Fantasy Football 2020: 12-Team PPR Mock Draft

No matter what anyone tells you, the best part of fantasy football is the obvious…

It’s the draft.

Getting together with your friends and assembling your team is legitimately one of the greatest days of the year. The NFL season is still a ways away but with the draft over, we can finally start doing mock drafts to either prepare or, especially at this current juncture, stay sane. But we can learn a lot from mock drafts, as we’ll get a general idea of ADP for certain players, as well as how deep or shallow each position is. So I figured why not participate in my first mock of the year and go over the results? Luckily, I was joined by 11 fantasy freaks in a 12-team, three-receiver, full-PPR draft.

Let’s break it down.

Round 1

[table id=1372 /]

My pick: Davante Adams. In a league where you start three receivers, I was thrilled to get Adams 10th overall. Adams returned from his foot injury in Week 9 and went on to trail only Michael Thomas in targets (91) during that span. He was also targeted on 18.1 percent of his snaps in 2019, the third-highest rate among qualified receivers. With a massive need at the receiver position, the Packers addressed it by signing Devin Funchess and failed to draft a wideout in perhaps the deepest class we’ve seen in years. After seeing a massive 30.3 percent target share last year, look for Adams to hit a similar mark in 2020.

Even in a three-receiver league, getting Ezekiel Elliott at 1.08 is absurd. Meanwhile, my man Nick grabbed Derrick Henry — who has 57 receptions in 62 career regular season games — with the 11th pick. I know for a fact Nick wanted Adams and while Henry isn’t the ideal PPR player, there is also something to be said about just drafting good players who will touch the ball a ton. Arguably the best running back in the league over the last year and change, Henry is coming off a monster year where he paced the league in carries (303), rushing yards (1,540) and rushing touchdowns (16). Henry was obviously a fantasy star, ranking second in fantasy points per touch (0.51) and fourth in fantasy points per game (19.4). The Titans will keep feeding him the rock, as they ranked third in run rate a season ago at 48.7 percent.

Round 2

[table id=1371 /]

My pick: Miles Sanders. I took Sanders over guys like Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake and the more I think about it, the more I like Sanders this year. In Weeks 1-9 of his rookie year, Sanders was splitting work with veteran Jordan Howard, averaging just 8.3 carries per game. However, Howard got hurt after Week 9 and from that point on, Sanders saw his workload jump to 15.6 carries and 4.1 receptions per game. During that same span, Sanders ranked fifth among all backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.55) and 10th among all runners in fantasy points. Howard is now in Miami and the Eagles didn’t bring in any notable running backs in the draft or free agency. Sanders is a top-12 back with top-five upside.

Nick made another interesting pick, grabbing rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the second pick of the second round. Some people might think that is too early but I disagree. Sure, the Chiefs’ general manager said Damien Williams will start, while Edwards-Helaire will compete for touches. First of all, it is May. Secondly, the GM isn’t Andy Reid, who said that the rookie back reminds him of Brian Westbrook — but better. The last time Reid invested a first-round pick in a rookie was LeSean McCoy, who touched the ball 195 times his rookie season. I could see a similar workload for Edwards-Helaire in an elite offense. Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter, Kansas City has ranked ninth and second in red zone scoring trips per game. Last year would have been higher, but Mahomes missed a few games. In games he played at least half the snaps, Williams has been a top-10 fantasy back in this offense and Edwards-Helaire is a much better player and fit.

The first quarterback came off the board in the middle of the second round with Team Deadline selecting Lamar Jackson. While he offers something no other signal-caller possesses (11.7 carries per game), I likely won’t be investing an early-round pick on a quarterback. Of course, this isn’t a bad pick by any means, as this is where Jackson will be drafted in most leagues.

I can’t lie — I did not like the Melvin Gordon pick. I have Ekeler, Drake and Todd Gurley ranked significantly higher than Gordon, who still has some question marks in regards to workload. The Broncos currently have Gordon, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman on the roster, while adding a ton of pass catchers during the draft. Both Gordon and Lindsay have been effective goal line backs in their careers, making it interesting to see what the split will be.

Round 3

[table id=1373 /]

My pick: Cooper Kupp. Kupp appeared to be in line for a huge season. Through the first eight games of the season, the Rams slot man scored five touchdowns, eclipsed the 100-yard mark five times and caught at least five passes seven times. During that span, Kupp was third in receptions (58), second in yards (792), second in fantasy points and fifth in fantasy points per snap (0.35). He struggled a bit in the second half, averaging 46.1 receiving yards per game over the final eight contests, though he did find the end zone in each of his last five games. Kupp always gets looks from Jared Goff in close, ranking fifth in targets from inside the 10-yard line (10) and third in red zone receptions (16).

It was interesting to see Sal go with a third running back in as many rounds but the receiver position is very deep this year. A trio of Saquon Barkley, Kenyan Drake and now Todd Gurley is very solid. If you watched Todd Gurley last year, you can’t come away thinking he suddenly stinks at football. He was top-20 in terms of yards after contact and was 13th in broken tackles. The big difference, however, was the lack of big runs, as Gurley was 47th among 50 qualified backs in PFF’s breakaway run rate. He had just eight carries of 15 yards or more. Gurley was also just 21st in yards before contact per rush (2.2), as the Rams run-blocking unit took a massive step back in 2019. 21 percent of the Los Angeles carries were stuffed at the line of scrimmage, good (or bad) for the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. The move to Atlanta might actually benefit Gurley if the offensive line can remain healthy. He is a borderline top-15 back with top-10 upside.

Legend grabbed sophomore A.J. Brown with the final pick of the third round. I get the appeal, as Brown was electric as a rookie, ranking second in yards per pass route (3.46) and yards per target (12.5), while ranking third in yards per reception (20.2). He also led all wideouts in yards after the catch per reception (8.9) but I think this is too early for him. Yes, Brown will be a full-time player from the jump, unlike last year. But it is tough to rely on these big plays and guys drafted after him like Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods and JuJu Smith-Schuster should have more consistent target totals.

Round 4

[table id=1374 /]

My pick: Le’Veon Bell. It is no longer exciting to draft Bell in fantasy football but in the fourth round, I’ll take his workload. Yes, there was a report that recently came out insinuating that Bell could cede touches but I don’t really buy it. Bell wasn’t explosive at all last year behind that awful Jets offensive line that created 1.4 yards before contact, the lowest mark in the league, though when in space, he still looked like a top tier back. Bell had one breakaway run all season but still saw solid volume, ranking seventh among all rushers in opportunity share (76.8%), while averaging over 20 touches per game. The Jets made a ton of improvements to their offensive line this offseason, led by free agent Connor McGovern and first round pick Mekhi Becton.

We saw Nick take rookie Jonathan Taylor with the second pick of the fourth round. It is a bit high for my liking but there is no denying the ceiling for Taylor in this offense. The best interior runner in college football behind the best interior offensive line in the NFL? Seems like a great marriage. We’ll just have to see if Taylor gets a big workload right out of the gates. This time next year, however, I think Taylor will be a consensus second-round pick in fantasy.

After disappointing 2019 campaigns, both Odell Beckham Jr. and Juju Smith-Schuster fell to the late fourth. JuJu is an obvious bounce back candidate, as his 2019 season consisted of injuries and horrible, horrible quarterback play. Beckham, meanwhile, definitely didn’t play his best but was also banged up throughout the year, while the Browns offense was a train wreck. Cleveland often treated Jarvis Landry as the team’s WR1 last season, while the team has plenty of weapons, making me more likely to take JuJu among the two. Still, I like both picks here in the back end of the fourth round.


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Round 5

[table id=1375 /]

My pick: David Johnson. I hated this pick. I looked at the board and wasn’t enamored by anyone so I grabbed another back who could touch the ball 18-20 times. The Texans clearly gave up a lot to get him and very quietly in 2019, Carlos Hyde rushed for 1,000 yards and averaged a healthy 15.3 carries per game, ranking 12th in total carries with 245. Johnson looked very poor as a runner last season but was still more than serviceable as a receiver, averaging over 10 yards per catch and 4.1 yards before the catch per grab, the highest mark among all running backs. If he can stay healthy, there is no reason to think Johnson can’t return top-20 running back status.

Some might think that 5.6 is a bit high for Deebo Samuel but I’m fairly certain he is going to be “my guy” this season. The sophomore was explosive in his rookie campaign, ranking second among all receivers in yards after the catch per reception (8.3) and 10th in average separation (3.2). The 49ers didn’t draft an alpha receiver, just Brandon Aiyuk, another big YAC guy, while Emmanuel Sanders is now in New Orleans. From Week 10 on last year, Samuel was sixth among receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.32) and the WR9 in all of fantasy during that span. With Sanders gone, I think we see Deebo in the slot more, where he operated just over 23 percent of the time during his rookie year. That could be helpful, as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo targeted the slot 44.5 percent of the time in 2019, the eighth-highest rate among qualified passers.

Round 6

[table id=1376 /]

My pick: Cam Akers. Again, I wasn’t thrilled with this pick either but it is never a bad idea to load up on potential starting running backs. Akers played behind an awful Florida State offensive line where, per Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints, Akers averaged 0.57 yards blocked per attempt, the worst number since he created the yards created metric. He was also contacted at or behind LOS on 30% of his carries, highest rate among this class. As a result, he forced a whopping 74 missed tackles last season. The Rams offensive line took a huge step back last season. Gurley was also just 21st in yards before contact per rush (2.2), as the Rams run-blocking unit took a massive step back in 2019. Twenty-one percent of the Los Angeles carries were stuffed at the line of scrimmage, good (or bad) for the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. Akers could easily lead this backfield, while I also think the Rams throw to their backs more this year. I’m very intrigued by the Florida State product.

I really, really wanted D.K. Metcalf, who went off the board one pick before me. As a rookie in 2019, Metcalf led all wide receivers with 18 end zone targets, converting six of those looks into touchdowns. Metcalf might be emerging as the No. 1 receiver in an offense led by arguably the most efficient passer in the NFL in Russell Wilson, while Seattle might be more pass-heavy than usual in 2020. Getting him in the sixth round is really nice value.

BTrain took Tampa Bay rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn towards the end of the sixth round. Vaughn has the upside of being the top back in a Tom Brady-led offense, as he’s a much better pass catcher and pass blocker than Ronald Jones, who was pulled from games multiple times for faltering in the latter last season. Vaughn is a north-south runner who forced 54 missed tackles last year, according to PFF, while over 700 of his rushing yards came after contact. Round 6 or 7 is right around where he’ll likely be going this summer, though I wonder if it’ll make Jones end up being a value.


Related

Round 7

[table id=1377 /]

My pick: Marvin Jones. Ah, yes. Anyone who has followed me for a while now knows how much I love Jones. Injuries have shortened each of his last two seasons but when Jones is active, he’s a great player. Despite missing three games last year, Jones was 12th in the league in end zone targets, while ranking 21st among qualified wideouts with an aDOT of 13.7. The Lions passing game attacked downfield at one of the highest rates in football, giving Jones massive upside, considering his targets mostly come deep down the field or in the end zone.

This was the round of the quarterbacks, as five signal-callers came off the board. Being able to get guys like this at this point of the draft is going to be possible in industry leagues, though in more average leagues, quarterbacks will go a bit earlier. I personally have Dak Prescott ranked the highest of this group, but I don’t have any qualms with the order they were selected. Given how efficient he is (0.51 fantasy points per drop back), Russell Wilson could threaten the likes of Mahomes and Jackson if the Seahawks finally let him air it out a bit more.

Round 8

[table id=1378 /]

My pick: Tom Brady. I easily could have kept waiting at the position but not loving many players on the board, I went with Brady, who I think is in line for a huge inaugural season in Tampa Bay. We know that Bruce Arians’ offenses love to push the ball down the field, as Jameis Winston led the league in deep attempts a season ago with 113, averaging over seven per game. Brady’s arm strength has definitely declined over the last few years, but he was actually ninth in the league in deep completion rate last year (41.7%). Among the veteran quarterbacks, Brady is my favorite in 2020.

Turns out I should have grabbed Hayden Hurst, who I love this year and debated with the pick. Sal took him towards the end of the round, leading to my tilt. I truly believe that the Falcons have big plans for their new tight end  After losing Hooper to the Browns, Atlanta immediately traded a second- and fifth-round pick for Hurst, which tells me that he was their contingency plan all along. Hurst, a former first-round pick, hauled in 30 of 40 targets last year and has plenty of potential. It was a smaller sample size but Hurst at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds finished sixth among all tight ends in yards per pass route (2.44) and seventh in yards per target (8.7). Give me Hurst easily over Rob Gronkowski, who went two picks prior.

I really liked the Kareem Hunt and Ronald Jones picks. Hunt should have come off the board well before the eighth round, as he has plenty of standalone PPR value, averaging nearly six targets per game last year. If anything were to happen to Nick Chubb, Hunt would be an easy top-10 running back. Jones, meanwhile, is losing appeal with everyone excited about his new teammate, but there is still a path to him winning that job and being the top back in what should be a very good offense. He needs to work on pass blocking, but as a between the tackles runner, he fits the part, averaging 5.1 yards per touch last year while averaging 1.46 yards created per touch, a top-20 number in the league.

Round 9

[table id=1379 /]

My pick: Jalen Reagor. Reagor has a chance of being the top-scoring rookie receiver in 2020. The Eagles have Alshon Jeffery, who has a questionable future with the franchise, and DeSean Jackson (always injured) in front of him. The former might not be ready for the start of the season, while Jackson played just three games all of last season. The TCU-product recorded 1,049 yards and nine touchdowns in 2018 but fell back down to earth last year. However, TCU had  awful quarterback play throughout the season. Per PFF, 31 percent of his targets were deemed catchable, easily the lowest rate among all receivers from this class. He’s right up there with Jerry Jeudy as the best separation artists in this class and despite being just 5-foot-11, Reagor hauled in 15 of 31 contested catch opportunities back in 2018. Reagor has big play potential, as nearly 52 percent of his catches over the last two seasons went for 15 yards or more.

Getting a player with as much upside as J.K. Dobbins in the ninth round is very, very enticing. Sure, at the moment he’s the backup to Mark Ingram. But assuming he passes Gus Edwards on the depth chart, Dobbins will get some standalone work because the Ravens didn’t commit to Ingram as a feature back last year. The veteran averaged just 13.4 carries per game last year and never reached the 20-carry mark in a game, despite playing on the run-heaviest offense in the NFL. Dobbins is more of a 2021 asset at the moment, but if Ingram were to go down, the rookie would be a surefire top-15 fantasy running back. That is plenty of upside in the ninth round of a draft.

I also really liked both the Jamison Crowder and Diontae Johnson picks. With Ben Roethlisberger back in the mix for the Steelers this year, Johnson has breakout potential. As a rookie in 2019 with awful quarterback play, Johnson still made plenty of noise, ranking 2nd among all receivers in broken tackles (9). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he also led the position in average separation (3.6). Crowder, meanwhile, probably doesn’t have the upside but he’ll give you security. Last year, the veteran saw at least seven targets in nine different games, while being targeted on 15 percent of his snaps

Round 10

[table id=1380 /]

My pick: Mike Gesicki. I wasn’t planning on having Gesicki as my starting tight end entering the draft but this is why you mock. I thought I could wait a bit longer at tight end but it didn’t pan out that way. Still, I’m not devastated to have Gesicki, who has plenty of upside. An uber-athletic player, Gesicki is in the 96th percentile in 40-time, 95th percentile in speed score, 99th percentile in both burst and agility score and 100th percentile in catch radius. The Dolphins used Gesicki as a receiver, not a tight end, as he lined up in the slot 72 percent of the time in 2019, the highest rate among anyone at his position. He was also third among all tight ends in routes and sported a 10.1 aDOT, giving him massive upside.

Getting a potential starting running back in Round 10 is rare but Greg did just that with the Jordan Howard pick. Yes, Matt Breida is in town, but Howard likely will serve as the early-down back in an offense that should be better in 2020. I could see Miami using Howard and Breida like how the Eagles used Howard and Sanders last year, which would lead to right around 13 carries per game.

Here is the rest of the draft. I will be doing a ton of these throughout the offseason so be on the lookout.


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