NFL Week 3
Week 3 is here with another 13 game main slate to breakdown and discuss. Scoring was back to a more reasonable level after that insanity we saw in Week 1 and as the season gets going it will be interesting to see if certain trends develop in terms of overall scoring and where cash lines tend to be falling.
This article is a first look a few days out of the main Sunday slate and will touch upon some key points/games/questions that the given slate offers. As lock continues to get closer the scenarios and news should become clearer and on the shows that are closer to lock I will expand on my thoughts on the plays and notes below.
Favorite Game to Target
Saints at Falcons – The Chiefs and Niners have a higher total, but this NFC South battle should be a great game for DFS purposes. Falcons are a 3-point home favorite with a total at 53, and each team has plenty of weapons on the offensive side of the ball to do some major damage. The Saints are off to a sluggish start and really could be 0-2 against two suspect teams at home which is certainly concerning. Brees, Kamara, and Michael Thomas are the big names on the offense and the way Kamara gets peppered with targets he should be in line for a big game Sunday. Like McCaffrey last week we should see Kamara get a major boost that Deion Jones is hurt and unable to go, leaving the Falcons defense in a terrible position to stop him.
On the other side the Falcons are without Freeman, but still have Julio and there is little to no drop off with Tevin Coleman assuming the lead back role. Ryan last week was great with 4 TD’s, but somehow ran two in and found Ridley and Hooper for the other two leaving me and my Julio / Sanu teams out in the cold. He certainly has plenty of weapons and with the Saints D looking a little shaky to start the year I do not mind throwing in a few game stacks here hoping for a shootout in the ATL.
Easiest Game to Avoid
Broncos at Ravens – Ravens will be a popular guest in this portion of the article throughout the year as they are just a boring team and have a defense good enough to drag the opponent down to boring levels as well. Game has the Ravens at -5 with an O/U set at 43 so nothing leaps off the page there. The Broncos leaving Mile High will be a bump down and although they do have some viable WR’s its hard to choose between them and they are not in ideal spots. The RB situation is a mess with multiple guys getting carries, and at QB Keenum is fine, but it’s such a deep position with a ton of other options.
The Ravens offense is never a great one to target, starting with Flacco and I have little to no interest besides a possible flyer with the RB’s and WR’s here. Mark Andrews is going to be a good player, but with 3 TE’s in the mix it’s a tough spot to attack with so many other games on the slate.
What to do with Pat Mahomes – Fresh off the domination of the Steelers and the wayyyyy to early MVP of the league Mahomes is priced at a reasonable level and draws a great matchup vs the Niners. Obviously, regression will be coming, and that’s not a knock on Mahomes, it’s just that nobody could maintain this pace. Even when he comes back to earth a little he still will be a dangerous fade and the weapons around him make for a lethal offense. This week coming in this hot I would expect ownership to really be up there and there are plenty of QB targets a few hundred dollar cheaper, so you can find pivots if you want to swerve. Right now, I’m planning on coming in underweight if he’s in that ~20%+ range, but don’t see myself full fading as the ceiling is too hard to ignore.
Drew Brees 6.4k DK – As I mentioned above there is nothing wrong with finding some extra cash and getting to Mahomes, but Brees off a nice price drop in the mid 6’s is also an appealing option. The game sets up well as the Falcons defense has already lost a few key pieces making them a pretty appealing team to pick on early in the year. Saints have a healthy team total of 25 and Brees should be involved in most of the offense as Kamara isn’t exactly a ground and pound option.
Russell Wilson 6k DK – The Seahawks look shaky at best, but if they have any chance to turn around this season it will come from some massive Russell Wilson efforts. He is the focal point of the offense and with the lack of running game it seems like that won’t be changing anytime soon. Although the Seahawks have struggled they faced two tough defenses on the road and now go home where they have always been at an advantage vs a Cowboys defense who is solid, but no juggernaut. Wilson always has some rushing upside and even though he might not have the most efficient game, I like him as a sneaky under the radar tournament QB.
Alvin Kamara 9.5k DK – I have already talked about Kamara being a nice target due to the Falcons missing Deion Jones and coming off a somewhat quiet game should allow him to not be overowned like we had seen dating back to last year. Kamara always has massive upside, its more can you justify paying this price tag for what could be limited volume when looking at some of the other guys in this range. This game should be competitive throughout and I think the volume will be there which is why I will try and find the salary to get up to Kamara and hope that we see one of his massive ceiling games.
Corey Clement 4.3k DK – This is a situation to monitor as Sunday gets closer as we do not have clarity on the situations of both Ajayi and Sproles which determines Clements viability. If both sit it would stand that Clement takes the feature role and with his pass catching abilities, it’s a cash as well as a GPP target at 4.3k. If either Ajayi or Sproles plays we will have to reevaluate and try and determine what kind of workload we can expect for Clement, but its clearly a potential juicy spot given the matchup with the Colts.
Deandre Hopkins 8.3k DK – Plenty of options up top with all that talent, but the Texans are an interesting team to target this week and Hopkins is always involved in the offense. Will Fuller is back, and that guy seemingly catches a long TD every week, but Hopkins still saw double digit targets and returned a quality 6/110/1 line last week. The Giants have issues on both sides of the ball and Hopkins is matchup proof anyway with his immense talent. He is a little banged up, but from all reports he should be good to go, and I don’t mind using him in both Watson-Hopkins pairings or as a stand alone to get some exposure to this game while focusing elsewhere in terms of game stacks.
Tyler Lockett 5.3k DK – With Doug Baldwin out we have Tyler Lockett assuming the go to guy role and responding with 2 TDs thru the first 2 games. He is a bit of a boom or bust guy just because he runs a ton of deep routes, but with the lack of weapons we will see Wilson take plenty of shots in Lockett’s direction. He is the natural tournament pairing with Wilson this week and at home vs the Cowboys I expect the Seahawks as a whole to play a lot better putting them both in play.
Tyler Boyd 3.7k DK – There doesn’t seem to be a ton of cheap punt plays on this slate, so Boyd at 3.7k is interesting. Mixon is out so the ground game may be less effective, and Boyd has become a reasonable 2nd WR next to AJ Green who is just a monster. Dalton does have plenty of options with the RB’s, Eifert and Green, but Boyd still saw 9 targets last week and if that type of volume continues we will see this price rise in the future. Matchup is fine at Carolina and there will be teams where taking the savings with Boyd will allow you to pay up for some of these premium plays in great spots.
Zach Ertz 6.8k DK – Unlike last week where it felt like paying down at TE was the move this week I am looking to spend up and Ertz makes a nice play at home vs the Colts. Wentz is back, and with Wallace out and Jeffery banged up they are going to be relying heavily on Ertz to produce. Last week he saw 13 targets and could have had a monster week if he found the endzone and or cracked the 100 yard bonus. Colts defense is one that I will continuously pick on as they don’t have much going on, adding to the appeal of spending up to a guy like Ertz.
Vikings 4.3k DK – If you have the money its hard to imagine the Vikings defense not producing in the optimal spot which is home vs the Bills. We have seen the Ravens and the Chargers both dismantle this team and the Vikings at home with that defense should have 0 trouble getting to Allen. The Bills offensive line is a joke and now Shady is dealing with a rib injury, so their best offensive weapon may be hobbled. Certainly, there are reasons to try and save some salary at defense, but I will make sure I spend up to grab some Vikings D as the spot is near perfect.
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