DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Spotlight, Week 10

NFL Week 10

We are flying thru this NFL season with week 10 up next, and with it brings an 11-game slate to breakdown. Besides the main slate we also have an actual good Thursday night football game with the Panthers and Steelers so make sure to stop in and watch 3 Fellas talking football Thursday at 7 PM EST where we will be talking showdown slate.

This article is a first look a few days out of the main Sunday slate and will touch upon some key points/games/questions that the given slate offers. As lock continues to get closer the scenarios and news should become clearer and on the shows that are closer to lock I will expand on my thoughts on the plays and notes below.

** You can find all my shows throughout the week on our YouTube homepage at Stokastic_Com, and make sure to catch Me (@JazzrazDFS) and Dave Loughran (@Loughy_D) every Sunday at 11 AM EST with a full breakdown of each weeks NFL Slate **

Favorite Game to Target

Falcons at Browns – There isn’t a crazy game in terms of a total that stands out so there are plenty of options to choose from for games to target this week. The Falcons and Browns is one I’m very interested in, as the Falcons defense is on the short list for worst in the league, so the Browns offense should have plenty of chances for big plays. The Falcons were impressive last week on the road against the Redskins and even though the Brown D is no pushover they should be able to move the ball especially if they have to play catchup or keep pace. Baker last week wasn’t spectacular, but his price is still low enough where he doesn’t need huge games to pay off the salary and it allows you to spend elsewhere. Julio finally found the endzone last week and should have plenty of chances again this week in a game with a healthy total (50.5) and a Falcons -4 spread.

Easiest Game to Avoid

Bills at Jets – All jokes aside I think you may be able to find a play or two from this game, but when you have a total of 36.5 its hard to imagine trying to stack this one up. These two offenses are atrocious and now Darnold is hurt for the Jets, which honestly if anything will help the offense since Sam has been god awful lately. The Bills are at a different level of awful on offense and even if Josh Allen comes back its not going to be a situation where I’m looking to attack. Elijah McGuire is a guy will be taking a close look at, but this is clearly the least interesting game on the entire slate and one I will have little to no exposure to outside a dart throw or maybe a defense.

Key Question

Where to spend up? – Between Thursday night football, byes, and SNF / MNF we haven’t had all the big teams to choose from on most weeks as a lot of times the premier teams have been flexed to be showcased on that SNF game. This week however we have almost all the top teams in this 11 game slate which really forces you to prioritize where you want to spend and which superstar you want to target. The Rams, Chiefs, Saints and Patriots all are on the slate which hasn’t been the case in a while, so ownership shouldn’t be as concentrated with all these options to choose from. As value opens up, we will be able to take a few different top end guys, but the way the slate looks now I’m looking to prioritize paying up at the RB position and possibly save elsewhere. Almost all the RB’s at the top have quality matchups and it’s hard to imagine you can get away from completely punting the position just from an opportunity cost standpoint.

Quick Targets

QB:

Aaron Rodgers 6.4k DK – The Packers get a home matchup against the Dolphins this week, and it’s a game they must have if they want to make any noise in January. They are almost a double digit favorite and Rodgers should have all the chances to dismantle this team and produce a big outing against a defense that has crashed back to earth after a great start to the season. He is $800 cheaper than Mahomes, who obviously is also in play, but I have 0 concern about rostering Rodgers at home as he will be relied on regardless of score to lead this offense and produce big numbers.

Baker Mayfield 5.4k DK – Mentioned him above, as the Falcons are on the short list of teams I love to target especially when they are on the road. They just haven’t had the personnel to compete since they lost a handful of key players to injury early in the year and its created a great opportunity every time they are on the slate. The price is very appealing in the mid 5k range and Baker still has been producing decent fantasy outputs despite some so-so performances on the field. It’s a nice spot at home for the Browns offense and the floor is safe enough with Mayfield where I don’t mind targeting him in any format.

RB:

Melvin Gordon 9k DK – Him and Gurley are the top 2 RB’s on the slate, so you have other options up top besides Gordon this week. He does draw the Raiders who last time we saw them were getting demolished by Nick Mullens and the Niners on TNF. I would have to assume from a pride standpoint they put forward a better effort, but its not going to matter against the Chargers who are playing great and have a gigantic talent advantage. Gordon gets involved regardless of game script as he can catch passes and they love to use him in the redzone so him getting vultured isn’t a huge concern. The price has risen to Gurley like levels, but its justified when you look at his production and matchup this week and I expect another huge game from Melvin vs possibly the worst team in the league.

Elijah McGuire 3.4k DK – I’ve mentioned before that this was a guy I was waiting to return as I think he’s maybe the most explosive player the Jets have. I know it’s the Jets and that doesn’t mean much, but with Powell on IR we have a situation where McGuire will be relied on as that pass catching option out of the backfield. In his first game back he got 7 carries and 5 targets which produced a modest yet serviceable 9.7 points and I expect continued opportunities for McGuire each and every week. He always has upside even with limited volume because he is so explosive and if they Jets fall behind that’s an even bigger boost as Crowell is not the type of guy they can use in hurry up situations.

WR:

Tyler Boyd 7.5k DK – Ownership will determine how much exposure I get with Boyd, as he might be popular since he is now the #1 option for the Bengals due to AJ Greens injury. Boyd already was producing like a top receiver so it’s a question of does Green going out actually hurt him since he is now drawing the top coverage or will the volume increase make up for that and  actually make him undervalued. The Saints are a defense that certainly can be thrown on, and I expect a possible hangover effect after that huge game vs the Rams last week for them. John Ross is the speedball who will probably be opposite Boyd, but he is more of a deep threat and cannot be relied on for steady volume just due to his volatile nature. At 7.5k Boyd is a quality option and should receive double digit targets in a game where the Bengals will have to score if they want to keep pace with this Saints offense.

Jarvis Landry 6.2k DK – Not the best season for Landry, but this is still a guy who has seen 7+ targets in every game this year and 10+ in 7 out of 9 games. On full point PPR this is such a big boost to his floor and the price is pretty appealing at 6.2k on DK. It doesn’t hurt that he gets the Falcons who are awful across the board on defense and he makes a logical pairing with Baker this week who is one of my favorite QB’s on the entire slate.

Josh Doctson 4.3k DK – I hate to recommend any Redskins as they have disappointed all year and its impossible to nail down the production even when injuries arise. Having said that here we are with me recommending Josh Doctson, who is one of the few remaining targets Alex Smith has healthy and available to him. Paul Richardson is the latest to go down so now Doctson and Maurice Harris are the options on the outside and they draw the super matchup vs Tampa’s dumpster fire defense. We have Harris explode for 10 catches off 12 targets  last week, but I still think Doctson is the top options for them especially if Reed / Thompson are also unavailable or limited. This is an aggressive GPP play only as the Skins lost 2 offensive linemen for the season and the offense can really look limited at times, but to me the matchup and potential opportunities still warrant some consideration for Doctson who may see a big volume boost this week.

TE:

Trey Burton 3.9k DK – Lions are 30th in DVOA against tight ends and Burton is a guy who is certainly a red zone option for this Bears offense. The last few weeks he has had quiet games which shows his floor is a little dangerous, but I do think a lot of that was due to the games being out of hand. In each game the Bears were in control and relied on the ground game, so Burton really didn’t have many opportunities to produce and I don’t think that’s the case this week. The Lions aren’t a great team but should put up more of a fight than the Bills and Jets and that is a boost for a guy like Burton who sits sub 4k on Draftkings.

Defense:

Green Bay 3.1k DK – Not sure I will be using them with my Rodgers teams, but the Packers defense is certainly in play against the Dolphins in Lambeau. Osweiler or Tannehill are both capable of the complete blowup game and the Packers defense has been impressive against two of the top offenses in the league in recent weeks. They should be able to put pressure on each of this QBs who will be throwing if game scripts stays true to form and that is the formula we want every time when targeting defenses.

Good Luck, any questions find me in the Premium Awesemo Slack or on Twitter @JazzrazDFS.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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