NFL Week 1
Football is officially back in action! Week 1 is here, and we have a 12-game main slate to breakdown with some marquee matchups right out of the gate. Week 1 is always a little unique in all sports just due to new rosters and the string of unknowns coming from the off season. This article may change a little once we get going, but I hope it serves as a sort of first look a few days out of the main Sunday slate and talks about some key points/games/questions that the given slate offers. As lock continues to get closer the scenarios and news should become clearer and with the multitude of shows we should be offering I will expand on my thoughts on the plays and notes below.
Favorite Game to Target
Bengals at Colts – Interesting game here, healthy total of 49 and a spread of only 3 points so it figures to be a competitive back and forth game script. On the DFS side you have reasonable options across the board with Dalton / AJ Green / Mixon all guys who should be in store for big games vs a defense that on paper does not look to have many disrupters and the ability to generate a ton of pressure on Dalton. Then you have the super speedster in John Ross who is more in the Tyreke Hill boom or bust GPP flyer bucket with his enormous big play abilities.
On the Colts side you finally have Luck back under center which should give TY Hilton and the rest of the Colts weapons some much needed stability going forward. The running back situation is one we are going to want to keep an eye on with Marlon Mack dealing with a hamstring issue opening the door for Jordan Wilkins, Christine Michael, and Nyheim Hines all taking on a larger role. News should become clearer as we get closer to lock, but Wilkins seems like the guy who would take on the lead back role if Mack is unable to go.
Easiest Game to Avoid
Bills at Ravens – This shouldn’t come as a shock to everyone as it sports the lowest total on the slate and features two uninteresting teams who have serious issues on the offensive side. The Bills are heading into the season with everyone’s favorite punchline Nathan Peterman who is best remembered for throwing what seemed like 10 interceptions in the 1st half last year during his head scratching start. Shady McCoy is still in the backfield, but a very bad offensive line and possibly the worst receiving core in the league make this a team that it’s hard to have a lot of interest in. Eventually Josh Allen will be tossed in there and we will see how that goes/ if it offers and DFS value, but overall its going to be a long year in Buffalo.
On the Ravens side we have Elite Joe Flacco still under center as Lamar Jackson time has no yet begun for Baltimore. This has been a boring offense for a long time for DFS and should continue to be, even though the Ravens are a touchdown favorite at home. Maybe a guy like Alex Collins gets a full workload and the game script should set up well, but it still feels like a situation where the ceiling isn’t overly high, and the floor isn’t cash worthy with so many other RB options.
The defense will be popular and in cash I certainly may give them a look, but as ownership becomes clearer I will probably try and pivot away from them in tournies and take a shot with a few other teams who have a chance to generate a ton of pressure which should hopefully force some turnover and possible big play opportunities.
Key Question
Steelers Lev Bell Situation – Le’veon Bell is not a happy camper right now and his availability is starting to be in serious doubt for the Week 1 matchup vs the Browns. If he sits, we are going to be looking at possible James Connor chalk week and he is going to be a guy that will be cash viable just based on expected workload alone. Again, ownership will dictate some of the tournament mindset with a player and RB is a deep position, so you can certainly look elsewhere and get away from the masses. If Bell plays he most likely will be limited and its hard to really pay that premium of price for the reduced volume he may see.
Quick Targets
QB:
Philip Rivers 6.4k DK – At home vs a Chiefs defense that I am not overly concerned with puts Rivers in play at this price tag. Losing Henry hurts, but still plenty of weapons and if the Chargers really are for real I think we see this price rise as the season continues.
Andy Dalton 5.8k DK – Mentioned this game above and at sub 6k price tag vs this defense Dalton makes a lot of sense. Dalton really struggles when under pressure, but the Colts lack of pass rush shouldn’t cause many problems giving Dalton the time and situation that he should excel in. Game is indoors so weather not an issue and this is a game I may look to stack on certain lineups.
RB:
Christian McCaffrey 6.4k DK – Seems viable in all formats with his homerun big play ability and now the volume that comes with being the guy in this backfield. His abilities in the passing game give him a nice floor as those check down passes add up quickly on a full point PPR site like DK. I, like many, expect some huge games from McCaffrey this year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see one right out of the gate at home vs the Cowboys.
Peyton Barber 4.1k DK – Tampa Bay is a mess, so I do worry they fall behind quickly and Barber does not see a full workload on the ground, but at this price he still is someone I’m giving a long look at. Obviously with Winston suspended Tampa is going to have to rely more on Barber if they want to keep this game in check in a tough venue at New Orleans. Saints’ defense isn’t awful, but last year they were in the bottom half against the run, giving Barber and opportunity to pay off this cheap price tag and allow you to spend up elsewhere.
WR:
Keenan Allen 7.5k DK – Rivers go to big play receiver, who if he remains healthy should have a monster year. Chiefs defense does not scare me at all, and him and Rivers paired up will be a common theme throughout lineups this week. Benefits from full point PPR as he gets peppered with targets and this price tag allows him some room for upside if he can find the endzone this week.
TY Hilton 6.8k DK – Obvious guy to pair with Luck and another player who is in the Bengals/Colts game which has some shootout potential. Boom or bust in nature as he is somewhat reliant on the homerun ball, but with Luck back under center Hilton is a guy you can look to early and often this year.
Demaryius Thomas 5.7k DK – Keenum will be an upgrade at QB for DT and the Seahawks D is certainly not what we are used to seeing, even with Earl Thomas reporting. The Broncos did add another WR to the mix, but I am not worried we see any sort of reduced role for Thomas and at this price tag he has plenty of room for upside. Broncos are an interesting team in general as I think there is a lot of unknown surrounding them, but I will always try to be a week or two early on a guy rather than waiting too long and missing out on the value.
TE:
Greg Olsen 5.4k DK – After an injury plagued season in 2017 we now have Olsen ready to go, and he should reassert himself as Cam Newtons go to safety blanket this year. The volume in the passing game is always there with Olsen and besides McCaffrey it would seem that Olsen is going to be doing a lot of the heavy lifting for this offense. I don’t mind using them together, or if you want to get away from what should be a popular McCaffrey yet still have exposure to the Panthers you can give Olsen a look.
Defense:
Ravens (Cash) 3.8k DK – Mentioned above and not a ton of thoughts on this one. At home vs probably the worst offense in the league gives the Ravens D as good of matchup as you will find. Being the most expensive option and one that is going to be popular isn’t ideal, especially in tourneys.
Chargers 2.8k DK – Mahomes may end up being a quality QB and I’m sure he will make some big plays, but there’s also no doubt in my mind he gambles a little too much leading to some big defensive showings. The Chargers edge rushers are elite, and that kind of pressure should force Mahomes into some decisions where I think we could see some big plays by this defense.
