per game and an 86% catch rate could be useful versus a tough Bills defense who may be able to suppress John Ross’s hot start. Even though Boyd only sees one more target per game than Ross so far, Boyd should see safer routes and more favorable coverage with less Tre’Davious White.
Top BUF NFL DFS picks
- Josh Allen is in play again after a solid Week 2 where he could have done even more damage were it not for one overthrow and a big lead in the second half. An Allen eruption is coming and against a Bengals team who allows 10.3 yards per pass with a 31 coverage grade from PFF could be the spot.
- Frank Gore could stand to benefit from a hamstring injury to Devin Singletary so the latter’s injury status is key to watch. Gore has seen 16 touches per game thus far, and while he’s not doing much with 2.9 yards per rush, the opportunity could be there against Cincinnati, who allows 4.9 yards per rush and was gashed repeatedly by every single 49ers back in Week 2.
- John Brown is still in play for me after he had a serviceable game that could have been huge in Week 2. His nine targets per game are encouraging, and he runs shorter routes in addition to the two 20-plus yard targets per game that could make him explode in a GPP.
- Cole Beasley’s pass volume is there with 6.5 targets and 29 routes per game. Beasley is a helpful safety valve for Allen with less obvious value than Brown’s big play upside.
Denver Broncos (17.3 implied points) at Green Bay Packers (25.3 implied points)
Top DEN NFL DFS picks
- Emmanuel Sanders was a sneaky play I thought could be valuable versus Chicago in Week 2 and didn’t quite get there. But it strikes me as a similar spot here against a comparably tough Packer defense. Sanders gets deep targets, but also has quickly established himself as a safety blanket to a risk-averse Joe Flacco and that could be solid for him moving forward despite a Green Bay defense that has allowed just 5.6 yards per pass.
Top GB NFL DFS picks
- Aaron Jones has started to see the workload fantasy players have wanted for him with 18 rushes and four targets per game thus far (despite 9.5 touches per game also going to Jamaal Williams). Jones could be in play based solely on that volume despite Denver’s decent 73 run defense grade from PFF as they have allowed 4.4 YPR.
- Davante Adams showed he is still capable of big moments despite a decreased workload of 8.5 targets per game this year. His price is down a bit and that offers some theoretical upside if the run game is not working for Green Bay or if somehow Denver puts up points.
Oakland Raiders (17.5 implied points) at Minnesota Vikings (26 implied points)
Top OAK NFL DFS picks
- Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs were both mediocre to bad as chalk plays in Week 2 as we speculated here last week. But these guys are still reasonably priced and would be contrarian against a Minnesota defense who allowed decent production versus Green Bay last week.
- Tyrell Williams is more viable than the above two if he is active after getting banged up in Week 2. That said, his target share in a slow-paced Oakland offense is still no sure thing.
Top MIN NFL DFS picks
- Dalvin Cook remains the first place to look for Minnesota with him now bringing 23 touches per game with a sky-high 98.1 elusiveness grade and 51.7 breakaway grade from PFF. Oakland has limited the rush decently overall with a nice 69 grade from PFF, but the volume Cook receives can make him blow up in most spots.
- The passing attack remains a non-starter for me with another poor Kirk Cousins performance and limited volume for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Oakland’s pass defense has been poor as they allow 9.1 yards per pass but unless Cook is completely shut down it’s hard to imagine them deciding to air it out with Cousins’ 4.8% interception rate this year.
Atlanta Falcons (23 implied points) at Indianapolis Colts (24 implied points)
Top ATL NFL DFS picks
- Matt Ryan averages 44.5 pass attempts per game and his price is down so he could be a bit interesting against Indianapolis, who is feisty but allowed a 71% completion rate thus far. A Ryan-Julio Jones stack is well-priced in a game that should see some points scored.
- Calvin Ridley is at eight targets per game, 2.5 of which are 20-plus yards, and he is fitting in well in the “Dirk Koetter creates solid WR2 production” archetype.
- Austin Hooper remains reasonably priced for his 7.5 targets per game and now that he is significantly less than guys like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, he could be in play a bit more despit not bringing a monster upside.
Top IND NFL DFS picks
- Marlon Mack has retained a solid share on the workload with 22.5 rushing attempts per game and 23.5 touches per game total. ATL has been decent against the rush on paper with 3.7 yards per rush allowed, but their 70 graded run defense by PFF has allowed big games to volume rushers.
- T.Y. Hilton remains in play with 7.5 targets per game, a 27% target share on his 30 routes per game. Hilton lacks the big upside he showed last year with just 9.2 air yards per target and only one 20-plus yard target per game, but he’s valuable in competitive games and can still break one versus Atlanta’s 59.5 graded coverage groups.
Carolina Panthers (24.5 implied points) at Arizona Cardinals (22 implied points)
Top CAR NFL DFS picks
- Cam Newton’s foot injury has his status in question and it’s a crucial one to determine. A Newton bounce back is in play if he is healthy, given the matchup with the poor Arizona defense and their fast offensive pace. But Kyle Allen looked good at the back end of last year after Newton went out and could be in play if Newton misses.
- Christian McCaffrey should be in a solid bounce back spot after Tampa’s Todd Bowles-led run defense did a number on him in Week 2. The volume for Cardinal opponents has been huge at 76 plays per game and McCaffrey’s massive workload could benefit.
- D.J. Moore would remain my preferred play over Curtis Samuel but with both likely to see a big increase in routes run with Arizona’s pace, it could be a nice spot for both guys again. It would bode particularly well for Samuel if Newton is in, given that Samuel is averaging 3.5 targets of 20-plus yards after Newton aggressively (and poorly) threw the deep ball in Week 2.
- Greg Olsen has been highly targeted with nine per game and 39 routes run. Given Arizona’s 67% DVOA boost to tight end, he could benefit if Cam is in, given his role as a safety blanket to his long-time QB.
Top ARI NFL DFS picks
- David Johnson saw slightly fewer touches in Week 2 due to a wrist injury that knocked him out. However, he could be a solid play after Carolina gave up a lot of production to running backs in Week 2. The Panthers’ 65 graded run defense could break even more against players better than Peyton Barber.
- Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk remain highly targeted with 12 and 10 per game, as well as multiple 20-plus-yard targets per game for both. Damiere Byrd and KeeSean Johnson continue to see a lot of routes while Michael Crabtree’s number took a jump as well. But Kirk and Fitzgerald seem to be far more integral parts of the offense.
NY Giants (20.8 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.3 implied points)
Top NYG NFL DFS picks
- Saquon Barkley was the most relevant Giants player against Buffalo and that trend should continue with the move to rookie Daniel Jones. Tampa’s run defense has been strong thus far with just 2.7 yards per rush allowed and a 75 grade from PFF. But Saquon’s big play ability and possibility for short targets could be there with Jones. Evan Engram saw slightly fewer targets with the increased attention on him thanks to Sterling Shepard and later Cody Latimer‘s concussions. He could be a pivot to Barkley if the run defense gobbles him up as it did Christian McCaffrey, but he is a little harder to trust with the move to Jones at quarterback.
- Bennie Fowler has seen 38 routes per game and stands to benefit if Latimer misses time or Shepard remains out. Jones will be the guy throwing, however, so that is not much to bank on until we see it from the possibly poorly-nicknamed “Danny Dimes”.
Top TB NFL DFS picks
- This could, unfortunately, be a week to think a lot on Jameis Winston with his price down and a matchup versus a poor Giants pass defense. They receive a 29.4 coverage grade from PFF, worse than even Miami, and if Winston avoids his usual mistakes, he could have monster upside.
- Chris Godwin has been more targeted than Mike Evans with 7.5 targets per game to Evans’ 6.5, but Evans’ two targets of 20+ yards per game could offer him a chance to even things out. Both guys are strongly in play but Evans’ price being down could offer opportunity given the 10.4 yards per pass New York allows.
- Peyton Barber was the hot hand and greatly out-snapped Ronald Jones in Week 2, so he now has 17 touches per game to Jones’ nine. New York’s run defense is mediocre with a 64 grade from PFF, as they’ve allowed 3.8 yards per rush . Barber seeing volume could give him a shot at just enough production to be close to playable at his price point.
- O.J. Howard was called out for his poor production after Week 2 by coach Bruce Arians and that could make him a pivot to what may be high ownership for Godwin and Evans. Howard has seen only 2.5 targets on 21 routes per game, barely more than Cameron Brate. It is a risk but it seems unlikely many people will be on Howard despite a high Vegas total for Tampa Bay.
New Orleans Saints (20 implied points) at Seattle Seahawks (24.5 implied points)
Top NO NFL DFS picks
- Teddy Bridgewater did not look great as he filled in for Drew Brees, who is expected to be out upwards of six weeks. Bridgewater’s 57% completion rate on 6.8 air yards per throw could crush the chances of the entire offense. Seattle’s pass coverage has not been great either with a 50.2 grade from PFF, so maybe there will be better days in Bridgewater’s comeback tour.
- Alvin Kamara could bounce back and maybe see an increase in volume with Bridgewater’s overall iffiness and a week to gameplan around it. Kamara could see less ownership as well after a big bust as chalk in Week 2. That makes him interesting despite Seattle’s solid run defense that has allowed just 3.8 yards per rush.
- Michael Thomas should continue to see solid target volume with 13 targets per game and a 33% target share thus far. If anything, Bridgewater’s risk aversion and modest arm could result in more short range targets for Thomas to aid point-per-reception situations.
Top SEA NFL DFS picks
- Russell Wilson has been highly efficient with no picks and a 78% completion rate, but the volume remains as low as last year. New Orleans’ pass coverage has looked bad with a 50 coverage grade from PFF, so he could stack up well with big play Tyler Lockett who saw increased targets in Week 2 despite just 31.5 routes per game.
- Chris Carson could also be the driving force for success here despite Rashaad Penny getting more looks in the offense in Week 2. The Saints have allowed 5.6 yards per rush thus far in 2019 and Carson will get the first crack. He could squeeze the air out of the ball with a Saints offense who will be greatly weakened with Bridgewater at the helm.
- D.K. Metcalf is still in the mix at a reasonable price with 6.5 targets per game. Lockett proved he may be more of a WR1 than Week 1 showed, but there’s room for Metcalf to continue to produce with his 31 routes per game.
Houston Texans (22.3 implied points) at LA Chargers (25.8 implied points)
Top HOU NFL DFS picks
- The Chargers’ defense has not looked great with a 75.4% completion rate and 4.9 yards per rush allowed, so the whole Houston offense is in play. It starts with Deshaun Watson, who may see less pressure than usual with Los Angeles’ 3.4% sack rate thus far.
- Carlos Hyde may be the more relevant running back play with him up to 15.5 touches per game compared to Duke Johnson’s 9.5. Hyde grades out well with a 74.8 elusiveness grade from PFF and could benefit if the Chargers’ passing defense limits Watson and company.
- DeAndre Hopkins looks like he’s in a solid spot with reasonable prices industry-wide and Los Angeles’ 47.4% boost to WR1, according to DVOA. Hopkins has a 36% target share and his catch rate is likely to improve on a low-for-him 62% thus far.
- Will Fuller has been less involved but his 35.5 routes per game are up from 32 per game last year and with his big play ability with 24.3 air yards per target this could show a spot for him to break out.
Top LAC NFL DFS picks
- I would keep riding Austin Ekeler for now with his touches holding steady and up to 20.5 per game. Ekeler could be due for some touchdown regression, but Houston’s 48 graded run defense offers solid opportunity for Ekeler’s lofty volume.
- Keenan Allen also maintains a high volume spot as WR1 with 12.5 targets per game and a 36% target share as well as more deep targets with 2.5 per game of 20-plus yards, up from 0.5 last season. His price is too low for the opportunity in this spot with Houston’s pass coverage also graded a poor 50.6 by PFF.
- It’s hard to go to Philip Rivers in a world where we have so many guys airing the ball out or adding rushing upside and floors. But Rivers could have a big day passing with Houston allowing a 72.4% completion rate thus far in 2019.
Pittsburgh Steelers (18.3 implied points) at San Francisco 49ers (24.8 implied points)
Top PIT NFL DFS picks
- Mason Rudolph takes over as starting QB for Ben Roethlisberger after an elbow injury knocked him out for the year. Rudolph did not show much in his debut with a 63% completion rate and 5.3% INT rate on 8.3 air yards per target, so against a solid coverage group in SF, graded 80.1 by PFF, Rudolph may find some tough times (even though he could have upside in future weeks)
- James Conner expects to play after a knee injury in Week 2 but SF’s run defense has also looked solid as they allow 3.2 YPR thus far. Conner’s volume has been iffy and he should see claustrophobic defenses until Rudolph proves he can throw. If he were out, Jaylen Samuels could be interesting and involved with easy throws to ease the pressure on Rudolph.
- Juju Smith-Schuster still sees eight targets as well as 37 routes routes per game so he is not out of play with his price on the way down. But the matchup could be a tough one so it may be a week to keep expectations low and hope for better times to come.
- I cannot go to Donte Moncrief any more with his targets having fallen off a cliff and another bad drop that resulted in an interception. James Washington and his 22.1 air yards per target is still an interesting dart throw, but it may be a spot for only Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald with his 5.5 targets per game.
Top SF NFL DFS picks
- Jimmy Garoppolo had wide open receivers to help him out against Cincinnati in Week 2, but his 26 attempts per game is still low. San Francisco seemed to really want to push the run game to ease the burden on him, but it is possible Pittsburgh’s solid run defense forces him more into action this week.
- Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson are a three-headed monster that will be impossible to trust in this spot. They had decent results but week-to-week, it may be tough to determine who is the most valuable with Wilson used as a goal line back and Breida and Mostert close to even in terms of touches.
- George Kittle’s target share of 25% seems solid, but with Marquise Goodwin and Deebo Samuel running only slightly fewer routes, I do not have much trust for any of the passing options, even though PIT has offered DVOA boosts to every pass catcher while also clocking a poor 45 coverage grade from PFF.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see the litany of other NFL DFS content I’ll have all week long!
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