Following a Week 2 sadly laden with season-ending injuries, those who managed to escape with their tendons intact likely have an awesome matchup in Week 3, because there are a number of excellent ones this Sunday. While the NFL DFS chalk bucket of the week is looking like the Cowboys/Seahawks shootout we’re all hoping for with an indicative Vegas game total at 57.0, the Detroit Lions taking on the Arizona Cardinals is looking like a barnburner as well, posted with a 55.5 game total by bookmakers. With that said, we’ll be going over the best FanDuel DFS picks for Week 3 based off Awesemo’s grades and projections.
The injury report is a doozy to say the least, headlined by the extremely unfortunate ACL-tear for Saquon Barkley. To top it all off, Christian McCaffrey has a high ankle sprain and is due to miss at least four to six weeks. And then essentially half of the entire 49ers roster endured injury (not really half, but Jimmy Garoppolo, Joey Bosa, and Raheem Mostert are just a few of them). As dreary as it may sound, injury is the land of opportunity when it comes to any team sport, and there will be plenty of new opportunities found in NFL Week 3.
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FanDuel DFS Picks Week 3
QB Ryan Tannehill ($7,400): Points C, Value A
Coming off a four touchdown performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, Ryan Tannehill has a fantastic matchup with the Minnesota Vikings heading into Sunday. Tannehill just notched a 145.7 passer rating and has yet to throw an interception all season. He’s completing over 70% of his pass attempts in 2020 and is priced just $400 more than his asking price in the first two weeks.
Tannehill’s targets against Minnesota in Corey Davis, Kalif Raymond, and Adam Humphries all have a slight advantage over their anticipated defenders this week. Although his pass attempts were nearly sliced in half last week by comparison to his Week 1 outing (24 ATT Week 2, 43 ATT Week 1), Tannehill did anything but rest on laurels, as he proceeded to carve out an efficient road map to production against the Jaguars defense en route to 26.76 FanDuel Fantasy Points.
The 2020 Minnesota Vikings have a defense that could make Nick Swardson cry, averaging 21.2 FanDuel Fantasy Points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and given the lopsided advantage for the Titans offensive line in both pass-protection and run-blocking, things don’t look like they’ll be getting any better for them this week.
The Vikings are rolling out the walking wounded on the left side of their secondary, with ailments lingering for both left cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Cameron Dantzler. Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown has yet to practice all week, leading to all but an Out designation for the stud wide receiver. This will mean a lot more Adam Humphries and Kalif Raymond aligned along the left outside and left slot interchangeably, who will be facing makeshift coverage with Hughes and Dantzler in question. Stacking Tannehill with either receiver in Humphries or Raymond, along with tight end Jonnu Smith, will provide additional salary savings while carrying low-owned upside given the holes in the Minnesota pass defense.
Besides the defensive discrepancies on behalf of the Vikings, there’s additional beauty to the value in rostering Tannehill when considering the anticipated field ownership behind him. According to Awesemo’s Ownership Projections, Tannehill is slated to be rostered by less than 5% of the field, which projects for the ninth-highest owned among quarterbacks Sunday.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 3.1%
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RB Austin Ekeler ($7,500): Points B, Value B
The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Tyrod Taylor suffered a mind-bogglingly unfortunate injury off-the-field just before their game against the Chiefs last Sunday, having his lung accidentally punctured by a doctor when receiving a pain-killing injection. In turn, this opened the door for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for over 300 yards in his debut in the Week 2 overtime loss to Kansas City 23-20. The change in quarterbacks is a huge boost for Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, who should garner more targets given Herbert’s increased pass attempts over Tyrod Taylor’s lean on running the ball himself.
Ekeler is coming off a well-rounded fantasy performance, scoring 16.8 FDFP on 16 rushing attempts for 93 yards along with four receptions on four targets for 55 yards. While Ekeler’s downside on the surface is splitting carries with rookie running back Joshua Kelley, Ekeler accounted for the team’s third-highest number of targets behind Keenan Allen’s ten targets and Hunter Henry’s eight targets. However, Austin Ekeler is involved in 61.78% of offensive snaps, which is 13th-most among all running backs in the league, exceeding Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, and Nick Chubb in that metric. Ekeler’s shear involvement in the offense makes for solid fantasy upside with a rookie quarterback who, while talented, will be looking to lean on Ekeler’s versatility as he plays a majority of downs (Kelley has been involved in 38.85% of snaps).
Against a Carolina Panthers defense who’s shown a major weakness against the rush, the Chargers offensive line should provide success in both the running game along with in pass protection. The Panthers defense has allowed six touchdowns to the rush, along with 127.5 rushing yards per game and 5.29 receiving yards per target to opposing running backs. As an added incentive for tournaments, Ekeler is only projected to be the 12th-highest owned running back on FanDuel in Week 3.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 5.5%
WR Amari Cooper ($7,000): Points A, Value B
The Dallas Cowboys eked out a win in an impressive comeback by their offense last week against the Falcons, squeaking by with a 40-39 home victory over Atlanta while receiving a solid contribution from their receiving corps. Heading into Week 3’s matchup against Seattle with the highest game total in all of Week 3 at 57 points, Amari Cooper’s got all the room to feasibly produce one of the week’s top fantasy outings at the wide receiver position.
Although he’s projected to be a rather chalky option among available wide receivers, Amari Cooper proves to be good chalk at least and draws what seems to be the best matchup among Dallas wide-outs, where he should see a majority of coverage against cornerback Shaquil Griffin when lined up along the left side of the field. While Cooper is averaging a ho-hum 13 FanDuel Points per game to start the 2020 season (13 FDFP in each), that could change for the better this Sunday as Cooper currently leads the Cowboys in targets (23 TGT) and receptions (16 REC).
The battle along the trenches projects to be difficult for the Dallas running game, which lends itself to the notion that quarterback Dak Prescott will be leaning on the Cowboys receiving threat early and often. Squaring off with a Seahawks pass defense allowing the most FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to wide receivers, surrendering 55 FDFP to the position by giving up 731 receiving yards and two touchdowns so far this season. Amari Cooper, while ranking fourth-highest overall in ownership among FanDuel wide receivers, isn’t tipping the scales with the field exposure and still very much worth rostering in all formats.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 22.2%
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 3 Fantasy Lineup Constructions
- From the Slot: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
- The Slant And Go: Big NFL DFS Value In Week 3 As Injuries Plague The League
TE Darren Waller ($6,600): Points A, Value C
Before getting into this play, if you are to consider rostering Darren Waller, you’ll want to keep an eye on the practice report for Friday considering Waller is nursing a knee injury and wasn’t seen in practice coming off a short week.
Injury status aside, Darren Waller is proving to be everything the public has been hoping for dating back to before the start of last season. Following a slow start to the season in Week 1, the Raiders resurgent tight end was absolutely jaw-dropping on Monday Night Football in their home opener against the New Orleans Saints. Waller put up an incredible 22.5 FanDuel Fantasy Points with ease against the reeling Saints, in lieu of 12 receptions for 105 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown off of an insane 16 targets.
There’s no question that he won’t sustain that level of productivity week-to-week, but his outright dominance and athletic ability makes the most of every play he’s included on. Waller has been involved with over 90% of offensive snaps thus far (fifth among tight ends), as he remains the obvious top target for quarterback Derek Carr, especially with a Las Vegas offense sans Tyrell Williams who opted out due to COVID concerns.
Heading into Foxboro to wage war with the Patriots, the matchup for Waller will be to the Raiders advantage as he’s a whole seven-inches taller and 45-pounds heavier than New England safety Adrian Phillips. While the Patriots are allowing the third-fewest FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to opposing tight ends (5.90 FDFP), they’re still surrendering 228.5 passing yards per game. And with how involved Waller is running routes from both inside and outside the slot from either side of the field, I believe he will be worthy of the trade-off as being the highest-owned at his position and one of the best FanDuel DFS picks on the slate.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 16.5%
Contrarian Stack: Chargers
As mentioned with Austin Ekeler earlier, the offense opens up entirely for the Los Angeles Chargers with the new inclusion of rookie starter Justin Herbert and his arsenal of weapons to choose from. With Herbert projected for just over 1% ownership, alongside identical numbers for wide receiver Keenan Allen (1.1%), the aspect of getting different will be easily accomplished while getting a quarterback who just threw for over 300 yards in his abrupt first start to his career.
Coupling Herbert with Ekeler and Allen will not only be an under-the-radar stack, but the fantasy-point upside is very much one to build confidence in as the ninth-ranked team on the Awesemo Top Stacks Tool. Facing a Carolina Panthers defense who sits at the bottom of Pro Football Focus overall defensive rankings, there’s a bundled value between opposition and ownership in stacking the Los Angeles Chargers.
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