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DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Spotlight, Week 4

Ben Rasa

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NFL best bets odds picks predictions lines parlays WEek 5 London Jets vs. Falcons Sunday player prop bets free expert advice against the spread

NFL Week 4

Week 4 is here which means for the first week this year we will have a few teams on the bye week, so the main slate is now 12 games instead of the usual 13. Some heavy hitters are not going to be featured with the Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, and Steelers among some of the teams featured on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night football this week.

This article is a first look a few days out of the main Sunday slate and will touch upon some key points/games/questions that the given slate offers. As lock continues to get closer the scenarios and news should become clearer and on the shows that are closer to lock I will expand on my thoughts on the plays and notes below.

Favorite Game to Target

Bengals at Falcons – The Saints and Giants have a higher total, and certainly is a solid target, but I will continue to target this Falcons D in a game with a lot of options on both sides. The Bengals are a little banged up with Mixon probably out, and AJ Greens status up in the air with a groin injury. If Mixon is out, Gio Bernard becomes a solid play once again at a mid 6k price tag vs a team who has trouble dealing with pass catching running backs. McCaffrey and Kamara are both monsters, but the Falcons are not equipped to deal with pass catchers out of the backfield and they lost another safety after Week 3, so this defense continues to get weaker. Dalton, AJ Green (If healthy), and Boyd are all options in the passing game and I do not mind taking some shots with game stacks here.

On the Falcons side its business as usual, with Tevin Coleman still leading the backfield assuming Freeman is a no go. On the outside you have Julio, Sanu and fresh off a monstrous Week 3 Calvin Ridley so there are plenty of options to look to on the ATL side. If Ridley looks popular based off last week I may be coming in underweight, but I still will have plenty of Falcons within my rosters this week.

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Easiest Game to Avoid

Eagles at Titans – Eagles come in laying 4 on the road with a total hovering just above 40 which isn’t exactly a green light to attack. Last week we saw Wentz return to action and the Eagles grind out a W against the Colts, while the Titans also grabbed a win in a horrendously ugly 9-6 game against the Jags. The Eagles are still banged up with the RB situation cloudy and Alshon still possibly out, but even with all that I do not see many spots to target with this offense. Ertz is always a quality play but paying up at TE really hamstrings the rest of your roster, and Gronk is probably my preferred top tier TE anyway.

The Titans offense is just bad and going against a solid unit like the Eagles defense isn’t making the spot any more appealing. Mariota seems like he will be under center, but he’s not a target and the weapons around him are always risky at best. Corey Davis and Dion Lewis are guys I will look at, but best-case scenario they are last man in types on teams and this is just not a game I will be looking to stack or target heavily.

Key Question

What to do with the Patriots– The Patriots were not on the main slate last week, but anyone who watched their game vs the Lions saw how sloppy and unpatriot like they looked. Gronk, Hogan and the RB’s were ineffective and with Edelman still out they face a key division game with the Dolphins this week without much additional help unless Josh Gordon can give them something. Burkhead is now on IR so we have Sony Michel and James White as the main targets there, and the receivers are still difficult to peg. The big question is are the Patriots in trouble or is this just a hiccup in another season where they will be just fine and get back on track at home this week. Right now I am interested in the Patriot weapons in a game where I think they do find a way to win against a Dolphins team who is a tad overrated coming off their great start. Hogan, Gronk, Brady and even the RB’s are guys I do not mind targeting and depending on how ownership looks I plan to be overweight on the team.

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Quick Targets

QB:

Deshaun Watson 6.3k DK –The Colts D has been a unit that I have tried to pick on, but they have been impressive so far and look better than advertised. Still, I am not overly sold that it continues, and we have Deshaun Watson coming into Indy who isn’t the most efficient QB but still can put up huge numbers for fantasy. He is a threat with his legs giving him additional upside, and even though he might throw a pick or two we saw last week he should be throwing it all over with the lack of running game the Texans have. If the O-line can keep him clean and give him some time I think we see a big game here from a guy who still possesses a massive ceiling each week he’s out there.

Andy Dalton 5.4k DK – As I mentioned above the Bengals are a solid team to target this week and Dalton will be heavily involved in any type of shootout that may unfold. AJ Green’s status is one to monitor, but Dalton has weapons around him and has been solid so far this year. The price is very tempting and allows you to spend up in other areas where there is a bigger opportunity cost for trying to go with a cheap value. Falcons D continues to lose key players, and the games in a dome which are two more check marks in terms of Daltons situation.

RB:

Melvin Gordon III 8.3k DK – Chargers are a big favorite against the Niners who saw their season crumble with Jimmy G going down. They should have 0 trouble getting out to a lead in this one and with Gordon’s ability to be an asset in both the passing and running game I do not see the game script being a huge issue. He is always a favorite in the red zone and he should find the endzone this week, which he needs to do to pay off this pretty expensive price tag. There are other reasonable options with Zeke, Saquon, etc., but the floor Melvin has puts him in play for me in a game where he should have plenty of opportunities in and around the redzone.

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Gio Bernard 6.3k DK – Again, I mentioned some of this earlier, but it is worth repeating how the Falcons losing Deion Jones have made them vulnerable to pass catching backs. If Mixon is out, we have Gio who is playing  a healthy amount of snaps and his abilities in the backfield will be a problem for Atlanta. The price is fair, and the ownership will be there, but I still do not mind Gio in both a cash and GPP setting.

WR:

DeAndre Hopkins 8.4k DK – Plenty of options up top with all that talent, but the Texans are an interesting team to target this week and Hopkins is always involved in the offense. Hopkins again saw double digit targets and is basically on the field for 100% of snaps each week, and as I mentioned with Watson they face a Colts D that I’m still not sold on despite the decent start. Fuller is another weapon and another option that I do not mind for the Texans, but I will certainly pair up Hopkins and Watson this week in what should be a good spot for entire Texans offense.

Allen Robinson 5.9k DK – Bucs secondary is a unit that we can attack, and Robinson has been racking up the catches so far this year. Trubisky isn’t great, but he clearly has established a chemistry with Robinson and the amount of targets each week is too much to ignore. He hasn’t found the endzone yet, but it is just a matter of time and this feels like a decent buy low spot if we do see some of these redzone looks being converted soon. Better play on DK than FD just due to the full point PPR which suits Robinsons game right now.

Sterling Shepard 4.9k DK – Might be one of the most popular players on the slate, but Shepard is a guy I do have some interest in even with the ownership that comes with him. Engram being out solidifies the targets and the Saints defense has been just terrible so far this year. Odell is a great target, but in a different pricing tier so Shepard is the perfect way to get cheap exposure to the game with the highest total and that’s where a lot of the ownership will come from. Last week he took advantage of no Engram in route to a solid game and I expect more of the same at home this week.

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TE:

Eric Ebron 3.6k DK – Like many last week I felt like chalk Ebron was a shaky idea, but the price and appeal still made me play him in cash and on some tourney lines. He salvaged with a few late catches, but overall it was not the showing we were looking for. He did lead the team in targets with 11 and that’s something we cannot ignore if Doyle sits once again this week. The price hasn’t really moved, and maybe some of the ownership has after last week, but I sadly will be going back to Ebron in hope he converts one of those redzone looks in route to a solid showing at a cheap price tag.

Defense:

Bears 2.6k DK – If you have the money I wouldn’t fault anyone for getting up to the Jaguars as a home matchup vs the Jets is very juicy but saving some money with the Bears also seems viable. The Bucs are putting up points, but Fitzmagic showed it wasn’t all good with 3 quick INT’s on Monday night and I expect more turnovers when they go into Chi. Khalil Mack and that defense has shown they are a legit unit and for this price it’s a spot I’m very interested in for both cash and GPPs.

*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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