We’re launching a new season-long NFL Fantasy Football product here at Awesemo.com. Throughout the offseason, we’ll break down each of the NFL’s 32 teams from a Fantasy Football perspective, giving you our favorite picks, NFL sleepers, value plays, fades and sleepers. Other features will include positional breakdowns, tiered rankings, and mock drafts.
To start, Nolan Kelly highlights all the major coaching and personnel changes, followed by Ben Rasa’s fantasy takes. We’ll update each throughout the offseason as news breaks and some of the positional battles become clearer.
We’ll be releasing four team previews per week, starting June 25 and going through August 16, beginning with the AFC East.
***As part of our season-long, NFL DFS package, Awesemo will release his NFL Fantasy Football rankings in mid-July for premium members. The world’s number one ranked DFS player is going to use his DFS approach, applying it to season long fantasy to help you find value in your drafts.***
More on that, soon! If you’re not a member, sign up for Awesemo+ to get access to our premium rankings, projections and Slack Chat, including Awesemo’s weekly premium office hours, where he takes all your fantasy football questions.**
This week, we’re previewing the AFC South, with write-ups on the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts coming up. After that we’ll finish up the AFC with the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders.
Last day’s preview
- Key Fantasy Departures: Targets
- Offensive additions
- Best Ball ADP
- Positional breakdowns: QB, WR, RB, TE, O-line
- Preseason players to watch
- Betting guide
- NFL Fantasy players to target
- Biggest question mark
- Fantasy football sleepers
- Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings
- News and updates: check back throughout the next two months
- Final thoughts
Fantasy Football Overview
The Jaguars disappointed last year, weighed down by inept quarterback play of Blake Bortles and an injured offensive line. Nick Foles provides an upgrade at quarterback, but it remains to be seen what effect he can have on an untalented group around him, with some of the most uncreative play calling in the NFL.
John DeFilippo takes over offensive coordinator duties from the outgoing Nathanial Hackett. Defillippo was a disaster last year as the Vikings coordinator, but was quarterbacks coach under Frank Reich in Philadelphia. In 2015 he coordinated the Browns to a respectable 25th in total offence, behind career seasons from also-rans Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnridge.
Despite the fact that one of the main criticisms of DeFillippo last season was his unwillingness to run the ball, it’s safe to expect a more conservative, run-heavy approach, given the change in personnel, with Nick Foles occasionally heaving downfield to Dede Westbrook or Keelan Cole.
This defence, with the addition of 19th overall pick Josh Allen, will keep games tight, and
Key Fantasy Departures: Targets
- Donte Moncrief: 85
- TJ Yeldon: 70
- Other: 102
- Nick Foles: The Eagles Super Bowl hero had one decent fantasy season back in 2013 under Chip Kelly. Though he’s known for throwing a decent deep ball, though his average intended air-yards was dead last in the NFL last season.
- Chris Conley comes over from the Chiefs, where he was used sparingly. With Marqise Lee out, he should see some action in 3WR sets.
Best Ball ADP
- 28) Leonard Fournette
- 100) Dede Westbrook
- 189) Nick Foles
- 195) Ryquell Armstead
- 213) Marqise Lee
Mr. Clutch might be a decent real-life quarterback, but he’s certainly not a good fantasy one. There were rumblings last year that the Eagles had to alter the offence, tailoring it to Foles in order to protect him. Foles ranked 26th in the NFL in yards per attempt, and three of his five starts game against bottom dwelling pass defences. Carson Wentz, by comparison, ranked 11th. The Jaguars expect Foles to game manage the team back into the playoffs by riding the running game and letting the defence do what it does best. Unless you’re in 2QB leagues, Foles isn’t viable, but you probably already know that.
One of the great takeaways from DFS that’s also applicable to season long: targets are king. With the third most targets up for grabs, the Jaguars WRs are in an interesting fantasy spot.
As well, Blake Bortles gone and Marqise Lee seems likely to land on the PUP list come September after sustaining ACL and PCL injuries.
Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are great mid-to-late round fliers in your Fantasy Football drafts.
Both WRs were fantasy darlings in each of the past two seasons. Cole, if you’ll remember, rose into the top-90 picks on the basis of a strong end to the 2017 season, while Westbrook was a deep sleeper in 2017 after posting 13-288-2 in three preseason games.
With Wesbrook’s role in the slot, he should be safe bet to eat up targets from Foles in this offence. 1,000 yards isn’t out of the question.
As detailed below, the Jags were beset by injuries last season on the offensive line and that hampered Leonard Fournette’s production. They also found themselves down early and often, allowing opposing teams to score first in 10 of their final 12 games. Those kind of game scripts are not conducive to creating successful fantasy running backs.
Fournette found himself fell out of favor, and was in the doghouse with just about everyone in the Jags organization last year. He got into a fight, got ejected, got criticized for looking disinterested, all while battling an ankle injury. Fournette’s performance in 2019 was by far the worst of his career, with just 439 yards and 3.3 YPC. At his draft position, DFSers are banking on a rebound, but he’s only dropped about 15 spots since last year’s drafts.
The Jags lost TJ Yeldon, so there should be some work available on passing downs, which increases Fournette’s ceiling, but they’ve also added Alfred Blue and Thomas Rawls to the fold.
If things go sour, keep an eye on 5th round pick Ryquell Armstead, who tallied 1,100 yards and 5.2 YPC last season for Temple.
The Jags might have the worst fantasy TE situation in the entire NFL. None of these guys are remotely close to being draftable.
Third round pick Josh Oliver is an option in deep dynasty leagues, but I wouldn’t expect much in year one.
Pass block rank: 26th
Run block rank: 14th
You could make a strong case that the reason this team fell apart last season was that they suffered a huge downgrade in offensive line play, as the starting five were best by injuries. They fell ten points in their overall PFF run-blocking grade as unit after they were forced to start nine different combinations last year, giving up the third most sacks in the NFL (53). Guard Andrew Norwell disappointed after signing a massive deal last summer, while Cam Robinson returns this season from a torn ACL.
NFL Draft dropper Jawaan Taylor, who fell from a possible top-ten pick all the way to the Jags in the second round, is pencilled in at RT, though he may have to compete with incumbent Will Richardson.
On paper and when healthy, this should be one of the better units in the NFL.
Preseason Players to Watch
- Dede Westbrook: Chemistry with Foles?
- Leonard Fournette: Are things less contentious. No rumblings of unhappiness on either side?
- O-line: General health and how Jawaan Taylor looks.
Ben Rasa’s Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football and Betting Preview
Jacksonville Jaguars 2019 O/U Win Total – 8 (Over -105 , Under -125)
It’s debatable to say the Jaguars had a multi-year window where they were Super Bowl contenders, but there was no doubt a few years ago they were on the brink of breaking thru. That seems like another lifetime ago and now the Nick Foles era is set to take over in Jacksonville and will try to revive one of the worst offenses in the league.
Ben’s Favorite Player to Target
Dede Westbrook – WR
It’s certainly not a stacked wide receiver unit, but last year Westbrook led the team in almost all receiving categories and emerged as a key playmaker. With a QB upgrade he is poised to build on that progress and climb up the Fantasy WR rankings. Add in that he should be working a lot out of the slot which should allow him to rack up the catches and really bolster his PPR value this season. If you think that Bortles really was holding back Westbrook and Co. this is an obvious buy low spot as Westbrook should really benefit from an experienced QB like Foles under center.
What to do with Leonard Fournette?
Even though Foles will boost the passing game the Jags are led by Doug Marrone who clearly is a run first kind of guy and wants to be a run heavy offense. Like the Jags in general Fournette has had some ups and downs , but he returns healthy and ready to once again spearhead this entire offense. The offensive line has improved which is clearly a huge factor in any RB’s success and coming off a questionable at best year there may be some value in where Fournette falls on draft boards. If you can grab him late in the second or on the wrap around in the early 3rd round I think you will be set up well to return excellent value with the Jags top weapon.
Fantasy Football Sleepers
Chris Conley – WR
Limited options for under the radar players with an offense that on the surface seems pretty vanilla despite the upgrades. Chris Conley comes over from Kansas City where volume was the big issue since they are absolutely loaded on the offensive side. That may have kept him from showcasing his upside and if he truly is a premier player then that will emerge with his new situation. The Jags have a handful of wide receivers still on the roster, but nobody who really is assured of production and as we mentioned earlier Westbrook is going to be working a lot in the slot. This is a guy to monitor as preseason gets going and could be a viable waiver wire pickup if he goes undrafted in your leagues.
Awesemo’s NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
Check back in mid-July for season-long projections and rankings from the #1 Fantasy Sports Player.
Updated throughout preseason and training camp because we all know things can change quickly in the NFL.
As I’ve said in every preview the AFC South is a tough division and not much will separate the top from the bottom so it’s not like the Jags are out of the picture even with a somewhat bleak forecast. Nick Foles has the ability to get hot and although I’m not overly sold on him it’s hard to argue against him being a significant upgrade over Bortles. If the receivers and Fournette can stay healthy they will have enough firepower to at least keep teams honest and set it up for a defense that is still a quality unit despite being down a bit. From a fantasy perspective it’s not a team that’s going to be a priority , but grabbing a couple players that drop a few rounds certainly can pay dividends on your roster.